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Relativistic

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    Worst April Through June Since?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Wasn't last year the 2nd warmest ever (UK) and last decade the warmest decade ever (globally and UK)? 2010 was also the joint warmest year globally on record. How does that fit into a cooling climate?

    I'm not looking for an argument, I was just highlighting the fact that warming hasn't taken place (in the CET zone at least), for about 20 years, just a series of very warm years followed one after another with the odd exception (2010). Although I didn't mention global temperatures, 2011 globally was the 11th warmest on record, which I wouldn't describe as exceptional, although others may differ in opinion.

    Btw, I didn't mention a cooling climate, sorry if my post came across in that way.

    Worst April Through June Since?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 22nov10blast

    That last post rather suggests anti-warming confirmation bias. For instance Philip Eden has his own version of the CET series (which he believes to be a more homogeneous continuation of Gordon Manley's original scheme in 1974) and while some monthly values differ by a few tenths of a degree, they show a similar amount of overall warming. There are many near-homogeneous individual records going back to the 1800s, such as the ones at Durham University Observatory and Oxford, which show a similar amount of warming to both versions of the CET series.

    Summers have definitely got cooler during 2007-2011 relative to 1989-2006, and this June is looking highly probable to be the coldest since 1991, but the trend in the mean annual temperature remains upward.

    To be honest, I think it's been warm in the last 20 years, but warming hasn't really happened. If you look at the graph and there really hasn't been any warming for about a couple of decades, just warm years on a level trend.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif

    Winter Forecast! - He's At It Again...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I thought that globally 2011 was one of the hottest years and as far as our weather in the UK is concerned we are entirely at the mercy of the jet streams, so when we had a fairly indifferent summer a couple of years ago, there were record breaking high temperatures in Russia.

    I think 2011 was the 11th warmest year globally.

    When we and much of America experienced the mild weather last winter, parts of Canada and Alaska were experiencing some of their heaviest snowfalls ever. When the jet stream does one thing somewhere, the opposite nearly always occurs somewhere else!

    Worst April Through June Since?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have a very dark soul! It's probably the same reason I listen to Napalm Death at high volume.

    But, jesting apart ( although I do listen to Napalm Death at high volume ) I find excessive rainfall just as exciting a huge snowfall, it's postively addictive seeing the total creep, or jump, higher and higher and knowing there's even more to come.

    I'm not saying I'd want it to rain 24 hours a day every day ( although a month of it would be an experience! ) as it would make going out on my bike an arduous experience but even in the most unsettled spells this country experiences there are days with 7 or 8 hours of dry weather and that's more than enough for me.

    I also like the boundaries of climate to be pushed at the cold and wet end of the scale at all times of year- it's why I live at almost 1100', because a cold and wet day here is a REALLY cold and wet day.

    A small change in climate towards colder and wetter would soon make my local climate similar to that at about 1800' without me having to move house. I love the weather and climate of the high moors and if, for whatever reason, I can't move to it I'll have it move down to me.

    The holy grail for me, in summer, would be a July or August with the greatest negative temperature anomaly on the CET record coupled with the highest monthly rainfall on record.

    I'm also one for really heavy rainfalls, I find them really exciting. I don't see why people get so depressed by it, yes, I agree, you can't do much, but living in this country I have just learn't to get use to it, and actually enjoy it.

    I would also love to live through he biggest negative temperature anomaly for a Summer month, it would just be amazing to experience and to has memories of how strange that month was.

    May CET -- Your Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 22nov10blast

    Yes, now that you mention it, almost a periodic return, 117 years followed by 118 years. Another similarity, all three had cold winter months trending early winter, Jan 1776 was -1.6, Dec 1892 was 1.8 and of course Dec 2010 was -0.7.

