BleakMidwinter
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Posts posted by BleakMidwinter
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1 hour ago, SunSean said:
Looking like a woeful start to September! The grey skies and unuseable weather lovers will be in absolute paradise!! Lol.
I get a kind of "reverse SAD" so for me, summer is a terrible time, and I struggle horribly as everyone around me celebrates the blue skies and hot temps and dry weather...
Now I can see the autumnal weather on the horizon, I already feel better. I wake up more alertly in the mornings, I sleep more soundly, I feel taller and lighter, I am *interested* in the world around me more, I care about stuff more, I laugh and smile more... I no longer wake up feeling grimly determined to drag myself through yet another day with "no air in the air" as it feels to me.
It isn't only "ooh, I love winter!" - it is also that hot dry weather is as difficult for me as the dark cold weather is for the SAD-sufferers...-
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3 hours ago, Seasonal Trim said:
I look forward to all the coldies coming out of hibernation to join us for another few months for the chase.
Did someone call?
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54 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Think if I hadn't edited I might have been burned at the stake judging by the reaction
Nah, you're alright - we'd never have got the matches to light in this wind
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51 minutes ago, philglossop said:
Roof has gone from Sennon Lifeboat station as well.
Startling footage of it going too - sheet metal behaving like a sheet on the clothesline!
Landed on live wires in the street too... lucky nobody hurt...
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1 minute ago, Justin1705 said:
I'm near luton airport. Planes taking of directly into the dw winds, watching the wings from side to side I'd hate being on a flight today. Was very calm and blue skies recently but the winds have picked up steady gusty breeze with the occasional roof ratler. Expecting a lot more between 12/2 but it's coming- people will be fooled by the evidently calm and warm sunshine this morning.
My parents flew into Heathrow on the very last flight allowed to land as the 1§987 hurricane hit... and that was only because it was Cathay Pacific whose crews were used to flying and landing in typhoon conditions!
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5 minutes ago, Yarmy said:
Just 7mph off the English record. Could it go today?
Strewth!!!!!!!
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Just now, Liam Burge said:
I am not saying that, so stop the sarcasm.
What I am saying is the wind gusts for 8am-9am peaked at 45mph for that hour, whereas the forecasts all had it peaking for that hour at 60mph+. What this could show is the system may be potentially weaker for my area than models previously suggested.
Ah right! Thanks, I was confused there! Yes, that makes sense...
I think one factor might be that the start of the Red was pushed back a little to start at 7am - last night it was a 5am expected start and iirc originally 3am, so presumably the whole thing has approached slightly later than originally expected?
I know a lot of coastal places are hugely relieved that their high tide has now been and gone and is starting to recede, prior to the storm surge arriving, where originally it looked as if the surge and high water would coincide disastrously...-
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4 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Electricity repair estimate from ESB 12:45, but I'll take that with a pinch of salt given the work they'll have today.
When the wind arrives, it doesn't provide much warning!
Wow, that's abrupt!
Hope you get your electric back on soon - many thanks for your updates, they've helped me explain to friends that it isn't *only* Britain being affected by this...!-
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2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Talking about 8am-9am.
Riight.
So what you're saying is that, during a period several hours before the peak, your peak was below the peak, yes?
okay.-
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12 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Same here; was forecast 60mph gusts from the Met and I would say it peaked at around 45mph
Peaked? It's still building for an hour or so yet!
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40 minutes ago, SnowBear said:
Gusting storms such as tomorrows can actually be more damaging than a constant speed low order Cat1 hurricane.
With a hurricane the wind increases gradually, and is mostly constant, whereas what we will see tomorrow in gusts is more like a hammer.
So it's a bit like a pane of glass in a tank which might withstand say 100kg pressure if its gradually filled up, but if the pressure is all of a sudden applied it will probably break.
My old home in Edinburgh sat 30m below, with nothing at all in between, the Blackford Observatory station which recorded the 102mph gust in Storm Ulli - at exactly that time, a huge heavy Victorian cast-iron skylight was wrenched out of our roof (on the leeward side of the roof, at that), and landed three storeys down in the back garden as a startling piece of twisted metal. Neighbours two gardens away found broken window-glass shards across their gardens...
We were lucky the damage wasn't worse, and that it landed harmlessly in gardens, but a gust can do serious damage...-
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Grey and drizzly here in Telford, but looking forward to some colder weather soon, preferably of the white and blizzardy variety! I shall never forget early December 2017 when we had a foot of snow on the Friday (7th?) from the NW and then another foot on the Sunday from the SW, two totally unrelated weather systems giving me more snow than I'd ever had in my life to play with!
I keep hoping...-
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7 hours ago, Beanz said:
Is there any chance we could limit the amount of tweets in this thread, it’s becoming impossible to follow the informative messages and really slows down the loading time.
cheers
You can click on a message and set that user to "ignore posts" - it means you miss anything of interest, but it does mean you can skip the tweets...
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37 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Report on the DMI temperatures.....
