Krakatoa01
-
Posts
16 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Krakatoa01
-
-
No because global warming is a scientifically proven theory. There's a difference
So then people who are for GW should stick to forecasting as well?
-
No offence but as a bystander looking in you are going round in circles with your argument.
Gray-Wolf and BFTP regularly post statistical proof of they're theories (evidence)
I've yet to see one piece of evidence to back up what your saying.
If this was a meteorogical boxing match it would have been a TKO in the first round!
That's why I'm questioning this instant linkage of our weather to less ice, simple facts are, we don't know. Because something can, it doesn't mean it is.
What we do know is that it has the potential to alter weather patterns. What we also know is that we can have those same weather patterns with entirely different levels of ice. Anyone who disputes that is calling into question data sets which are respected the world over. Whether it be our wet summers or our cold winters, we've had them both for long periods of time in times gone by when there was a great deal more ice than now. Even if you look at global weather patterns, there's really very little to distinguish any difference between the current drought in the USA and the dust-bowl droughts in the early part of the 20th century.
What's really needed is time for more research to be done, more observations taken. Folk who rush to link ice changes with weather because it suits their own perspective really aren't helping either the research or the debate on AGW. There was the same rush made when we had a few hotter summers and mild winters, they too were blamed on AGW and less ice.
Personally, I can't see what's wrong with saying we don't know, clearly some others would rather argue from a more certain angle. When it comes to the actual science, what it tells us is we don't know but here's a few ideas of what may be happening.
-
It's got a feel of 2003 to it this year. The sst's off the coast of America are really influencing the midatlantic ridge and the Azores high and will continue to feed these into the summer. Long term expect quick changes through spring. I.e interchanging northerly and southerly air masses (as is the norm) to be quickly replaced by the Azores high and for the northerly outbreaks to become less and less frequent as we hit the summer. The set up is ripe for a hot (and potentially drought damaging) summer time
-
The ice has been increasing since 2007? No it HASN'T! The average yearly line has continued to fall at a rate of 7% per annum!
Embarrassing claims!
Global cooling is taking place according to russian scientists.
In London, about 2 thousand 800 experts from various countries meet in the conference Planet Under Pressure.
Russian scientists say that the cycles of waxing and waning of ice in the Arctic show that continued global warming "is a myth" and the current climate cycles will follow a period of global cooling towards the end of this century.
Recent studies have observed alternating cycles of growth and decline in Arctic ice mass, said yesterday in Novosibirsk, Russia, Nikolai Dobretsov scholar, president of the Scientific Board of Natural Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences.
"The ice minimum was recorded in 2007. Between 2008 and 2011, and it seems in 2012, the ice has grown back. The winters in the Arctic are getting colder. It is obvious that continued global warming is a myth, "said Dobretsov at a press conference, quoted by Interfax.
Research by Russian scientists show that the mass of ice in the Arctic rises and falls cyclically, so it's natural that heating phase followed by other stages cooling.
"By the late start global cooling, not warming, are the latest forecasts," said Russian scientist.
-
I really believe this year will see destructive melt. The pack is incredibly thin. 15% thinner than last years pack. Worrying times ahead
Well , that may well be it for the 'winter'?
Looks like being another 'interesting melt season' ?
We'll see if 'export' from the basin reaches 'average' amounts as the in-situ melts of last year would suggest a 'record low' this summer if we see export at normal levels alongside the way the young ice melts now?
And Methane?
Also another large Berg ready to drop out of Jacobson?
-
Hmm I think the lack of snow is causing me to crack up! You are right! I think it was the precipitation expanding over the sea to the north west! Haha damn /:
I have checked and rechecked, unless my bearings are totally out of kilter with the UK then the precip band in the N.Sea is moving a more SW direction.
-
Look out in the sea the westward shift in the precipitation is causing it to veer slightly north as it moves over our region. The due south shift is stopping very quick on net extra radar
North West? You sure...
-
The band we need to look at is out in the north sea near hull. This is now moving north west! This is the first time I've seen a flow change! It will curve north west then south west towards south Yorkshire/north Derbyshire round 9pm giving us a couple of hours of snow
Can't see it happening yorkieblade. I'm not far from Bramall Lane and all looking rainy sleet and can't see that band shifting our way before it gets too far south, which it looks to me like it already is.
Hope I'm wrong tho may I add.
-
Pull Hudson just said to band could be curving round within the next hour to leave west and south yorkshire in the firing line
-
What's noticeable is the lack of a noticeable pivot west. It's definitely moving more south than south west. Stil time for this to change a la met office but surprised it hasn't happened yet! Anyone knowledgeable know why?
-
That Nae pretty much matches what I posted earlier. I completely agreed with you last night. The radar is god in these situations and the writing was on the wall for folk in the west last night!
Game on for the E Midlands.
http://expert-images...021000_0912.gif
Still without blowing my own trumpet I said last night this would happen.
Currently snowing here.
-
The precipitation is no where near where it should be and the front is showing signs of stalling! I can't see areas west of Birmingham being happy with the current happenings. I think Yorkshire, east midlands, south east and parts of west midlands are looking far better than they were 2 hours ago!
No ones trying to say it won't swing west and hit the SE instead, this is definitely what will happen - just hasn't done so YET and ppn still isn't in the location progged by the models.
-
You quote the met yes? You think they are correct yes? Well look away from the forecast that was on 5 mins ago! The snow has been moved into central England, east midlands, Yorkshire. The precipitation will reach you but mainly as rain with an hour or two of snow! The temperature was forecast as 4 degrees where you are. The west midlands will be the only western area to get disruptive snowfall that you'd get excited over. Not 2cm
But who said the metoffice are basing their forecasts on the NAE? Im on about the metoffice warnings and time and time again, Londoners and people in the SE which is the majority of members on NW are confusing people else where in the UK, even some of the experienced forecasters. It's not just people in the SE but in the main it is. Instead of constant hope casting please can we have accurate predictions based on the current charts, radar. Personally I believe the metoffice, they we're spot on last weekend, they put my part of Wales in the warning zones just in case as there was a chance of disruptive snowfall here if there was a shift, they haven't done that for London so for me that suggests its highly unlikely to be in London and SE. This constant SE bias has been bugging me for a while
-
I think that's a massively impressive spot and reLy outlines how the radar is ALWAYS your best friend in these situations. Models very rarely get precipitation perfect. Broadly speaking yes but in enough detail I'd say no. I'd say the met are the only people with the right resolution models to work this out!
Im not confusing anything. Fact is the NAE is predicting a dry evening across NE Scotland and it isn't. Just wait until midnight and the difference between the radar and the models will be even more noticeable.
Just posting what I see. Go and check the radar and compare with the NAE/GFS. Nobody can argue that the 18Z NAE is way off. Basically the NAE has the front too far NW. You can see this with your own eyes.
Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Can I just say you are the biggest success story to this forum this winter in my eyes, having the i input from the uk met on this board is invaluable and a massive asset not only to us but to the met office as the reputation of the organisation I think has risen in many posters eyes by sharing the information in a bigger public domain
Many thanks for the time you've put into your posts on here. Its greatly appreciated