Captain Shortwave

With the gfs giving surface temperatures of 4-7c in the south one would struggle to even call it surface cold. The GFS transfers the high east so quickly the initial NE blast this coming weekend simply grinds to a halt across the Midlands before less cold air pushes in from the sputh east which through this period remains fairly mild. Lets hope it is handling the split jet badly and we can get cold air more entrenched across Europe. GEM superb as per the last few runs.

The pattern tends to dry itself out in the east though a SE flow would probably be sunny with overnight frosts, that high isn't going to sink from here on this run. The Atlantic trough is sharpening and disrupting with the Scandi high gaining further ground, once the trough sinks towards Iberia the high would have the opprtunity to push westwards allowing another surge of cold air to come in from the north east. Surface temperatures here would be close to freezing by day for most of the UK. Day 10, high beginning to retrogress with a link up with the developing Atlantic ridge with bitterly cold air pushing into Eastern Europe.

We have much more substantial low heights to our south compared to this mornings run. vs The high should trasfer across the north of the country with a cold ENE flow across the south with winds falling light over Scotland and Northern England with harsh frosts. Lets see how the easterly develops. Day 7 - Pretty good 850s of -8C still in the south though the amount of convection may become limited with rising heights. The incoming Atlantic low looks in a pretty good shape to undercut the high.

Happy New year to everyone, hopefully the remaining two thirds of this winter will deliver for all of us. As usualplease try to keep things on topic, well a little bit of weather chat at least. Thankyou

Nearly 250 pages, methinks it is time for a new thread New thread here;

The good news is that the models are starting to pick up weak heights developing to our north around the day 6 mark. The GFS not so keen tonight (But has also hinted at something similar on previous runs), but the pattern doesn't look like a normal zonal pattern with low pressure taking a more southerly track. There certainly seems a real possiblity of wintry conditions developing in the first week of January, especially later on that week though details look rather uncertain for now. All I can say is that the outcome will probably not pan out like the ECM with low pressure stalling over SW England.

At this juncture I think the only issue here is whether that weak high develops to our north east which is currently at the 8-10 day range. Now we have the GFS and GEM developing this now. We will have to wait a few days for the ramifications of this but I doubt much can be taken from a low resolution operational output. So the fact we have model output starting to consistently build that weak high is a start at least. It could disappear on the model output or remain with a diffrrent path taken beyond this point.

Nah just frost this morning, there were a few showers clipping the coast during the first part of the night before clear skies prevailed across the region. Enjoy the sunshine today, back to wind and rain as we head into the new year. I am not sure on how far south the snow will get from tomorrows front as it will be moving into cold air, but I would say the further north and west you are in the region then leading edge snow is possible.

Better than expected given the wind was supposed to veer quickly to a west/northwesterly as the front cleared away. Still it isn't cold enough for snow to settle but again it is nice to see. Moving forward, no sign of significant cold but I don't see a major mild spell, just average with wiggle room for weather cold enough for snow at times, even a proper northerly blast shouldn't be ruled out.

Got back from the pub, there seems to be a few snow showers running in off the north sea which was nice to see.

Really really grim and despite heavier precipitation and falling temperatures the best we are managing is icy rain.

In Great Yarmouth for a few days. Just rain here.

Merry Christmas everyone. Another gloomfest but tomorrow look bright as the cold front moves through overnight.

Happy Christmas everyone. Hopefully weather will return in the next day or so......

A real lack of sunshine for a good few days now, tomorrow looks no different but at least we should see some brightness on Boxing day for a while. The chance of something wintry inland on the 27th, but it looks even more marginal than the last snow event so I suspect only high ground will see anything meaningful but this could surprise us.

I guess we can all concentrate on the Christmas build up, weather is officially cancelled. Cloudy, mild with winds never getting above a moderate breeze with only a few spots of rain all the way up to and including the big day. Maybe, just maybe something more interesting will develop from Boxing day onwards but that is a fair way off.

The outlook still looks mild and quite dry until Christmas with more changeable conditions developing around Christmas, but I must admit the chances of very wet and windy weather developing is decreasing as time goes on, mainly as we are probably not going to see that raging vortex to our north west thanks to the Pacific ridge punching through to the north Pole. ECM/UKMO/GFS day 6 The ECM/UKMO still really going for this with the likely scenario of a strong Arctic high forming. I can see the ECM trying the same trick with the morning run, look for the Siberian lobe to try and make a break towards Scandinavia so it is down to where the high ends up, if it can land somewhere between Greenland and Norway it could disrupt low pressure exiting Canada and then suddenly we have a very different prospect as we head towards New Year. I can't see raging zonality coming off going by the model trends, we could still see westerlies but much more subdued with shallower lows moving across, though as with the ECM we could end up with a UK based trough, but we could see something colder develop instead. Whilst the chages have been fairly small regarding that ridge, the fact that we are seeing this get right into the Arctic as opposed to reaching Alaska and then collasping has big implications further down the road, especially as I supect the troposphric vortex will come under intense strain as opposed to the typical EPO ridge which seems to feed a mass of purple over Canada/Greenland for which we have seen over the last couple of winters.

The UKMO/GFS and GEM this morning A major ridge over the Pacific which seems to have been upgraded in its northward push over the past few days, the major risk during the Christmas/New Year period seems to be the possibility that the entirety of the tropospheric vortex could end up on the Atlantic side hence giving the sense of Zonality even if the polar vortex has been heavily compacted compared to its usual presence across the Arctic. With this at day 6, I wouldn't discount anything as we approach the new year as modeling what happens to this ridge (The possiblity of a cut off Arctic high looks likely) is going to be very unpredictable. I guess the phrase cautious optimism is the right thing to use here. The UKMO seems to offer the most optimistic outcome for the UK with the ridge piecing right through the north pole whilst the other two see the ridge attacked from the west.

A proper air frost this morning with some freezing fog. Unfortunately it has lifted into a gloomfest with the temperatures picking up quite quickly.

Raining here now which is a shame as the snow is melting quite quickly.

Approaching 6 hours of non stop steady snowfall here. Probably got a couple of inches on the ground.

I think I can upgrade the snow here to moderate with decent sized flakes now. A centimetre or two on the ground now. I am happy for everyone who has woken up to the best snow event since 2013 and to think we haven't even reached Christmas yet.

Just a quiet reminder that for those who want to post about their snow (or lack of in some cases), can you please use the regionals threads, the general winter chat threads or no snow club section please. A few posts have already been removed this morning. Thankyou

A solid dusting here now, if only some of the heavier bursts could reach here.

We have snow starting to fall in Peterborough now, just light stuff at the moment.