fergieweather

Ha! The forecasting headaches of late certainly haven't changed...(epitomised below)!

No worries! I assume the misconception is simply because the primary deterministic global model we use on TV graphics is ECMWF (although we can, & some of us periodically do, also show GFS & UKMO-GM for comparative purposes such as the lead-up saga we endured into Christmas Day). The principal mesoscale/regional model we used was, until a fortnight ago, Euro4 (with its raw output edited as needed by DTN forecast team). However with that model now retiring, we've switched to UKVx as the default. None of this feeds into the app, however - both it, plus TV site max/mins & 7-day outlooks are MOS driven, as prior explained. Cheers

No, it isn't a replication of ECMWF deterministic (a common misconception). The BBC wx app - as with MeteoGroup/DTN's WeatherPro - is fed by DTN's proprietary MOS data, using statistical blend *including* ECMWF output. It can also be tweaked as needed throughout the day by DTN forecasters, who can 'group select' locations in a given area to update their respective site-specific solutions shown in the app (eg based on radar, obs etc).

Hi Tim, yup - absolutely. For those of us who accept the meteorological calendar as a mere statistical construct & instead pay attention to the astronomical version, winter '21-22 is in its mere infancy and where we've ended-up by March is intriguing - if currently imponderable - speculation. On face-value, so many pointers favour a colder outcome (broadly so, especially for parts of Europe but with UK periodically being in-play). However, to what extent that relies on outcome with the stratospheric polar vortex & the degree of offset (to otherwise cold historical analogues) from background climate warming is a learning curve we are now riding-on through the coming weeks!

Hi Tim, in all fairness to UKMO these updates you mention are just one of the many forecast duties performed by (I assume still - certainly was, quite recently) a deputy chief forecaster on a busy shift of many pressing tasks, some of greater immediacy. They're predicated on the 2x weekly updates of extended ECMWF output, plus - when/if relevant - any conflicting strong signal from Glosea6. Thus the continuity of overall emphasis won't necessarily change day-to-day, as that would become an unfathomable mess reacting run-to-run. In similar vein, the BBC Monthly outlook is also tied to ECMWF updates, albeit over many recent weeks they've (DTN) purposely leaned to caution over that model's solution(s) beyond a ~2 week lead due to poor performance, heading instead in favour of statistical models/analogues. So the UKMO longer-lead switches aren't down to forecasters being volatile(!), but instead the modelling. They're compiled in good faith from the available evidence as they see it, in simplified format, very much as are the BBC ones (ie translating into a public-facing style the more 'technical' sub-seasonal forecasts that DTN issue 2x weekly). It can be a poison chalice writing these, especially in winter. Cheers.

Hail, I think from the photos & videos I saw a few days ago of this event. Plus reportedly that camel photo is a prior one from another Middle East location a year or two ago.

Hi Michael, by the time I joined the BBC Weather fold in 2007 you'd moved-on from WX Centre days (albeit leaving the likes of Rob M, Peter G & a few others to 'carry the flag' from prior halcyon days!). Nonetheless it was always a pleasure to chat with you & hear your sage views on our daily regional UKMO conference calls when you were covering BBC SE at Tunbridge Wells. Like so many others have expressed, you were an inspiration in my younger days - and your memorable broadcasts through some key weather events have become inimitable parts of BBC history. You have been at the vanguard of UK weather broadcasting and I wish you all the very best for your well-earned retirement. Meanwhile, Merry Christmas & Happy New Year!

Actually it's an entirely competent mesoscale/European domain model (& indeed proved exceptionally useful on numerous occasions as a forecasting tool during the 2021 Formula One season, for various agencies). Alongside ARPEGE, EURO4 (RIP!) & others, always perused by e.g. UKMO duty Chief Forecaster in overall assessments. Lately we are seeing a repeated saga of various operational models expressing themselves run-to-run across a varied span of respective ensemble envelopes and indeed at longer lead times, not helped by ongoing poor performance of sub-seasonal models particularly beyond ~wk2. And winter (strictly) hasn't even started until tomorrow...