[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

ditto for frosty A

Am I the only one having trouble?

I cant view them either john

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Just now, Edlav said:

What time does the ECM start running guys?

Now . 6am - 7am

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

8 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Try having a look at the ensembles for your own location: simple as a click on the map provided.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

 

Thanks for that , i did not realise you could click the map i was only seeing London ensembles , you learn something new everyday

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

11 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Clear as mud. But at least the average stays hovering around the -5 mark.

What location is the set of ensembles for please ,altitude  353 metres ??  

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

The question is what do the other 26 members show . 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure that would suit Sidney but us in the North West would like to see a potent NWly arrive during early January..fingers crossed.

Edited your post 

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

On 05/10/2016 at 11:23, summer blizzard said:

Hello SB , could you post the update for the SAI ,if possible. Cheers Darren

[Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction]

37 minutes ago, karyo said:

Ian F said it was going for above average temperatures (albeit slightly) so that's in the mild category. Still better than last winter of course.

Could you post the link to where Ian has said it is going for above average temps please . I can not find anything on netweather or twitter. Cheers Darren

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

If you add Nov and Mar then yes but for the core winter period it was average and dry. The further southeast you went the chillier it was. The continent was properly frozen so it was unfortunate that we didn't manage to get a good continental feed.

March had some really nice snowfalls and it was the best month for wintriness.

I do not disagree with you. I was just stating there was some good snow events in that winter ,as most people  on here look for snow from Nov to Mar i looked at those months as well . My mistake i should of made this clearer .

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

44 minutes ago, karyo said:

Winter 2005/6 was dry and near average.

2004/5 was mild

2005/6 was a mixed winter with some good snow events . All quotes taken from the met office website below 

Nov 2005

The first half of the month was unsettled and warm, while the second half was cold and increasingly wintry with some significant snow, fog and frost. Overall, it was a very sunny month, with sunshine figures exceptionally above average.

Dec 2005

Unsettled and mild at first. Briefly colder mid-month with some wintry showers in the east. Much colder late in the month with some substantial snowfall in eastern England 27th to 30th.

Jan 2006

Generally it was a dry month across England and Wales but there was a period of wet and windy weather for Wales and western counties between the 9th and 16th.

Feb 2006

Temperatures close to average, but the coldest February since 1996.

March 2006

It was a cold month with spells of wintry weather and below-average temperatures. However, this was partially offset by warmer conditions during the final week of the month as winds turned south-westerly.

[SNOW & ICE coverage in the Northern Hemisphere 2016/17]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

2016 starting low a little like 2009 which ended up 3rd highest by the end of October :-) What happened next during that winter, well we all know ;-)

If you zoom in on the image this year is near on identical to 2005 , i believe that was a snowy winter .

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is it these that you are looking at Blue

the odd member on the AO tanking to -5 with a main cluster of -2 to -3,NAO in the neg too

No , they are the gfs forecasts .

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

Just now, knocker said:

You are wrong.

Short and blunt , but thank you anyway

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

It's there on the EC32 update but quickly disappears after the 3rd I notice.

Genuine question. I thought weatherbell members only had access to the control run only. please correct me if wrong.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

8 minutes ago, MPG said:

 

Two conflicting posts regarding Cohen.

Why don't you go and read the report for yourself ???. Anyway , I have nothing more to add that already hasn't been said , more of the same it seems for at least the next 10-14 days.

 

[C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)]

5.2c please

[S.Murr Winter Forecast 2014/15]

Despite the winter I am still very grateful to Steve M for attempting a LRF. I have always been of the opinion that providing an accurate LRF for the UK is incredibly difficult. You will find it is difficult to be accurate for a large land mass like the USA let alone a tiny island like the UK.

 

Here in Peterborough the winter has been poor. Only 1 day of lying snow with the greatest depth being 7cm, 3 days of snow falling and my lowest min has been -4C. Compared to last winter an improvement but disappointing overall.

 

What has stood out for me this winter is the sheer lack of eye candy from the models even into F.I. Like Steve says the AO has been positive and whilst at times the PV has split, the split vortices have never been in the right position for the UK.

 

Finally as already mentioned I believe 2009, 2010 winter's we're linked to the sunspot cycle but I also believe the series of volcanic eruptions were another factor. Although a long way away im looking forward to the winters between 2018-2020!

Hmmm 7 cm of snow , not in the Peterborough I live at I am afraid  

[Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat]

snowing in Peterborough

[Who still hasn't had any snow yet?]

me . I am getting p1553d off to be honest now.

[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

Encouraging 12z runs. Here are a couple of reasons to keep champagne on ice until this goes truly into reliable zone.

 

6z ensembles:

 

 

12z ensembles:

 

 

The point from those being that toppler territory and return to milder conditions from a transient northerly remain possible options, even probable ones. Let's hope the ensembles tighten up on the colder side to firm things up. Otherwise it continues to be a perilous path here.

At what day does the scatter begin ??, as you have chopped the dates of them charts lol.  

[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

The NAO may go negative for a short time - however then trending positive again - a cold start to February soon to be replaced by milder conditions

But isn't that forecast based on the GFS output .

[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

no sign? Every single model is going for a displaced azores high west of the uk amplified and building north towards greenland. your talking out your backside mate.

so that will be a MLB your talking about then ??? .and is there really any need to be rude to other members , We are all on here to learn from one another .

[The Seasonal Forecast Thread]

Hi Hotspur61

Cheers its been a pretty frustrating winter thus far and clearly a mix of everyones has come to fruition at times.  AZH has been the winter bug bear.

Loads to still get through and synotically I've had to adjust original Feb outlook as HLB isn't IMO going to be as widespread/obvious but am very hopeful its going to be the most interesting and coldest wintry month.  My Full Moon/Apogee period early Feb is main focus point initally as I also think we'll see some 'solar flare' activity too in the mix around this time.   I'm liking what the models are showing and if this period comes to fruition as I see it, will it be MJO driven or MJO and jetstream reacting to solar activity on the strat and lunar modulation activity?  We'll see as this period has been one of my winter 'targets' well before the MJO could be seen to  suggest such synoptic pattern.

Overall thus far I'm in same boat as many LRF ers..........this winter has not gone where one would think on occassions......good old UK

 

BFTP

I am a bit disappointed to read that you have gone adjusting you LRF, imo once you put it out there at the beginning of winter, that is it no tinkering about .

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

He's talking about the 'current cold spell'.

 

In relation to the 18Z GFS the main positive I can take from it, is that it will be gone when we all wake up. Azures high in charge with the entire PV setting up home over Canada and Greenland. Only one run of course, but the outlook just looks straightforward zonal to me as of tonight.

Thanks for that , appreciated

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

Now we know how the predicted cold period has actually verified, does anyone have the anomolys for the past week and the current MJO phase charts to see if it is indeed the MJO that has been driving the current trop pattern.

Will be interesting to see if the strat does indeed drive the trop in the 5/12 day period

The first part of your post is confusing . The predicted cold period has ACTUALLY verified ??? . Nothing has actually verified yet