Jackfrost
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Posts posted by Jackfrost
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Really remarkable difference between the forecast for Caerphilly town, @Jayfromcardiff, and the forecast for my area, five miles up the road and still at a pretty modest elevation.
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25 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:
But in the written part areas covered
Wales
Blaenau Gwent
Bridgend
Caerphilly
Carmarthenshire
Ceredigion
Conwy
Denbighshire
Gwynedd
Merthyr Tydfil
Monmouthshire
Neath Port Talbot
Powys
Rhondda Cynon Taf
Torfaen
Wrexham
Just to clear this up, the written part of the warning information includes all parts of counties which are included, even if just a tiny part of that county is part of the warning zone itself. For example, in Caerphilly county, only the around Rhymney could be a part of a warning zone but not the rest of the county. Even so, in the written part of the warning, Caerphilly county as a whole will be included. If it's confusing for us, imagine how it must be for those in Powys: it stretches all the way from near Swansea right up to near Wrexham. All it would take for confusion to reign would be for just the area near Swansea to be part of a warning zone, yet you could still have people near Wrexham not familiar with how the warnings work expecting snow!
I think the Met Office needs an overhaul of their warning system because at times, especially when there are multiple overlapping warnings concurrently, it can be as clear as mud for casual users of the site.
6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:Looking good Wales !!
Have to confess I've always had a soft spot for the Welsh, they were very very welcoming to Poles after World War 2.( I'm polish heritage).
I used to go a place called Penrhos back in the 70s and 80s , little Poland as we called it.
Anyway, good luck guys hope to see some pics over the coming days...
Thank you for these kind words, they made me smile. For a long time the Welsh have been stereotyped as hostile to outsiders, switching to Cymraeg when an English speaker enters a pub and whatnot, but I don't think that could be further from the truth.
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At some point this weekend, most likely Sunday, I think snow will fall on the coastal plain in Southeast Wales (the further west of the Vale you go, the less likely that becomes). As for tomorrow, rain progressively turning to sleet and snow seems likely from Caerphilly, Taff's Well, VoG, Bridgend etc. northwards, obviously with the earlier the transition and greater depths the further north and the more elevation you have.
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Yes, I also think it's likely to be corrected southwards to take in the Valleys at least.
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A very complex pattern this weekend and into next week but, as things stand, Wales (and South Wales in particular) could be in for a snowy old weekend. The potential is there for more significant snow than we saw on Sunday and the models have shown consistency in this for the last few days, but it goes without saying that the uncertainty is very high and any expectations we have of snow could be snatched away with just one run.
The 18Z is about to begin rolling out. Let's see what it shows.
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8 minutes ago, Hywel said:
Thats rain unfortunately
Actually, it is snow. "Cumul de précipitations neigeuses" = "snowfall accumulation". It's no doubt overdone, but the signal is there for a snowy weekend next week, so much so that the BBC's TV forecast for the week ahead has mentioned it.
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3 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:
Looks like these showers are going to go to far south now, looks like the wind is staring to change direction. I still think we might have a few more surprises this afternoon.
There is a chance they could drift too far south, I agree. But I'm also noticing a re-intensification of precipitation in North Wales associated with the pivoting front, so this isn't quite over yet.
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8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Decent amount of showers swinging towards us, not the best time of the day to arrive though.
I think we'll be fine as the signal is for snow away from the immediate coast, even right down to the coast itself in places. As they're circling the low pressure system, which is now stalling, we just have to watch they don't swing too far south and miss us altogether. The first cluster of showers will probably get no further north than Pontypridd and Caerphilly; the second and bigger cluster, perhaps Merthyr at a push.
Thick fog here and feeling cold in it, although a slow thaw is underway.
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18 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Those showers look heavy but is it marginal for snow now? I'm thinking on low ground.
I imagine they'll fall as snow above 100 m or so. Sorry, I know that gives no certainty for you down in Caerphilly!
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The northernmost part of the front has now stalled just off the North Wales coast; expect the rest of the front currently over the Midlands to do so soon and then slowly pull back south, losing some intensity as it does so. Meanwhile, a cluster of showers are moving roughly eastwards from Pembrokeshire. These may also lose some intensity, but regardless, with quite a bit of precipitation still around today, a further 2-3 cm in places is not out of the question.
