jgbgt
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Posts posted by jgbgt
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With all the detail sometimes the overall picture gets lost.
there is an historic cold plunge into the USA. This will supercharge the Jet stream; this powered up thermal gradient will cause likely the energy off the NE of USA and Greenland; meaning any block may get shunted away.
looks like the flatter pattern at the end is exactly that: the jet stream coming across. I think the best scenario for prolonged cold weather (forgetting snow, it’s just too uncertain at this range) is to have the southerly tracking Jet. Eg Cluster 3.
the pattern shown the otherwise in pacific at points (don’t have charts to hand) have the Omega block shape, driving the cold into the USA. We ideally want that repeated to drive the cold (or allow the cold) to propagate to lower latitudes.
Im not holding out hope but let’s see how things progress today- the trend in not our friend.
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Merry Christmas Everyone; time for my almost annual post.
Let think positive, losing the heights in the Med and seeing some of the anomalies give lower down that way is the start of something we can build on.
I fear a chase may be on again, but that’s why we are here, back to charts and watch what happens.
Merry Christmas!
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4 minutes ago, classylady said:
Hi, I'm just up the road from you! Hopefully we will see a flake or two!
Just East of Hailsham/Herstmonceux still rain heavyish. Not really anything sleety. Think west of rye to battle and East if Eastbourne in the triangle is the final squeeze of the less cold air.
May ah see a couple of wet flakes but even from the BFTE last year we saw only a dusting whereas Eastbourne/Heathfield etc all got good covering.
Weather station is broken so no reports of temps but bring just inland a bit from Vg200 probably similar. Please weather gods just deliver something!
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Battle - grey dull, wet, constant rain, not heavy, just constant big drops, nothing remotely wintry even at a bit of extra height.
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So it has begun, there is now a 'light snow' symbol on the met office website for Sun/Mon at midnight, otherwise cold(ish) and grey. min temp though for this area (nearer the coast) only showing -1 and 5 max, the reality will be any light covering and a clearer sky, much colder into Tuesday.
Though as I type its updated to show colder minimum temps to -2 but hourly temps are still showing higher than I would expect. Temps below 3, continental air, low dew points and the cloud symbol means only one thing, time to make sure those lamp-post/outside lights have bulbs.
Still restraining myself, can we still be burnt? I head says no, my heart says, knowing our luck, we wont see much!
Though today I'm selling my Range Rover which has a set off full winter tyres, therefore if it actually goes before Sunday, its practically guaranteed to snow.
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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
BINGO!
Is that a 6 hour possible Easterly/North easterly at 13 days away.....all predicated on a second system going SE
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Crucially crouching and a crushed crucial ligament for the crucial 12z's. Good practice for the impending South downs ski resort that is about to seen....well here is to hoping; though I expect further movements towards each other but with a slightly better orientation and slightly sharper.
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its been like living under a stone down here in East Sussex, grey skies, grey drizzle, grey fog, grey mist. not see the sun for days, not had any weather. Not looking forward to a double digit cloudy xmas, but at least should be a bit brighter next week.
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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Oh thank goodness, I'm not going completely mad then. Why on earth do they think we have snow cover then?
I assume it is just a theoretical depth based on the precipitation and the algorithm within the model of mm of water to snow. Then assuming that stuck? Here we did have a light covering for a while, until it turned sleety again and washed most away.
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@ManWithbeard - The met office posted this earlier on twitter so as you can see quite a lot of the SE south of London was without a good covering, obviously that doesn't pick up smaller areas with coverings. There was some sporadic small patches around Battle, but only at height, otherwise Battle to Hailsham is clear.
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Just now, ReindeerMarmalade said:
-0.7 and dp -1. Could've done with this when we had precip ? The chickens are silent and it feels colder than the temps suggest.
Agree feels colder. Windchill is taking things down a notch. Mybweather station is on the blink, 2.5, I don’t think so.
The deck boards are super icy but the trusty pan of water isn’t frozen so not significantly below freezing.
Hard frost forming on the damp grass ( no snow left- some settled higher up towards battle but washed away by the rain
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Just now, Ben Lewis said:
True, of course their are acceptions.
Good for her and respect... as long as she drives sensibly on icy roads ;-)
Haha. Always sensible. Our 2 year old now says “Daddy watch out” or “dangerous” lol.
Getting cold here (hailsham countryside) and some surfaces are so slippery. But still just under freezing, any one got some real cold temperatures yet, or is that later. Skies clear. Still a stiff breeze.
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How do you see a posters m location on a mobile?
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2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:
Oh I have and I would.
Yummy mummies are quite different from my mum.
Still working at 61 years old and get a bus to work 5 days a week and worked during my whole childhood.. no yoga pants/ no coffee meetings/ no Pilates/ does have a job and no 4x4 thinking their invincible to icy conditions!
‘Theyve done well in their marriage’ married a well off husband - which means they don’t have to work - which makes them jobless... I don’t quite follow your point?
Anyway.. I feel this has got a bit beyond my original post - “the 4 jobless mummies speeding down our non grit road carelessly in the 4x4”
lol
Has veered/skidded off if you excuse the pun.
Should also point out they could have earned it all in their own right. My wife might be considered one of those, but she is a shareholder Director of a company with an MBA and her company take more in a day than my little thing turns over a year.
You wouldn’t know as I look awful in yoga pants.... small calfs you see.
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Any one seen the gritters? I saw one at midday but I assume a lot may have been washed away.
Will be a busy night for them.
