[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

Here's a question. How do you know when you have a good model fit?

I looked at regressing CET with data from the previous one and two months for AO and also geo pot thickness 1000-500hPa. From 1950-2012 I got an Rsq of 94% but an average absolute error of 1.1C.

Is this any good? If not, what is good?

Thanks.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

AO and NAO Dec to Feb anomalies have a correlation of +0.79

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

I think that AO plotted against geop 500hPa is worth a look when time.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

AO is pretty good with geopotential (my proxy for snow).

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

A couple more Winter correlations to Winter NH snow cover.

All three look interesting.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

The NOAA site does some superb correlation maps.

Here is geopotential 500mb height correlated with Northern Hemisphere snow cover.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

No problem.

I will start correlating some stuff to geopotential 500mb height, which I think is a better indicator of snow potential than 2m air temp.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

http://t.co/3vn9J9oB these give tabulated dam thickness. ⛄

I'm sure the closer to 5220 the more chance of snow.

Geopotential height of 500 mb correlated with a range of factors would be superb.

I may give one a go when time.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

Great link. Thanks. That really makes sense.

Which factor are you looking at next?

I'm hooked.

[Teleconnections and long range forecasting]

What a fantastic thread. Can't wait until the next instalment.

I have looked at years when the PDO is negative and ENSO is neutral (like now) and the average Winter CET is 0.8C below the 30 year average.

What does de trended mean and how do you do it?

["will It Rain?" Nw Forecast Question]

oh, and I assume it is a forecast until midnight is it Paul?

["will It Rain?" Nw Forecast Question]

fantastic answer. thank you very much.

["will It Rain?" Nw Forecast Question]

does anyone know when the rain forecast is run please?

http://www.netweathe...ction=wira;sess=

I know it is 4 times a day but at what time please?

It also says the figures are for total amounts each day, but surely they only total future amounts, rather than back casting the day?

eg a forecast at 6pm will forecast the total from 6pm-midnight as opposed to midnight - midnight?

also - why don't the totals equal the same totals as the full 7 day, 3 hourly breakdown?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx2;sess=

I've tried adding 8am-8am, 9am-9am and midnight-midnight totals, but none seem to tally. Are they from different forecasts?

thank you for any help.

[Teachers Needed]

thanks for the responses so far from teachers.

any more is thankfully received.

[Teachers Needed]

I would appreciate it if any teachers in the UK would be willing to contribute to a quick bit of research on the teaching and learning of climate and weather in schools.

In particular I'm after teachers who teach weather/climate which probably amounts to Primary and Secondary geography or science.

I have set up a very short 10 question multi-choice survey at

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/KSWCL7C

Thanks in advance :-)

[Netweather Cet?]

any ideas?

[Netweather Cet?]

Many thanks, I wondered which stations were included?

[Netweather Cet?]

84 views and nobody knows?

Does that mean that it is just the owner / curator of the site who makes the CET tracker?

thanks.

[Netweather Cet?]

does anyone know how the netweather cet value is calculated exactly?

www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

which stations does it include and how is it worked out?

[March CET]

all three techniques suggesting a mid 7 finish at the moment.

my graph is now charting all three systems of forecast and how they compare to the cet in question.

hadley cet

netweather cet and

shawbury proxy cet.

click below

[March CET]

looking like its going to be sub 8 at the rate it's going.

[March CET]

my estimate for the month's cet is now shown in my new signature below.

[February CET]

thanks o.p.

I did find -11.9C 20th Jan 1838

but I agree with your highest value.

that's very kind of you to help.

[February CET]

... and lowest please.

[February CET]

what is the highest daily cet of all time for any month please?