NorthNSW

Summary here for the past five days (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Sep 20th - 14.4ºC/24.7ºC - 0.2mm Sep 21st - 14.0ºC/23.5ºC - Nil Sep 22nd - 14.3ºC/24.2ºC - Nil Sep 23rd - 14.4ºC/24.2ºC - Nil Sep 24th - 14.5ºC/22.0ºC - 1.4mm Past five days: A warm and pleasant few days. A little light rain fell in the early morning of the 21st (contributing to the 20th's rainfall). A couple of showers and weak storms managed to form in the dry conditions on the 21st ahead of the trough, but those stayed on the ranges. Fine conditions on the 22nd and 23rd. A trough moved through during the early morning of the 24th, and stalled not too far to our north later that morning and into the afternoon. Weak, high-based convection late that morning largely produced virga showers with the odd bit of lightning (mainly offshore). High-based storms then fired on the ranges to our west and northwest around midday, with some of this activity continuing towards the coast in the early afternoon which brought a lightning-active storm here (but little rain falling because it was high-based). The upcoming week (Sep 25th to Oct 1st): A light drizzly shower or two is possible this evening/overnight in weak onshore E/SE'ly winds. A high pressure system should bring fine weather from tomorrow morning until Saturday afternoon. A cold front and associated trough are expected to move into the state on Friday, and continue moving through eastern parts on Saturday. Some light rain is expected to fall here during Saturday afternoon and into the night. Reasonably warm mid/upper temps will inhibit storm activity in the local area, that's not to say a couple of isolated storms won't develop in the marginal conditions, but I'd give the slight chance of storm here on Saturday afternoon. Sunday should clear to a fine day. A high pressure system near Tasmania is expected to turn winds easterly on Monday, but it should remain fine. Heading down to the Southern Highlands of NSW in the morning. Looks like the weather might be touch-and-go for the wedding on Friday I'll be attending though. Hopefully the showers/storms hold off until around 2pm, as the ceremony will be over by then. ~~~~~ The month of October: Warm days and mild nights usually sums up October temps. Maximum temps average 23.2ºC, and minimum temps average 15.1ºC. Record high max is 39.2ºC (22/10/1988) and record low min is 7.8ºC (07/10/1966). Humidity usually starts to build toward the end of the month. Humidity/moisture has been rather scant in recent weeks though, not that September should be humid, but you'd think we were in western NSW with these very dry conditions. October is one of the drier months of the year (fourth driest on average). The average rainfall for October is 94.2mm, but still somewhat wetter than September. The storm season picks up in October. Warmer temps, increased (and more reliable) moisture, with the occasional cold front or trough system passing through providing that nice little trigger for storm activity. There can be some nasty setups in October. Severe storms are guaranteed to occur in the local region, whether you are fortunate/unfortunate enough to get hit by one is another thing.

A lightning active high-based storm passed through this afternoon. Not much rain, just 1.4mm due to the high-based nature of the storm and dry air near the surface. Lots of CGs, a really spectacular storm lightning-wise. Feel sorry for the holidaymakers at the campsites. They would have been sweating bullets being underneath those tall Norfolk Pines with that frequent lightning, hopefully they had the sense to retreat to the car rather than stay in their tents. Below is a picture of the lightning the cell produced in one hour as it approached from the NW, moved straight over South West Rocks and out to sea:

Always welcome add to anything I post Styx. Great pic, you've got to love a good lightning storm. Last week's storms were not overly severe but they were quite lightning active (so I suspect that photographer wouldn't needed to have their camera on timelapse for too long). A couple of days of decent moisture blown into that trough, and it delivered (didn't get anything at my house though *sobs*, but that's just how the cookie crumbled). Moisture should start increasing across the east coast over the next few weeks, with the ocean warming and winds tending onshore more often. The troughs/fronts should be able to put this increased moisture to better use. Alice Springs has had its longest dry spell on record, breaking the previous record of 147 consecutive days (See: http://www.weatherchannel.com.au/main-menu/News/Breaking-News/Parched-Alice-Springs-endures-longest-dry-spell-on.aspx). The dry spell continues. Alice Springs also equalled its September record high today reaching 38.8ºC (also recorded on Sep 22nd 2003). We are experiencing very dry weather too, with just 0.8mm here this month (at present, the 3rd driest Sep on record). Although the very dry conditions are localised, as last week's storms created some uneven rainfall distribution over a small area, with a decent number of locations within an hour of here receiving 15 to 50mm.