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2 minutes ago, Fujita scale said:
Sweet spot will be Bristol/West Midlands
JK
Agreed. It's not common for the Bristol area to see proper snow, so I'm pleased for them. It's currently what my mother would call "picking" to snow, and I'd be happy for it to do this for most of the day.
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My guess is that it'll pivot somewhere between Gloucester and Birmingham, the further south the better for those of us in South Wales.
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8 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:
Unless the showers behind organise into something more substantial then you might catch the odd heavy shower but that looks to be it especially as the second area of precipitation has weakened significantly and looks to be staying over sea
Yes, I think I agree with this.
It's rare and likely won't happen on this occasion, but the Bristol Channel can be our friend in South Wales in a cold spell, acting as a funnel and directing snow into Cardiff and the Valleys. Almost lake-effect. I'm not sure if anyone remembers it but this happened unexpectedly on December 19th, 2009, and left quite a bit of snow.
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Suspect it might be overdoing it somewhat, but:
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7 minutes ago, JamesL said:
Interesting
The met office see the front moving back through Wales later on today
Yes, it'll move back south. It'll be light and patchy by that point, not the active front it is now, but with the dribs and drabs of precipitation behind this main front and then it moving back southwards later, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see patchy snow continuing for much of the day before it all freezes solid tonight.
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That area of precipitation trailing behind the main band is worth keeping an eye on, I think. It's currently west of the Gower and is more potent than the main band, so watch for it swinging northeastwards over Southeast Wales.
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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Does that mean it'll pass quicker?
No, slower. When it entered Pembrokeshire it was a fairly thin N-S front, but as it begins to slide it should keep snow going for longer.
2 minutes ago, Snowguy said:Earlier than expected?
Perhaps a bit, but all the same I'm not expecting it to stall over us; the stall and northern extent will probably be over the Midlands later, before it weakens and moves back south over Wales this evening.
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Starting to snow here, and the front is now taking on a definite NW-SE orientation.
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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Good job it's Sunday and not a weekday. Don't think I'd do it if I had work the next day.
Should get a few hours of snow, hopefully really heavy.
The lengths us snow obsessives go to... Still, I'd much rather be awake at 3:30 and looking for snow, rather than awake at 3:30 and worrying about potential flooding like I was a few days ago!
Something else I don't think has been mentioned is how low the temperatures will be on Sunday night into Monday. -7° in Merthyr, for example.
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10 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Bit worrying that others are seeing rain. I expect it was always marginal on the coast though. It's still -0.6 here.
Hah, come on, you can do this. We all believe in you.
And about your dream: I'm not sure it's going to stall over us, but it's no longer the thin band it was when it reached Pembrokeshire and it's now beginning, very slowly, to swing northeastwards and kind of slide as it does so, which should keep the snow going for longer.
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2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Bit worrying that others are seeing rain. I expect it was always marginal on the coast though. It's still -0.6 here.
Don't worry, it's all but certain to be snow in the Valleys. Should be here in the next half an hour.
-1.5° here.
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Surprised by the intensity this front is maintaining, even as it interacts with the cold air stationary over us tonight. I'm also surprised that it extends as far north as it does, past the northern tip of Ynys Môn.
Looks like quite a few places will be seeing problems come morning! Genuinely disappointed for those only seeing rain from this, though.
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1 minute ago, freeze for all said:
Harmonie 6z has the low pivoting further east around Central England
Yes, I think that's the Met Office's current thinking too, hence the maximum snow depths being in that area.
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1 minute ago, bradymk said:
Good forecast Jack
If it’s further south, hopefully area 1 could see a light covering too. North Pembrokeshire I think will do ok too.
Thank you.
I have to admit I'm not as familiar with the geography and local climates in that part of Wales as I am with those in the southeast, but this upcoming event is less marginal than most so I really wouldn't be too surprised if the only places that don't see falling snow at a minimum are those on the immediate coast in the southwest.
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted · Edited by Jackfrost
I think you'll at least see some falling, but in terms of accumulations it's so dependent on altitude that I'm not even certain I'll see settling.
Honestly, if the UK and Ireland kept their oceanic climate but were a thousand miles further north and had generally greater elevation, our winters would be almost as snowy as Hokkaido and Montreal and without the worries over marginality.