Panayiotis
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Posts posted by Panayiotis
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Remember that things tend to move south and east of the pattern that is forecasted; great if you’re looking at the GFS not so great if you’re looking at the UKMO
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23 minutes ago, booferking said:
The link up is perfection doesn't get any better than that really.
Although 10 days away, we just need to be careful with the heights being pulled from Africa (which moves over France then over us). For the real cold pattern this would need to be cut off ASAP otherwise there is a risk for high pressure developing over the UK which would shunt the cold away.
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To those fearing a -west based NAO:
Note that a *forecasted* -west based NAO is not the same as a current -west based NAO
I actually prefer to see a -west based NAO forecasted in the models as the majority of the time everything gets shifted east; putting the UK in for a direct hit of the cold.
Nonetheless, model watching next few weeks should be fun and they have definitely sparked my interest for a period of colder weather.
The initial height increase looks too close to our north, which should pull an easterly but conditions look dry.
It’s the retrogression back into Greenland which could be the cherry we’re looking for but that’s 10+ days away…
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Snowing here in Cardiff, not heavy enough to have any substance but the flakes are settling
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Well we did get the heavier ppn into the far South Wales now heading into Newport. It’s fallen as rain/snow mix here in Cardiff anyone else higher up report it being heavy snow?
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I think that band will just about miss us here in Wales
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4 minutes ago, snowy36 said:
The eyes are on the prize, will any of us get hit with the x tonight
Just my thoughts that looks beefy but AROME takes it into SW UK and just misses us
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A cluster of shower entering S Wales now, hopefully they stick around for when it gets dark as it’s falling as snow but not sticking…
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7 minutes ago, snefnug said:
My daft cat keeps going out into snow, then coming back looking yeti like and bewildered.
Snow now easing off. Can’t quite understand meto afternoon forecast. Are we due more snow tonight and tomorrow or is it sidestepping up straight to Cumbria?
Another hard situation, likely snow to rain event for coasts in the morning, disruptive snow likely for elevated areas away from the west
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1 minute ago, Panayiotis said:
Rain mixed with snow here
Heavy snow! Very wet though
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Rain mixed with snow here
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Must say great event for a lot of us in S Wales. Nice to see snow and in Cardiff because it hasn’t settled on roads most can on with their day.
Potential for more over the next 36hours but more risk of it being wet as conditions will be marginal.
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Snow came at the perfect time, might get snowfall in the day but will be hard to stick to non-snow surfaces so need to get everything covered before the sun comes up
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Yeah a lot heavier now settling on all surfaces
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Hopefully as it pivots the precipitation will pep up. This should also allow for evaporative cooling which should give a settling on roads
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Snowing in Cardiff and settling on cars
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6 hours ago, Stuie W said:
Strong agreement that the AO is going to go the most positive it has been since at least October.
It also shows a bizarre quick drop back, again with good agreement.
Make what you think out of that. What ever cold there is still left, signs it is not going US wise.
Seeing a high AO is great in terms of building cold. +AO = Tighter vortex means the cold is ‘bottled up’ over the Arctic. Allows for even colder air to spill its way into the mid latitudes where blocking patterns occur (hopefully for the UK)
We saw a strong/tighter vortex in 2018 before the BFTE:
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On 31/01/2023 at 08:08, Panayiotis said:
Doesn’t the PV ramp up before a SSW? I wonder if that’s what’s going on now…I can remember it being said a few years ago, can anyone help with the topic?
Coincidence?
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I do wonder if the GFS was onto something but caught it a bit early. When it’s done it in the past, the pattern normally shows up quickly on all the models at a later time frame. Will be interesting to see if this is one of those times…
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Doesn’t the PV ramp up before a SSW? I wonder if that’s what’s going on now…I can remember it being said a few years ago, can anyone help with the topic?
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1 hour ago, wimblettben said:
Currently -7℃ or so at the moment so its another very cold one.
I wonder if we will get the coldest night of the year so far from this spell tonight. I would think we would given that the lowest a few nights ago was -7.9℃ and it is hovering around -7.5℃ to -7.6℃ out there currently with already a hard frost.
If skies can clear then any snowfields should see some really cold temps over the next 2 nights
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Untreated roads here in Cardiff are extremely treacherous thanks to the rain which fell earlier
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Dew points are over 0c towards the coasts at the moment so unlikely for showers to turn to snow. Poses large risk for ice however when temps drop later.
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ECM going to be a great run IMO shortwave ejection into France and heights building in the Atlantic, 2 great signals you want to see
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Flakes here in the wind . Cardiff