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Sep 13th - 15.7ºC/27.9ºC* - 0.6mm Sep 14th - 10.1ºC/20.0ºC - Nil Sep 15th - 9.0ºC/22.2ºC - Nil Sep 16th - 12.4ºC/22.0ºC - Nil Sep 17th - 14.0ºC/22.3ºC - Nil Sep 18th - 14.8ºC/21.6ºC - Nil Sep 19th - 13.8ºC/24.1ºC - Nil *Local max temp observation missing, used Coffs Harbour instead. Past week: Overall a mild to warm week. A high-based t'storm quickly passed through during the evening of the 13th bringing an end to a 31 day dry spell. Fairly widespread storms developed across central and northern NSW on the 17th and 18th with moist winds feeding a trough, and over 13,000 lightning strikes were recorded in northern NSW. However, we had horrible luck and were one of the very few locations that managed to miss out on a storm AND any recordable rain, lol (there was some anvil rain but not enough to register in the gauge). The trough moved off the coast during the early morning of the 19th, with drier air moving in behind it. Storms on the 17th (Newcastle 512km composite - 10am to 10pm): http://www.theweathe...0/2012-09-17-12 Storms on the 18th (Newcastle 512km composite - 10am to 11pm): http://www.theweathe...0/2012-09-18-14 The next five days (Sep 20th to Sep 24th): Today is a warm and sunny day. A trough will approach here tomorrow, bringing a mild change later as it moves through. There is the chance of a few isolated showers or storms developing about the region tomorrow, but the lack of moisture will be a problem. Saturday and Sunday should both be dry days. Another trough will move through early Monday morning with S/SE'ly winds behind it. The trough is expected to stall to the north near the NSW/QLD border for the afternoon/evening. There could be a little light rain that afternoon, and at this stage there is also the slight chance of a storm. A ridge of high pressure is expected to move in that night. I'm heading down on the 26th to the Southern Highlands (between Sydney and Canberra) for a wedding, and won't be back until late on the 29th. That is why this outlook period is five days instead of the usual seven days, hopefully I'll remember to post the usual summary / seven-day weather outlook on the 25th before I leave.

As of September 11, Alice Springs was on it's 140th consecutive day with no rain. It is looking extremely likely that the existing record of 147 days in 2002 will be broken. (http://www.news.com....9-1226471993840)

The dry spell has come to an end, with a little t'storm and a shower this evening bringing 0.6mm (it was fast-moving and also pretty much virga due to very dry air in the lower levels, so very little rain was recorded).

A dry spell longer than 30 days (like the current one) is somewhat unusual, but there have been dry spells far longer. Since rainfall records began in 1939 here, the longest dry spell is 60 days (July 12th 1991 to September 9th 1991), and back last decade we had a 57 day dry spell between June 20th 2002 and August 15th 2002. Most of the long dry spells here occur in July, August and/or September, when that subtropical ridge is around this latitude and in some years can get quite stubborn.

