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wxmatt

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  1. wxmatt
    It's been a super slow slog, but we are finally seeing some life in real-time:
  2. wxmatt
    The zonal wind chart (top) and EP flux (bottom) show significant first-in-the-season changes. From my understanding of EP Flux, having that turn northward (if this model is correct of course) will increase the probability of strato-to-trop propagation.
  3. wxmatt
    18z GFS is showing an active 10mb pattern by early January:
  4. wxmatt
    I have found it very interesting these last few years that the GFS is much more skillful at 10mb than at 500mb and especially at the surface. Your explanation, Chi, of the general stability at that level makes sense to me. The GFS has been consistent on this development this entire week, so I believe something is definitely there. Will be interesting to see if it can persist and if additional waves will develop and propagate. The 11-15 day GFS suggests this is the case.
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