[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

13 minutes ago, stodge said:

Colder air crossing a warmer sea raises the possibility of convection and a "lake effect" of snow or rain showers over eastern and south eastern Britain.

The higher atmospheric pressure might mitigate against that so we'd be left with the cloud leading to a less varied diurnal range of temperatures.

We really need an ESE'ly with minimum fetch over water to bring colder, clearer and drier air across southern and eastern Britain - an anticyclonic NE'ly flow will disappoint.

I did wonder, thanks for clarifying

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

6 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

The mood has lightened here somewhat after the 12z output. ECM reminds us cold air can find its way even without a storm force E'ly and a 960MB LP in the Channel.

Many of the other model outputs suggest a period of cold conditions around the Christmas period - not surprisingly, longevity and severity still very much to be resolved.

This morning's 6Z GFS showed how inversion makes nonsense of the 850s and promotes ice days. 

We aren't there on the GFS 12Z OP but still seasonably brisk in the run up to the big day - note the warmth in the Southern North Sea:

 

Given this comment on the warmer temps in the Souther North Sea, can you clarify the significance of this?

cheers