Good to see Tasmania now has the Graphical Severe Storm Warning maps as well. We've had them in NSW since about 2006. I guess with that new shiny doppler near Hobart they can get a proper view of rain/storms occurring over the state. Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Sep 6th - 16.2ºC/26.0ºC - Nil Sep 7th - 18.0ºC/28.0ºC - Nil Sep 8th - 12.5ºC/24.0ºC - Nil Sep 9th - 12.0ºC/22.5ºC - Nil Sep 10th - 13.6ºC/23.3ºC - Nil Sep 11th - 14.0ºC/22.2ºC - Nil Sep 12th - 13.9ºC/23.3ºC - Nil Past week: Once again, another fine, dry and sunny week. A warm week though, with temperatures firmly into the 20s and peaking at 28ºC on the 7th. Sep 12th was our 31st consecutive day of no rain. Upcoming week (Sep 13th to Sep 19th): A cold front will move through this evening. There is the possibility of a shower or a weak, decaying thunderstorm overnight near the upper trough lagging behind the cold front. The vast majority of any rain or storms will occur at sea or along the central coast of NSW though. A high will quickly scoot in behind the front and clear the skies, and move into the Tasman Sea on Sunday. A low pressure trough is expected to form over the state during Sunday. The trough will hang about the eastern parts of the state through Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Moist air from the southern Coral Sea will feed the trough (*om nom nom nom moisture*). Some rain is expected to fall, and isolated storms are possible (though most likely in the form of thundery rain, rather than your "traditional" Sunday Roast thunderstorm).

It's been four weeks (28 days) since we last received rain here. Dry N/NW'ly winds from the interior and also high pressure systems sitting over the state have left little moisture in the atmosphere, so even when a trough or front has moved through over this dry spell, there's been insufficient moisture (particularly in the lower levels) for any rain or storms. Even when the winds have tended onshore (like at present), the SSTs are still rather cool at this time of year too, so no help there. There is the odd bit of localised light rain being forecast later this week about the north coast, but really in all likelihood, I expect the dry weather to continue for another seven, maybe eight days. The storm season looks like getting off to a late start (similar to the drought year of 2007, when it didn't get underway until mid October!!). Despite a late start, the 2007/2008 season turned out pretty good (brought 33 thunderstorms), so perhaps it's not such a bad thing. Been pretty windy down in Hobart / Tasmania in recent days, hope Styx hasn't been blown away!

28ºC max (rounded-off) reported from the local weather station in the 6hrs to 3pm, with other locations creeping into the low 30s. Winds gusting into the 50s and low 60s (km/h) at times this afternoon (generally in the 40s), and relative humidity has dropped down into the teens this afternoon in the region. The smell of bushfire smoke is noticable and there is a smoky haze too. I suspect it is largely coming from a very large bushfire (5,511 hectares) burning out of control in national park on the foothills of the ranges in the upper Macleay Valley to our west (it presents zero threat to private property though). There is a very small (4 hectare) but out of control fire on the outskirts of Kempsey, which the RFS has labelled as being of concern.

It took me a little while to find the link when I first started using Streetview regularly, as I was looking in all the wrong places, lol. ~~~ Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Aug 30th - 16.0ºC/22.0ºC - Nil Aug 31st - 12.6ºC/19.1ºC - Nil Sep 1st - 7.5ºC/18.8ºC - Nil Sep 2nd - 10.0ºC/21.2ºC - Nil Sep 3rd - 12.9ºC/21.1ºC - Nil Sep 4th - 13.5ºC/22.3ºC - Nil Sep 5th - 14.6ºC/21.0ºC - Nil Past week: Another fine, dry, and mostly sunny week. Upcoming week (Sep 6th to Sep 12th): It is expected to remain fine, dry and generally sunny all week. Even though a weak trough is expected to form over the eastern inland during Monday and hang around through Tues and Wed, no rain is expected to fall in the local area at this stage. A Total Fire Ban is in-place for tomorrow in northeastern New South Wales districts with warm temperatures, strong winds and low humidity expected: "The NSW Rural Fire Service has totally banned the lighting of fires for Friday 07 September for the New England, Northern Slopes, Greater Hunter, North Coast and Far North Coast."

