Weatherwatcher
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Winds are only a part of it, 175mph or 125mph, most of that coast is below or near sea level, the storm surge is now banked up and wont drop away until Rita is past, bit like a snow plough, once the snow is banked up a change in speed by the plough wont effect the amount of snow thats accumulated.
Evacs were and are correct, Katrina weakened in a similar fashion before land fall due to dry air, it still caused an immense amount of damage, a large portion from storm surge and flooding.
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Evacuations are completely correct as she will probably land as at least a cat2 with floodling likely but a lot of people who have left will be relatively unaffected unlike with a cat5. IMO this sort of situation gives more weight to the band of people who say "i'll always sit these out" due to the media hype and now the likely much weakened Rita making landfall. Yes, some areas will see a lot of damage, areas that are prone to flooding, but wind wont be as bad as anticipated 24 hours ago.
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Looks like she is falling apart but there's still some hours left. Makes me wonder if anyone will take an evacuation seriously again there as many are talking of 175mph winds and now COULD get 125 max
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She seems to be very ragged now. Dry air has got to her from the western side by the looks of things and the eye is quite weak. Reports of cat 3 winds but the pressure is still in line with a cat 4.
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Damnit, What's the chances of another EWR before landfall?
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Anyone's guess
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Well once the outer eyewall reaches the inner eyewall it should overcome it and the EWR cycle will then be complete. Then Rita will have time to restrengthen before landfall. It's bad news if you're in Louisiana I'd suggest.
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294
URNT12 KNHC 222219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/22:11:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
089 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2326 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 054 deg 124 kt
G. 312 deg 019 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 9 C/ 3065 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. CO14/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 11
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z
Just two hours ago it was C018-48
The outer eyewall seems to be contracting fairly rapidly.
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She just needs to wind herself up again which could take a few hours but if she can fight off the predicted shear and get over that warm eddy she has a chance of going sub-900 again.
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it's a slight input from Phillipe, but just enough for me to be concerned.
Saying that, Rita is OFF ON ONE as she's gone for another WNW jolt.
Rita is wobbling more than a Jordie female on a friday night.
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lol
They shouldnt let these Geordies go on holiday to the Bahamas in peak hurricane season.
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000
URNT12 KNHC 221948Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1913Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
89 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2329 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 43 DEG 133 KT
G. 309 DEG 10 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 13 C/ 3059 M
J. 20 C/ 3044 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C018-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
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Pressure down to 914, from 915mb after the EWR. Eye looks to be clearing and intensity estimates are increasing.
She could be setting herself for round two, an even bigger shot at taking the no1 spot rather than settling for no3, with an even greater windfield this time.
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URNT12 KNHC 221127
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/11:10:10Z
B. 25 deg 07 min N
088 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2287 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 040 deg 133 kt
G. 304 deg 009 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 11 C/ 3062 m
J. 27 C/ 3064 m
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E03/20/16
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 159 KT NE QUAD 09:16:30 Z
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STADIUM EFFECT -- TOP OF WESTERN EYEWALL BRIGHTENING AS SUN RISES
EYE IS CLOUD FILLED BELOW FLIGHT LEVEL
Yeah, think we are seeing the effects of an EWR
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The more Rita tracks towards LA rather than TX the longer she will spend over the vital GOM heat loop which is keeping her at such intensity.
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Looks very deadly. On fox this morning a pilot who flew into the middle shew photos of what she looked like from the middle. On photo looked like a big bowl of cloud. Very cool. I think it will be border line cat 3/4 when it makes landfall
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URNT12 KNHC 220942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/09:12:20Z
B. 24 deg 55 min N
087 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2245 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 303 deg 134 kt
G. 228 deg 010 nm
H. 902 mb
I. 14 C/ 3068 m
J. 29 C/ 3057 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 1618A RITA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 165 KT NE QUAD 05:34:00 Z
STADIUM EFFECT LIT BY MOONLIGHT AND BY LIGHTNING WITHIN EYEWALL
Oh how it would be great to see that but NOT have to experience the winds of the eyewall of course!
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Although this is unpublished research, I can say that it is not an entirely maverick idea -- various other researchers are looking at connections between solar output, field sectors, and terrestrial weather.
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I have read briefly about solar activity having influence on our climate - eg solar flares, but I am a novice. However, I do believe that this science is definitely going to be a big part of our future climate research and will become more mainstream as intelligence grows.
Talking of the chances of two Bahamas majors in a month, perhaps we will see a Bahamas season regularly, as we see the Cape Verde season.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
ON RECORD...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.
PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE
THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
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668
WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...
DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.
FORECASTER STEWART
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"Max Mayfield just said on KTRK 899mb and that the dropsonde had gone crazy because the winds were "just that strong"."
That's what I've heard guys from an American message board.
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So she may slip back to a cat 4 but be as ferocious as Katrina with a similar storm surge??
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If she sustains cat 5 for long enough the storm surge will be as ferocious, that's the worrying thing. She is moving fairly quickly so there won't be that much time to weaken once she gets close to landfall.
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just been looking at the temps on land where Hr Rita is located in Florida today it was 85oF but in texas it was 96oF, so taking these temps in mind if Rita is sitting in the coolers seas of the florida coast its will track into slightly warmer water of the coast of texas. So i would imagine that as the Hr approches landfall it will possible maintain its Cat 5 status as the warmer waters will feed the storm system.
a simple observation but is there more to the mechanics than this ????
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Think we need to bear in mind the shelf will mean as she appraoches the coast Rita has less and less ocean mass to draw energy from. Being such a powerful system, this could have an impact and dare I say it weaken her slightly, but hey, I;m no expert.
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Does anyone know what the blisterlike clouds are towards the edge of Rita?
I believe they are particularly strong thunderstorms, possibly tornadic cells.
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My sister has recently moved to Sulphur Springs Texas which is around 70 miles from Dallas, does anyone think this area will be hit?
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Well Dallas is quite a way inland...and I know a lot of evacuees are heading there so you shouldn't see the very worst of the storm. I'd still expect some significant rainfall.
Hurricanes normally weaken when they hit land.
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Can anyone see what I think are vortices in the eye? I think only seen with majors.
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lol, ok Bottom right in the see, last 4-5 frames, the air bounces into the rear of Rita.
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Surely she's just wrapping convection round herself? :blink:
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This is pretty exciting (sad?!) just watching how quickly Rita is strengthening but thoughts go out to all those in TX.
How strong can she get? Doesnt she have two full days left without any land intervention with the warmest waters to come?
Hurricane Rita.
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Hurricane Rita part 2:
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=20773