Wow,wow, wow...….
Down by a huge 2.03C since yesterday to 250.6K This is only 1.5C warmer than the lowest level reached during the last 'Ozone invasion' of the stratosphere.
It seems likely to go lower.....I will check the latest Ozone map charts for yesterday now...….
Even more WOWS!
This shows that the Ozone anomaly in the last 24 hours has grown even stronger in the Bering/Chukchi areas. but even more chilling is that the anomaly is back-building in towards Siberia. The waves controlling these developments all move from west to east, so that it looks as if the high anomaly will persist for a few more days yet.
All of which begins to strengthen (or at the very least help to confirm or deny) the position I am taking for Ozone being one of the cogs of Climate change (Global warming, etc).
KW has been showing reports of cold from Canada, the USA, Norway, Finland and Sweden, and we had, only 3 days ago, the reports of the record breaking lows in central Siberia, after a week of bone-chilling cold. When the reports come out at the end of the month I expect to see many more cold records beaten than warmer ones. This would be a first for many years.
I can now safely assume since I forecast this to happen and against the model forecasts and predictions, that the items shown by KW (and others) about the record cold temperatures (sometimes lowest ever), on all the continents of the northern hemisphere, are infact not just fluke and cannot be discarded as 'weather'.
I will have to be patient and wait until the Ozone moves away before any long term conclusions can be drawn.
But I am sure that a period of extreme cold in the Arctic, will have impacts on the temperature of the northern hemisphere as a whole.
Other predictions I will now make are that is that the Arctic Atlantic front will move much further south this year to the sort of positions it occupied in and around the year 2000. We might even see the Iceland ice bridge again this year.
I am not certain yet what is in store for the Pacific side. It is possible that the two sides will cancel each other out, caused by warmth in and around Alaska.
In other predictions the Mosaic project will have further major problems in crossing the Arctic and that news from the project will become less and less frequent,
oh yes, and above all this is the forecast that none of this is mentioned by the IPCC in the Rel 6 debates, next month in Madrid
MIA
This is all right on the edge of my comprehension but you're explaining it brilliantly, even for a non-chemist - thankyou!
re KW's posts, unfortunately, I've had to set to 'ignore' as my RSI-wrists can't cope with scrolling through 20 or 30 Tweets in a single post-
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On 22/10/2019 at 07:57, MattStoke said:
Probably hills only. Unless we get some very strong evaporative cooling.
Well, it was the forecast for my 150m asl postcode, so not that hilly
It's vanished now, replaced by biblical deluges of rain all day Friday... -
Er.... presumably this is unlikely to happen?!
XC's forecast for Telford: 14cm of snow on Friday!
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6 hours ago, Stelmer said:
A seasonal Winter would be awesome, there's nothing worse than a mild wet winter when 10ºC is considered ''freezing'' and commercial buildings are hot enough to cultivate ''special'' plants. However, the sensible homeowner in me would prefer mild as it'll be cheaper on gas!
No, no - if you keep a nice thick 10" or more of snow on your roof, you end up with fabulous insulation!
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1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:
I think also in places like the US it's a legal obligation to shovel snow from the "sidewalks" in front of your home. In the UK it isn't, people just leave it to go hard & icy. If people got off their backsides & did the same we wouldn't have as many problems but most people these days have a "not my problem" attitude. Places like New York can have something like 24 inches in as many hours - I was over there in Feb 2003 when that happened but apart from the airport shutting down for a while not much else did, it was still as bustly as ever. I can understand in more rural communities it would be difficult if we got another 62/63 but I think in the end in more built up areas people would cope but then again we just don't know, we can only speculate.
We had snow on the ground at the end of November 2010 & most of December 2010 with very little thawing apart from the milder blip around mid December but I don't recall major supermarkets shutting for any length of time or difficulties getting essentials like bread & milk etc. Again in more rural spots with nothing around for miles it would be difficult. I live in a semi rural part of a town where I live but at the same time I'm only a 10 mins drive from a large Tesco & Morissons. I had a hard time getting deliveries from Amazon etc but other than that outside in shops it was just quieter than normal. It was great getting served quick. Also I don't think you had falling snow every single day for six weeks because there was a mild blip nationwide in the December which would have broken the cycle before the cold surged back.
Oh, it turned out that it is a legal obligation in the UK as well but it's so rare for it to be a problem, esp in Edinburgh, that nobody knew, or had tools, etc... eventually people started to get the hang of it but by then there was so much compacted on most pavements it was impossible. We were lucky in the street I used to live in, a little dead-end lane, because we had one 87-year-old and one 65-year-old and they nipped out sharpish after each fall and cleared a track to the main road - then the 87-year-old went on holiday, and the woman next door and I tried and totally failed to keep on top of it and in the end after a weke she had to get three hefty builders from her work to come and clear it for cash!