August was a very dry month here courtesy of the subtropical ridge. Winter rainfall was above average, but only because of June which had well above average rainfall. Rainfall at South West Rocks during August 2012: Aug 10th - 13.8mm Aug 11th - 2.0mm Aug 12th - 0.2mm - Below average rainfall was recorded during August, with 16.0mm falling. This is 64.4mm below the August average (Aug Avg. 80.4mm) or 19.90% of the average. - There were just 3 rain days during August. (Aug Avg. 8.2 raindays) - The highest daily fall during the month was 13.8mm, which fell on the 10th. - No thunderstorms passed over South West Rocks during August. - Jan to Aug rainfall total is 1179.2mm, which is 75.8mm above average (Jan-Aug Avg. 1103.4mm). Summary of August 2012 temperatures (LTA = Long-term Average): Aug 2012 Avg. Max: 20.6ºC (LTA: 19.8ºC) Aug 2012 Avg. Min: 12.1ºC (LTA: 11.7ºC) Highest max: 24.2ºC (Aug 24th) Lowest max: 16.5ºC (Aug 11th) Highest min: 16.3ºC (Aug 16th & 24th) Lowest min: 6.5ºC (Aug 11th) ~~~ Summary of Winter 2012 Rainfall and Temperatures: June rainfall: 310.0mm (Jun Avg. 141.2mm) July rainfall: 58.6mm (Jul Avg. 78.8mm) August rainfall: 16.0mm (Aug Avg. 80.4mm) Total rainfall for Winter 2012: 384.6mm (Winter Avg. 300.4mm) Thunderstorms: 3 storms passed over during winter (1 x June 10th, 1 x June 11th, & 1 x July 26th) June 2012 Max Avg: 19.2ºC (LTA: 19.2ºC) June 2012 Min Avg: 12.0ºC (LTA: 12.1ºC) July 2012 Max Avg: 18.8ºC (LTA: 18.7ºC) July 2012 Min Avg: 11.5ºC (LTA: 11.2ºC) August 2012 Max Avg: 20.6ºC (LTA: 19.8ºC) August 2012 Min Avg: 12.1ºC (LTA: 11.7ºC) Highest max: 24.2ºC (August 24th) Lowest max: 15.6ºC (June 11th) Highest min: 16.3ºC (July 12th, August 16th & August 24th) Lowest min: 6.5ºC (August 11th)

Thanks Styx. Outside of the main coastal centres (Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour and Forster), the local councils have quite low limits on building heights. For most councils, the limit is 3 to 5 stories high. For my local council, it is 4 stories for South West Rocks and 3 stories everywhere else (including the main town of Kempsey). Most people are not keen on their place looking like a mini Gold Coast. Port Macquarie has some 8 to 9 storey apartments near the CBD, but most of them are not right on the foreshore. (I think they kind of complement the existing landscape? http://maps.google.c...110.07,,0,-4.81)A decent swathe of the coastline in the region is National Park or Nature Reserve. For example, along the coastline between here and Port Macquarie (around 60-65kms), about 80% of it is either National Park or Nature Reserve. Most of the development these days in the region is occurring away from the foreshore (generally 1 to 3kms inland). Hope the move to Australia goes well. I've never been to Melbourne before. They can get some nice storms on occasion in the summer months, and the odd 40ºC+ day for good measure. I've heard it pronounced a few ways: 'Mel-bin', 'Mel-burn' or 'Mel-born'. I say 'Mel-burn', lol. I wonder how the locals in Melbourne pronounce it? It's a bit like Canberra, you hear 'Can-bra' and 'Can-bear-ra'. I say 'Can-bra', and so do most people I hear.

For those interested: Here's a link to a live cam at South West Rocks (run by the NSW Govt Transport & Maritime). It is not the best quality camera, rather low quality. It's primary purpose is to show conditions at the river mouth, but it does zoom back out to give an overall view. The camera generally faces NW towards the mountain behind (Yarrahapinni, 498m ASL): http://www.maritime....hwestrocks.html Also a link to a (relatively) high quality weather cam at Bonny Hills (with two cams, a W and NE facing one). Images are stored for 9 days and there are also a few old images stored under 'Special Images'. Bonny Hills is around 85kms SSW of here down the coast, near the city of Port Macquarie. Bonny Hills experiences fairly similar weather to here (e.g. if its raining/cloudy/sunny there, it usually is here too): http://webcams.bsch....onny_hills.html (I've also put the links for those cams above in my signature) Other weather cams I use for approaching weather systems and to spy on the storms in those areas when they form: Newcastle (250kms SW of here down the coast): http://webcams.bsch..../newcastle.html Tamworth (200kms W of here, on the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range): http://webcams.bsch....m/tamworth.html

No problem Styx. When did the last thunderstorm occur in Hobart? Yep a cold night across the whole state, with some record September lows recorded (including Canberra and Goulburn). We had a minimum of 7.5ºC here, which was our coldest September night in 17 years. Sydney also had their coldest September night in 17 years. My brother in Goulburn reported snow falling for a short period of time late yesterday afternoon. I think this quick burst of cold weather caught the Bureau by surprise. Spring will find her way back though from Monday.

