[Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16]

13 hours ago, ryanoroo said:

Just a quick question... Do the models factor in the recent eruption of popocatepetl in Mexico? as I remember reading that volcanic eruptions can cause a shift in winter weather somehow... or is this something that I made up???... sorry if off topic but if its something the models don't see/factor in then it could lead to a surprise further down the line.

Hi ryanoroo too, I think it would depend on the size of the eruption and it's latitude.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

11 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Some call this boring but I like it a lot, cold fine days and frosty nights with freezing fog patches from the Gfs 18z next week.

Indeed Frosty, my back garden has had an ice day today and will again tomorrow.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

11 hours ago, Singularity said:

Great to see you making such an upbeat post Tamara. I'm daring to dream a little too, and would unite like to hang my cautious hat up on the hook sometime in the next 20 days - though I'd still be putting it back on at times for any snow events coming into view

12z GFS has decided to take that shortwave that was loitering just S of Greenland on previous runs and scoot it across to Scandinavia. So the drama continues...

Hi both, thanks for your posts, l don't understand half but it's helping me advance, alibi slowly!

 

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Some very poor quality posts have been creeping into the discussion which really don't add anything to the thread apart from raising the ire of many who view this thread....Even a simpleton (in meteorological knowledge) like me can see that the NH air patterns are considerably different to last year with opportunities for cold air incursions and 'battleground' snowfall scenarios in the equation for parts of the UK........so please, post sensibly, respect other members opinions (even if you totally disagree with their viewpoint) and most of all, play nicely, or sadly some may find themselves being unable to play at all.....thanks everyone, and have a peaceful holiday season

I think this is a very good post. I don't understand half the stuff on the Mod discussusion most of the time but enjoy it all the same. Over the last week, some members have not only been rude but downright disrespectful to those (Tamara especially) who make a thoughtful, well balanced prediction based on their knowledge and years of experience. Fine, if you don't agree with someoneelse that's okay but showing a chart @ T3000 isn't helpful to newbies.

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

RyanSaunby

No SSW forecasted yet but Berlin charts this morning almost had one at like day 827/12/2014 12:19

 

 

Not sure what Chris Fawkes suggests is a Technical SSW?

Who is Ryan Saunby?

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Heavy snow showers in Birmingham - is this it for the Winter?  Hope not

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Did anyone catch ChrisFawkes's forecast on News 24 before midnight? Had bit of a ramp at end.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...]

If I may ask, how different are the models today from November/December '10?

[Spring 2012]

Given the mild temps we've had here this Winter, it'd be nice to have a cool spring this year. Frosty morning's with sunny afternoon's would be quite nice thank you!

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

The usual suspects....

[Call To Rampers - White Ops]

Why fly to Dublin when you could skate it!

[Call To Rampers - White Ops]

Oh, if only.....

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

In today's Grauniad;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/28/councils-unprepared-flood-risk