Edinburgh has its own micro-climate - that winter of 2009-2010 when the entire UK was blanketed in snow? Literally not a single lying flake and hardly any falling. I was lamp-post watching in despair. Then late Nov 2010 it walloped in like anything, and I stopped bothering (!) to measure it once it was over 20 inches in the back garden. Week after week it was that deep, hardly any vehicles moved, it was amazing. I used to go out on foot with our wooden sledge to help folk home with their shopping. We hadn't had snow like that since 1979-80 winter, my first one living there as a child.
I may be mistaken about it being every single day, but if you have access to records, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Edinburgh didn't have that warm blip in December. Certainly there was nothing resembling a thaw. My recollection is that there was fresh snow every single morning because I was going out before dawn to sweep a path to the birdbath, to fill it, having swept ice and water out at dusk each evening (because it was less effort than trudging back and forth with kettles trying to thaw a frozen birdbath in the morning!). That first winter when I was ten we had two weeks when it didn't go above zero celsius and I remember thinking it must surely be very similar with the snow needing swept every morning.
Telford, on the other hand, had incredible snow on Dec 7/8 2017, when we had an incredible blizzard from a NWerly Cheshire Gap Streamer, on the Friday, followed on the Sunday by blizzards coming up from the SW from a totally separate weather system. By the Tuesday when I tried to unbury the car it took over two hours to shift the frozen snow, which was 27cm deep on the roof of the car and had frozen completely in -12C overnights... I learnt then never to leave a car buried if you plan to use it before spring-
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On 12/09/2019 at 18:15, Frost HoIIow said:
I see your point but past severe Winters also relied on the transport network for bringing in supplies...not everyone had an allotment or their own food supply. There was still shops back in 62/63....which funnily enough needed transportation to get in the supplies. In regards to the power network we don't really know how it will cope. Not enough to panic about it. If things get bad in regards to supplies like food why not call in the army?
I think the bigger problem will be childcare - majority of teachers drive to work, many of them long distances, so schools are often closed with comparatively minor snow.
If we had major snow and ice, and schools were closed, how many people will have to take time off work to look after their kids? If people are unable to get to work, that means shops may not all open or only short hours, public transport may not have enough drivers, etc., etc.
It became a problem in many places in a small way two years ago, but I think in the event of serious and prolonged cold winter weather, the closed schools and the domino effect from there (no pizza deliveries, come to that!) will be the bigger problem.
Bear in mind that when Edinburgh had its "Big Freeze" starting late Nov 2010, the post office promptly bolted closed all postboxes, and Tesco and Amazon both refused to take any online orders for anywhere in the wider region for weeks.
And that did need the Army in the end - come the eventual stop, after something like six weeks with falling snow every day, the pavements across almost all the city had 8-10 inches of compacted snow-ice, so everyone had to walk in the roads (most of which had been impassable for most of the previous weeks). In some areas, pneumatic drills had to be used to break it up.-
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23 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:
3.8'c last night, with a ground frost.
ealiest in this area for 40 years, according to bablake weather
The frost-watch discussion thread has been saying how unusual a Sept frost is!
Steady rain here and distinctly cooler than before. I absolutely love this time of year, filling the freezer with soups and stews, and baking lots of bread, and making crumbles to have with custard, mmmm.... and getting my lovely cosy winter woollies out again
Rumours starting of a distinctly cold second half to winter - and no, not just the Express's annual SNOWMAGEDDON!!! hysteria, proper actual analysis seems to be cautiously and warily suggesting we check our thermal undies are in order https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-forecast-beast-from-the-east-coldest-winter-latest-a9096601.html -
It looks as if the wind has veered to be more northerly than initially forecast, so the bulk of Monday's rain is further south... tonight, and Wedensday currently look like the main days for the Midlands, but it's all a bit unpredictable!
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2 hours ago, syed2878 said:
I see the West Midlands is under Met office yellow warning for rain starting for a M Monday and it is valid on till 12 o’clock Thursday I wonder if this will come off or is it going to be a another Phalia like Fridays thunderstorm warning
It's all likely to be a bit soggy, that's certain!
the problem is that it's the flailing throw-off from the storms centred down on/near Brittany, and as they flail round anti-clockwise they swirl across the lower part of this island and the upper curved part comes across anywhere from the Tyne to the Wash, and it's just not quite clear how and where and when and how much!
I'm wary about the East Coast warnings, though, because I remember how much snow we got in Telford off the East Coast snow warnings - if it's at just the right angle for a Humber streamer, it can get right the way across to us!-
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Increasingly heavy sleet here in Telford, but in the last ten minutes it's changed to distinct snow, large snowflakes floating about like feathers, although still very wet when they land against the window-glass and of course not settling.
(I'm having A Day In Bed after various work-trips and whatnot, and it is utterly splendid, sitting up idly knitting with bread rising in the kitchen and soup ready for lunch, and sleet lashing down outside! Horrible for all of the rest of you, I know, but I'm enjoying looking out at it from in here! )-
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Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I've seen that happen in the Balkans in 1996 - blazing hot 40Ccentral-south European summer, two days of grey rain, bang into freezing winter... in September!