Alice Springs (Northern Territory) is currently experiencing its longest dry spell in 40 years. August 2012 Rainfall Decile Map: Places around the Grafton area, around 125-150kms to my north, recorded no rain during August. The strongest deficiencies were centred around the 30th parallel, indicative of the subtropical ridge's persistence this month.

Hey there Styx. It does vary between individual El Ninos. A strong El Nino can bring a reduction in the number of storms, however some of the most severe storm outbreaks have occurred during these years. I find neutral conditions or a weak El Nino the best for storms throughout the season (a balance between quality and quantity). La Nina is good for spring storms, but summer activity tends to be almost non-existent. The coastal NE'ly seabreezes can enhance convective activity inland toward the ranges as the 'seabreeze front' slowly moves westward in the afternoon, and it can help when lower level moisture is lacking away from the coast. However in storm setups, I prefer to see NE'ly winds at the surface and near-surface over a wide area blowing into an approaching trough (I suppose more of a NE'ly 'feed' rather than a comparitively shallow NE'ly seabreeze). Hopefully Brisbane gets a little drop of rain Bob. Some storms have developed over the Darling Downs, and they do have the potential to continue moving ESE towards Brisbane this evening. ~~~ Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Aug 23rd - 14.8ºC/21.9ºC - Nil Aug 24th - 16.3ºC/24.2ºC - Nil Aug 25th - 13.5ºC/23.0ºC - Nil Aug 26th - 14.0ºC/20.2ºC - Nil Aug 27th - 10.9ºC/20.6ºC - Nil Aug 28th - 12.3ºC/21.8ºC - Nil Aug 29th - 12.3ºC/20.8ºC - Nil Past week: Mild to warm week overall. It was another dry week. Most of the storms died before reaching the coast on the 23rd/24th (it wasn't well-timed for coastal parts with the trough moving through in the early hours of the 24th). An upper level trough on the 27th, brought localised morning thunderstorms to the north near the state border. Otherwise, an area of high pressure was the dominant synoptic feature. Nice days though still a smoky haze hanging around (photo taken from near the lighthouse on the 23rd): The upcoming week (Aug 30th to Sep 5th): A fair amount of high cloud about today courtesy of a trough over the region. The high cloud killed any storm potential here though (still hope for places further north along the coast, where there was/is far less high cloud). An area of high pressure is expected to bring fine and dry conditions all week. Mild temperatures expected at first, though it should warm up as the week progresses. At this stage on the extended outlook, there's no real sign of the subtropical ridge breaking down in the next fortnight. Consistent mild to warm, fine, and generally sunny days are nice but it's starting to get a bit boring. Might start going a bit "cray-cray" soon, lol. The month of September: The first month of Spring brings mild to occasionally warm days. The nights are usually cool to mild. Maximum temps average 21.8ºC, and minimum temps average 13.4ºC. For September, the record high max is 35.6ºC (27/09/1965) and the record low min is 4.4ºC (05/09/1971). The odd wintry day or cold night can still occur, though usually earlier in the month. On average, September is the driest month of the year here by a fair margin. The average rainfall for September is 56.6mm. Dry spells can occur and bring a very dry month. Heavy rain events are not common, or if heavy rain occurs it is rarely prolonged. You would normally expect a couple of thunderstorms to pass over during the month. Most storms in September, are probably best described as being of the 'garden variety', e.g. they will contain some rumbles, moderate rain, and a bit of a breeze. The main inhibitor to storm activity in September is the subtropical ridge and lack of reliable moisture.

