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Everything posted by karlos1983
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Crapola hits the fan top filtering Nick I think it’s widely accepted that week 2 is going to see a return to milder conditions. It’s after that now that attentions are probably already turning too. BUT! It would be nice if Tuesday into Wednesday does deliver, although it’s looking increasingly unlikely, because who knows where the blocking will setup, for sure it will somewhere, but it’s high risk, especially for the southern contingent. But for me, end of next week the writing is on the wall, a reset of sorts before season 2!
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Agreed, this is far from done, I think it will be a struggle to get this system further north than the M4 ish now, most likely scenario is it just misses the south coast, but there’s definitely interest for folk down south, no question about it. if the ECM is showing it then it’s a distinct possibility, need a couple more to come on board for it to become a probability….. TBC
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
karlos1983 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'll take that at this juncture.. good signs that the low isnt going to barrel into the uk bringing Southerly winds.. we are already getting a continental flow at 216 -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
karlos1983 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
looks good to me, that low to the south west is starting to elongate as it goes under the force of the block. Could be a cracking end to the run -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
karlos1983 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-6 to -8 850's in a fairly unstable airmass? yes please -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
karlos1983 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At least after what looks to a mad mild spell for mid winter, temperatures do look set to drop to something a bit more akin to average, a few ens members certainly raise the eyebrows and keep interest and hope for the cold hearted to cling on to. There’s still a lot of winter to come. merry Christmas everyone