[Model output discussion - heading into 2018]

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm sorry but teleconnections are useful for both medium and long range forecasting and over a long period of time those using how the tropical momentum anomalies spread to the poles and slow down/ speed up will have better forecasting abilities than those who don't.

I feel that you are becoming like a stuck record peddling the same message year after year. We get it! You don't believe that teleconnections are of any benefit whatsoever and you would rather bizarrely use seaweed to forecast the weather in two weeks time. The last time I saw a bit of seaweed I did ask it what the weather forecast would be for a fortnight and it just looked blankly back at me.

The fact is, that there are many factors that determine the global weather patterns from stratospheric influences to tropical Ocean temperature anomalies and solar influences. So those attempting to put these pieces of the jigsaw together should be lauded and not dismissed. Scientists may take a whole lifetime to prove a hypothesis with many failures along the line, but without this we wouldn't advance as a society.

So, Yes using teleconnections to forecast in the medium ranges is going to have its ups and downs, and yes there is a chaotic system out there, but there is order to that chaos and the challenge is always to find that order and why certain weather patterns exist. To suggest that ignoring (for instance) the stratospheric influences on our weather pattern in two weeks time, is now accepted as being short sighted and ignorant and I am sure that you are neither, TEITS. 

So why the continually knocking of those using medium range teleconnections? It very much reminds me of the attitude I faced when opening the first strat thread, and how those doubters have been proved wrong now. For every teleconnective forecast that doesn't deliver there is a learning opportunity for the future. I have learnt nothing from seaweed.

 

Surely everyone can express an opinion on a forum whether for or against teleconnections? As a long-time lurker I find the above post unnecessarily inflammatory. Teleconnections are often quoted on here and appear to be very often of no use to our small island in certain setups...there's also a huge lack of commentary on what controls/drives these teleconnections from certain posters...hats off to those who try and predict > 7-10 days out and who understand the drivers not just the measure of what a modelled activity may or may not equate to in terms of the weather in the UK. Do we really think convection on the other side of the world is that important? Our geographical position ultimately results in tiny features having a big impact and until a wedge/shortwave can be accurately forecasted more than a few days out there's no chance to accurately forecast mid-long term for the UK (which is what the vast majority of us are interested in - not the long wave pattern). 

[Scotland Regional Discussion16th July 2013 onwards]

Scraping ice off the car here in aberdeen this morning!

[Scotland Regional Discussion16th July 2013 onwards]

Pretty toasty 21 just now

[Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->]

It looks almost like 2nd/3rd February 2009 in reverse, but with a slightly longer easterly. I'd suggest that if we keep rolling the metaphorical -8C uppers dice at some point we're likely to see a proper lowland pasting. It could well be this Monday/ Tuesday for some.

Fingers crossed, hopefully less of a south easterly this time - less modification up here - and ssts slightly lower than the last cold spell. Surely ! But still expecting to be doing this -

[Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->]

Snow/hail showers in Aberdeen. Much more enjoyable than an easterly - a diurnal range, sun in between the showers and the showers are fairly wild

[WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013]

I think those chasing the cold still need to point out that 90% of the output is average ( born out of milder & cooler periods)

there is no cold within 10 days. The GFS is still trying to get cold at day 15, meanwhile the days tick by...

& just above for GP- the signals maybe thus- ie AAM state etc, however your posts seem to be getting shorter & shorter with teleconnection patterns that are lower & lower in direct correlation to the UK itself-

Maybe that in itself correlates to the state of the output V your postings over the last week around reload of cold- IE- SSW blocking pattern reloading, then GWO pattern driving amplification & now AAM driving mid lattitude cold.

At some point maybe someone should chip up with the 'persistence' factor of this winter... persistence is a royal PITA ( Pain in the A) however this years persistence has defied the teleconnective signals but the removal of any greenland blocking.

Without that the chance of anything sustainedfrom the North or EAST of North is remote.....

S

Not really true is it?

[Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>]

Thundersnow in Aberdeen