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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
you are right about the tyres but not rear wheel drive, front wheel drive is more controllable in slippery conditions. the most important thing, no matter what you drive, is to drive appropriate to the conditions i.e. select higher gears and no hard braking. also allow much longer distances for braking.
I had a Range Rover sport on the standard tyres (read summer Pirelli scorpions) and had to park in a car park at our old cottage. My wife a merc rwd kompressor coupe, on winter tyres. We went to swap cars over so I could go on driveway in 2013 I think and I could barely get out of sheet ice car park. Even with all land rovers trickery. She managed in the merc to drive around it so easily with proper winter tyres. Again though would be better in a fwd or 4x4.
I got completely stuck in a manual front wheel drive Volvo on a tiny hill with cheap tyres! I had never been stuck before. Or since. It even had a winter mode.
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Just now, Danny* said:
Completely agree - The number of times I've had a 4x4 driver just pull out and cut me off thinking they own the road.
It’s certainly a genaralisation. Honda drivers old, French cars no good or don’t care about safety, Ford ??? Etc. It’s wrong to generalise about driving because of a unconscious bias.
Main thing is with the ice around later and now, drive as if there is an egg under each pedal and as was said increase stopping distances massively. Even winter tyres won’t save you.
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8 minutes ago, c00ps said:
Lots of assumptions going on here. Having just bought a 4x4 for my daily commute to London I loved it this weekend. I for one know that when you hit the ice doesn’t mater if you’ve got the best 4x4 you’re gonna skid when you break on it. Drove for 10 years in Canada. That’ll teach you the quick way lol
Agree! Completely. Some people buy 4x4 as that the largest safest thing they can afford and that makes sense. Especially for some who commute large distances etc
We have a number of 4x4s each do a different job and some are used just on the road, because they are big, fast and comfortable!
P.s we garage a couple so they look like proper Chelsea tractors but so actually go off-road. Learnt my lesson going down a track in a 4wd 911 and grounded out and got a nail in a rear tyre. That was an expensive mistake.
And ended up facing wrong way a few times in a Subaru in Canada. Proper tyres and everything and some ice there is nothing you can do! Only go as fast as you want to hit something I was once told. Like docking a ship.
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To be fair. The 4x4 bit makes the least difference on ice. It’s about Tyres. Low profile summer tyres mean you are going no where. Winter tyres with proper compound will be better on a rwd auto.
No wheels spinning or worst driving here. But in snow and ice people seem to have a brain freeze also. Saw one car attempt a 3 point turn in a slushy junction off a main road high street, it’s even more stupid as there is a roundabout 50yards ahead!
i don’t think people should be judged by the vehicles they drive or the ‘trousers’ they wear to buy coffee. But the coffee they buy. That’s a different matter, Starbucks, yuck!
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Just to add balance- 7.8 in Eastbourne. Heavy rain.
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7 minutes ago, rory o gorman said:
Control backs the OP in both runs , but yes there are wild fluctuations some of which are backing prolonged cold . Taking some perspect almost all 21 members were depicting cold this time yesterday today is less than half . This is a downgrade as much as anyone may want to spin it. The rapid increase in the subtropical jet as a result of cut off heights is a credible solution that has been seen many times before. Just looking at this objectively and without bias.
I count 5 members at 17/18th above the mean which still looks fairly cold to me. Bearing in mind the mean is screwed itself by the other not clustered solutions the probability is still for colder in my eyes.
Yes op and control are higher res, but from low res points both deviate from the mean quite drastically. (Pretty much the definition of an outlier)
jg
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The GEFS and ecm anomalies are in broad agreement at day ten with the HP to the S/SE and troughs mid Atlantic, eastern Europe. Wind from the WSW with temps a little above average. In the ext period the ecm is not quite so bold pushing the HP north but no disagreement with the essentials. None of this is a million miles from the EC32.
Is it not baby steps.... reading these? the Low Pressure ("LP") anomaly is being squeezed northwards and 'draining' into pacific side, the High Pressure ("HP") anomaly over Europe, losing some of its intensity and squeezing the Greenland LP anomaly polewards.
This to me indicates a broad agreement of HP heights trying to transfer north westwards whilst the euro high anomaly diminishing.
The correct sort of progression, if its support for the 'theme' you are after. These are about interpretation, rather than reading the exact detail, that's how I read it anyway...maybe I just see what I want to see, but for me an average can only ever give an indication, anbd any signal for a specific outcome can be lost with an average of a deviation.
JG
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the danger is we waited throughout last winter for the same and it never turned up - hope that don't happen again - and I can't see it happening but you never know - weather is about balance - and we have had some stonking plus temps this year - and a very mild winter last time - so we have to assume that through all probabilities and percentages - I would put money right now on the winter getting very cold and snowy at some point shortly - especially with all the overall signs that we have right now - we have to be patient right now - possibly 2 - 3rd week of December could well have the turn around we seek - for now we watch
I understand the point, but the balance only happens after a very long period, year to year is too short a time frame. Its like roulette, every time the wheel spins the odds reset, or for want of a clearer example, flipping a coin, intuition says if you flip ten times heads you are more likely to flip a tail next time, but its not, this is the Gamblers fallacy (see Wikipedia) its 50:50 each time.
The short answer being we had mild last year, assume the new winter is a reset, then the likelihood of cold winter are not increased by a previous mild winter...
JG
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Soon to be known as the Gap of un-fulfilment?
Howver on the warnings-Its almost a Venn diagram joy for weather lovers, with the intersection being winter weather fans' intersection of joy, or the WWFIJ, as I have just shortened it to.
Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Agreed. As we saw amplification in pacific. The only signal that really matter for Uk is the jet. It will override all.