Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

muppet

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    77

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by muppet

  1. muppet
    Here's a question. How do you know when you have a good model fit? I looked at regressing CET with data from the previous one and two months for AO and also geo pot thickness 1000-500hPa. From 1950-2012 I got an Rsq of 94% but an average absolute error of 1.1C. Is this any good? If not, what is good? Thanks.
  2. muppet
    AO and NAO Dec to Feb anomalies have a correlation of +0.79
  3. muppet
    I think that AO plotted against geop 500hPa is worth a look when time.
  4. muppet
    AO is pretty good with geopotential (my proxy for snow).
  5. muppet
    A couple more Winter correlations to Winter NH snow cover. All three look interesting.
  6. muppet
    The NOAA site does some superb correlation maps. Here is geopotential 500mb height correlated with Northern Hemisphere snow cover.
  7. muppet
    No problem. I will start correlating some stuff to geopotential 500mb height, which I think is a better indicator of snow potential than 2m air temp.
  8. muppet
    http://t.co/3vn9J9oB these give tabulated dam thickness. ⛄ I'm sure the closer to 5220 the more chance of snow. Geopotential height of 500 mb correlated with a range of factors would be superb. I may give one a go when time.
  9. muppet
    Great link. Thanks. That really makes sense. Which factor are you looking at next? I'm hooked.
  10. muppet
    What a fantastic thread. Can't wait until the next instalment. I have looked at years when the PDO is negative and ENSO is neutral (like now) and the average Winter CET is 0.8C below the 30 year average. What does de trended mean and how do you do it?
  11. muppet
    oh, and I assume it is a forecast until midnight is it Paul?
  12. muppet
    fantastic answer. thank you very much.
  13. muppet
    does anyone know when the rain forecast is run please? http://www.netweathe...ction=wira;sess= I know it is 4 times a day but at what time please? It also says the figures are for total amounts each day, but surely they only total future amounts, rather than back casting the day? eg a forecast at 6pm will forecast the total from 6pm-midnight as opposed to midnight - midnight? also - why don't the totals equal the same totals as the full 7 day, 3 hourly breakdown? http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx2;sess= I've tried adding 8am-8am, 9am-9am and midnight-midnight totals, but none seem to tally. Are they from different forecasts? thank you for any help.
  14. muppet
    thanks for the responses so far from teachers. any more is thankfully received.
  15. muppet
    I would appreciate it if any teachers in the UK would be willing to contribute to a quick bit of research on the teaching and learning of climate and weather in schools. In particular I'm after teachers who teach weather/climate which probably amounts to Primary and Secondary geography or science. I have set up a very short 10 question multi-choice survey at http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/KSWCL7C Thanks in advance :-)
  16. muppet
    any ideas?
  17. muppet
    Many thanks, I wondered which stations were included?
  18. muppet
    84 views and nobody knows? Does that mean that it is just the owner / curator of the site who makes the CET tracker? thanks.
  19. muppet
    does anyone know how the netweather cet value is calculated exactly? www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess= which stations does it include and how is it worked out?
  20. muppet
    all three techniques suggesting a mid 7 finish at the moment. my graph is now charting all three systems of forecast and how they compare to the cet in question. hadley cet netweather cet and shawbury proxy cet. click below
  21. muppet
    looking like its going to be sub 8 at the rate it's going.
  22. muppet
    my estimate for the month's cet is now shown in my new signature below.
  23. muppet
    thanks o.p. I did find -11.9C 20th Jan 1838 but I agree with your highest value. that's very kind of you to help.
  24. muppet
    ... and lowest please.
  25. muppet
    what is the highest daily cet of all time for any month please?
×
×
  • Create New...