Subtropical ridge has been dominating us, with just 3 rain days in the past month. In the northeastern corner of the state, some places have not received rain all month, and Brisbane in southeast Queensland has not received any rain since July 20th. The 'Storm Season' starts on September 1st. So here's a summary of the storm season in the local region: The storm season runs from September to March. There is a tendency for spring storm activity to be better than summer storm activity (particularly in the past few years). The October to December period is usually the most stormy period. The past couple of summers have also been dominated by La Nina, which has produced very few storms during summer, though spring storms have remained good. Severe storms can occur in any of these months, though there's a tendency for them to occur in that Oct to Dec period. Very severe storms in the local area have been absent in past couple of years, and that could probably be attributed to La Nina. We are one of the stormiest areas outside of the tropics. Annual average thunderdays map for Australia (have marked my town's location as small red dot, it's between Sydney and Brisbane, near Coffs Harbour): Locally, the storm season typically follows this pattern: September - Generally an average month for storms. Severe storms can still occur, though you'd have to unlucky (or lucky, depending on your POV) to find yourself in the path of one. Moisture is often lacking, and this can ruin potential storm days (at this early stage, it appears this Sept could have moisture issues). The subtropical ridge can also be a problem bringing stable conditions, but it usually breaks down before the end of the month. October - Usually a good month for storms. Some years, moisture can be a problem in the earlier half of the month. Potential for a severe storm is quite present in Oct. In Oct 1994, I was in a very severe storm at Kempsey (30kms away from here) that produced up to 9 centimetre hail (hail size confirmed by the Bureau). I was only young but it was a frightening experience. November - The most reliable month for storms locally and probably the month where the threat of a severe storm is at its highest. Usually some of the best storms will occur during Nov, because everything tends to align: warm days, decent humidity, though still get the intrusion of cool sometimes cold mid/upper temps, and wind shear is still good. December - Thunderstorms in December tend less frequent than November, but they have the potential to be just as severe. Warming upper level temps during the month tend to see a bit of a reduction in stormy days compared to November, and cold fronts become quite infrequent (which means less visits of cool mid/upper air and a reduction in the amount of potential 'triggers'). In Dec 1991, a very severe storm at nearby Kempsey produced up to 14 centimetre hail (confirmed by the Bureau). Footage from that particular storm (note: 14cm stone was recorded at Golf Course, and not in this video): http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOcjPiCn3C8 January - Thunderstorm activity usually decreases in January (focus of storm activity tends to move southwards down to southern NSW and Victoria). Cold fronts stop penetrating too far into the continent. So in January, instability in northern NSW is usually driven by troughs developing over eastern Australia, fed by moist winds from the tropics and the Coral Sea. Weak wind shear tends to dominate though, and as a result, most storms stay on the mountain ranges. Jan storms tend to be "air-mass thunderstorms", and so severe storms are not the threat they were in Oct-Nov-Dec. January storm activity in recent years has been particularly subdued. February - Our warmest and most humid month. Shares a number of characteristics to January. A "renaissance" of storm activity has been known to occur in either Feb (as it did this year), or in March. March - Shares a few similarities with Jan/Feb, though wind shear tends to improve and cold fronts / associated troughs can provide a good trigger/forcing. Upper level temps also cool down. A "renaissance" of storm activity can occur, but it rarely rivals Spring / early Summer activity.

Definitely would have not liked to be in Hobart in 1956. That's amazing no 20ºC until early November! 20ºC days are quite common through all winter months here (there's never been a month where we haven't reached 20ºC since temp records began here in 1957), so it isn't a milestone temp here. First 25ºC after July 1st here - 2000: August 28th 2001: September 9th 2002: August 12th 2003: September 6th 2004: July 5th 2005: September 29th 2006: October 5th 2007: August 12th 2008: September 20th 2009: August 23rd 2010: September 2nd 2011: September 14th Since 1957 - Earliest 25ºC: July 5th 2004 Latest 25ºC: October 26th 1969 First 30ºC after July 1st here - 2000: December 24th 2001: December 3rd 2002: September 28th 2003: September 22nd 2004: November 13th 2005: October 6th 2006: November 29th 2007: October 2nd 2008: November 22nd 2009: August 24th 2010: January 9th (2011) 2011: September 18th Since 1957 - Earliest 30ºC: August 24th 2009 Latest 30ºC: Not reached between 01/07/1985 and 30/06/1986. If you exclude that financial year, then the latest 30ºC reached was on January 20th 1999.