    These analogues have not kept pace since although divergence has been a lot less than complete (no very mild Novembers in the first two cases) but winters of 1777 and 1894 had some moderately cold months and some kind of out of phase trend in spring that involved a cold April in 1777 and a cold May in 1894. Seems like some kind of QBO-length signal was in phase -- as the QBO tends to be variable in the range of 2 to 2.5 years, this is not always very useful for analogue forecasting for too long anyway, but FWIW the summers of 1777 and 1894 were both in the "near average" category and then winters that followed were cold, 1895 exceptionally so.

    I have been working on a summer forecast to update the posted spring forecast (seasonal thread). It does not look very far from average in general. Will be posting that some time tonight or Friday morning.

    That is very interesting, certainly not something I picked up on. Let's see if Summer and Winter pan out similarly.

    Just to add, looking back another 117 years we don't see this Spring warmth. It's a shame we don't have records going back a few years further to see if the Spring warmth was a theme in years just prior to 1659.

    However, as you mentioned, looking a year on from each of those years and we see that April 1777 also came in at 7.2C on the CET, as did this year, and May 1894 came in at 9.2C, which is similar to the current CET, although this years will probably finish higher.

    May CET -- Your Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    22nov10blast asked about coldest 16 April to 15 May. The filter shows these results:

    1. 6.5 (1782)

    2. 6.6 (1879)

    3. 7.0 (1877)

    and since 1980, 7.8 in 1991.

    The warmest was 12.7 (1893), second place 12.5 (1776) and third to last year (2011) at 12.4

    Thanks. It's interesting to see that the two warmest were actually in less recent times.

    Coldest May For 100 Years Is On It's Way!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    If we go back to the crux of this thread

    *Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%

    then surely CET temps are not a bad indication of temps in that area, and certainly better than those in Scotland and Southern Ireland.

    At this stage the general theme of a cool/cold May were not that far off, the OTT claims for the coldest May in 100 years, look well OTT.

    Hi, I don't post on here much but I just want to clear up something. I think a few people are a bit mislead by the forecast. The Express did the usual and overhyped it and I think a few people were caught up in that. The forecast states an 80% chance for the coldest in 100 years and a 90% chance for this May coming in in the top 5 coldest in 100 years. I don't think anyone should be dismissing the forecast just yet, as it could come in the top 5 coldest quite easily if things remain cool. (I'm not specifying you Jackone, it's just this quote has the forecast in it).

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 22nov10blast

    Go to page 1 of the thread and click on the ecm (berlin) link provided by chio. zonal wind forecasts are in the bottom box

    Okay, thanks. About the EP Flux, at 10hPa it is and has been in a poleward direction, yet the warming at 10hPa hasn't really propagated downwards. Am I wrong in saying that this is what should happen or is there a reason for this?

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 22nov10blast

    Is this also similar to January 1987?

    86.145.8.9.364.10.1.7.png

    Forgive me if I've done this wrong, I'm still getting use to some of these charts.

    Edit: Just realised that this is displaced over Greenland as well.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 22nov10blast

    I have read through some recent pages to get a bit more of an idea on the subject and I have made out the following:

    1. Rossby waves can travel to the vortex and either penetrate it underneath from the troposphere or over the top of the stratospheric vortex, introducing warmth and causing disruption.

    2. Rossby waves can be seen on 500hPa SLP charts as troughs.

    3. High snowcover in the NH allows for the suns radiation to be reflected back up into the strat, introducing warmth.

    4. Mountain torques are events where the air pressures either side of a mountain range are different, what this means though, I do not know.

    The only question I have is; how are MT's and Rossby waves linked?

    Any answers would be much appreciated.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi 22novblast10 and welcome to the forum.

    You are right in much of your assertions. All the information that you ask is already in much of the thread and I would advise read through and look at some of the linked papers.

    If you have any further questions then please ask but there is no guarantee that we may know the answer!

    Also please could you put your location in your profile before JH notices!!

    c

    Todays update is short due to Xmas do last night - no changes other than better forecast propagation of warming down to 10 hPa today.

    Thank you! I will read through the thread and have a look. Sorry about the location thing, I've set it now.

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