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Aug 16th - 16.3ºC/24.0ºC - Nil Aug 17th - 12.5ºC/22.0ºC - Nil Aug 18th - 11.0ºC/20.7ºC - Nil Aug 19th - 11.2ºC/20.3ºC - Nil Aug 20th - 11.7ºC/20.7ºC - Nil Aug 21st - 13.1ºC/20.8ºC - Nil Aug 22nd - 13.5ºC/22.2ºC - Nil Past week: A dry, balmy, and sunny week. A couple of cool nights though. The odd bit of wipsy high cloud about late in the week, but the days were still quite sunny. On the 22nd, an upper level trough passing through the region triggered a couple of weak storms up in the hills to the south, but it remained dry and sunny here along the coast. The past two days have been quite hazy, due to smoke from bushfires in the local area. The upcoming week (Aug 23rd to Aug 29th): It was balmy and sunny today, though quite hazy once again. Nine bushfires are currently burning out of control in the local area, ranging in size from 100 hectares to 800 hectares. Lightning active storms have formed ahead of a cold front in a line from Sydney NSW to Tambo QLD, about 1000kms long. The first widespread storm event since the winter solstice, and timely too, with the 'storm season' starting next week. There is the chance of a shower or thunderstorm here tonight. A cold front should move through tomorrow morning, leaving clear skies and dry air in its wake. The front is only expected to bring a small drop in temperature though. An area of high pressure will quickly move in from the west, with dry weather expected for the remainder of the week, and max temps remaining fairly nice (similar temps to this week). Nights should be cool to mild.

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Aug 9th - 11.1ºC/20.0ºC - Nil Aug 10th - 8.3ºC/17.0ºC - 13.8mm Aug 11th - 6.5ºC/16.5ºC - 2.0mm Aug 12th - 10.0ºC/17.0ºC - 0.2mm Aug 13th - 10.5ºC/19.0ºC - Nil Aug 14th - 10.5ºC/21.5ºC - Nil Aug 15th - 13.4ºC/22.0ºC - Nil Past week: It was a mixed bag. Mild and cloudy, then became cold and very windy, and finished off mild to warm and sunny. Winds got up to around 90km/h during the afternoon/evening of the 10th. We lost power for around 3½ hours during what could be described as a 'winter storm'. We do not often get wild wintry weather this far north, though its a common occurrance down around Melbourne and Hobart. At best, this kind of weather in winter usually gets up to around Sydney/Newcastle, and then veers out into the Tasman Sea bound for New Zealand. The minimum of 6.5ºC was our coldest night of the year, and also the coldest night since July 2007. Snow on the Barrington Tops (1300-1500m ASL), toward the south of the local district on top of the Great Dividing Range (courtesy of NBN News website): The upcoming week (Aug 16th to Aug 22nd): It should be a dry and generally sunny week here. Today was a warm, sunny day (preliminary and rounded-off figure from the 6hr to 3pm summary says we got to 24 degrees). Tomorrow should be a touch cooler, but still mild to warm. A cold front is expected to move through from the west tomorrow evening but no precipitation is expected here on the leeward side of the range. Snow is expected to fall along the ranges on tomorrow, though the latest forecast has backed off on the prospect of snow on the northern ranges. The cooler airmass behind the front should bring more seasonable temperatures though over the weekend, back down to around 19 degrees. A high will wander in from the west and keep skies clear after the cold front's passage. It will warm up gradually after the weekend, with temps potentially popping up into the mid 20s again by next Wednesday. A weak trough could possibly develop over eastern Australia on Wednesday, but it should remain dry.

A Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds (>90km/h) is current for the local region. There was a wind gust of 87km/h at nearby Kempsey a few hours ago. Short video of wind ripping of part of a roof in Sydney: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NMwAqC2ROc Snow also fell at lower elevations along the NSW ranges outside of the Snowy Mountains, mainly along the Central Tablelands. Including Oberon: http://www.blackheat...8-12-linski.jpg Blackheath: http://www.blackheat...snow9-8-12b.jpg A short video of snow falling in Blackheath: Last night was our coldest night of the year here, with a minimum of 8.3ºC.

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Aug 2nd - 9.5ºC/18.9ºC - Nil Aug 3rd - 11.0ºC/20.0ºC - Nil Aug 4th - 12.7ºC/21.6ºC - Nil Aug 5th - 13.3ºC/22.5ºC - Nil Aug 6th - 14.8ºC/22.2ºC - Nil Aug 7th - 8.9ºC/18.0ºC - Nil Aug 8th - 11.6ºC/20.3ºC - Nil Past week: It was sunny and dry all week, thanks to a persistent area of high pressure. Some warm winter days this week, with 22.5ºC on the 5th being our warmest day since May 24th. A couple of cold nights though, including our coldest night of the year so far (8.9ºC). The upcoming week (Aug 9th to Aug 15th): Today is a cloudy but mild day, with mid to high cloud associated with a frontal cloudband. A cold front should move through shortly, with the chance of a shower this evening. Snow is expected to fall down to 600m on southern ranges of New South Wales this evening and possibly down to 800m on the central ranges. A low over the southern Tasman Sea and a high pressure system near Adelaide will cause a tight pressure gradient along the NSW coast over the next couple of days, with damaging surf and some strong winds expected. Cooler temps are expected over the next few days. The S/SE'ly airstream will mean a shower or two is possible from tomorrow night until Tuesday (at this stage, most of the showers look like remaining south of here). Fine weather is expected on Wednesday and warm temps could make a return as winds turn N/NW'ly.

Summary here for the past week (Date/Min/Max/24hrRainfall): Jul 26th - 12.0ºC/19.5ºC - 3.4mm Jul 27th - 12.8ºC/20.3ºC - Nil Jul 28th - 11.3ºC/18.5ºC - Nil Jul 29th - 10.8ºC/19.6ºC - Nil Jul 30th - 10.3ºC/17.8ºC - Nil Jul 31st - 9.4ºC/18.0ºC - Nil Aug 1st - 9.8ºC/18.5ºC - Nil Past week: It was a cool to mild week here, with some cold nights later in the week. A thunderstorm passed over during the late afternoon on the 26th. A few storms developed near the local area again on the 27th, but remained to the north of here. The rest of the week was fairly sunny, most days looked pretty much like this (taken from Little Bay at South West Rocks on July 31st): The upcoming week (Aug 2nd to Aug 8th): Today has been a sunny and mild day, after a cold morning (very dry air today, with relative humidity falling to 20-30% across northern parts of the region this afternoon). An upper level trough will generate some patchy high cloud here tomorrow, but the airmass will be dry so no rainfall is expected at all. A high pressure system will see dry and sunny conditions here for the rest of the week. Balmy days are expected this week, though there should be some cool to cold nights. Early indications are that max temps could rise into the mid 20s by this time next week. ~~~~~~ Last night on the Northern Tablelands, there was a localised area of snow that settled on the higher parts of the range around Guyra (on the ranges inland of here, about 140-150kms away, as the crow flies). A resident near Guyra took a photo of the snow this morning: http://users.tpg.com.au/limnodyn/. The Northern Daily Leader provides a fairly concise summary (Source: http://www.northernd...highway/?cs=157): Cold last night across much of the New South Wales, with a couple of locations in the state's Central West experiencing their coldest August night in 12 years (http://www.smh.com.a...0802-23guy.html). Our exposed coastal location meant we were pretty much the "warmest" location in the state last night with a minimum of 9.5ºC. For the first time here this winter, we've had three nights in a row of sub 10ºC minimums.

Perth has recorded its driest July on record by some margin, just 34.6mm fell during the month (the July average is 169.6mm). The previous driest July on record was back in 1876 when 61.5mm was recorded. The month was also quite cold there too. Perth has a mediterranean climate, normally receiving the vast majority of its rainfall during the wintry months.