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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. Captain Shortwave
    Clear sky here, I want my blob!!!
  2. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst many are looking west, the blob in the north sea has called the met into action Issued at - 17 Jan 2013, 16:11 Valid from - 17 Jan 2013, 18:00 Valid to - 17 Jan 2013, 23:55 Snow showers will move slowly westwards from the North Sea into eastern parts of Norfolk and Suffolk through this evening, giving local accumulations of 5 cm of fresh snow. The public are advised of the continuing risk of some disruption to travel.
  3. Captain Shortwave
    No point bothering looking at the 18z, when the mods and Ian Brown are condemning the run to the bin, you cannot trust a single frame of it (defaults after just 120h)
  4. Captain Shortwave
    When the shortwave goes under on Monday, you get a split in the depressions. Yet again another choice, does energy go north or south. Logically, like all the other models do, the energy keeps going south into France. GFS, yet again decides to send energy north flattening the high a returning atlantic conditions. My faith in this model is falling through the floor (unless its right of course)
  5. Captain Shortwave
    mix of snow/graupel setting in here, there is a dusting everywhere now so I'm happy Floatylight, on 16 January 2013 - 21:16 , said: Did anyone wonder where i was today??? Just in a nd e Someone wrote me car off and nearly me. Whiplash ,knee,hand. But home safe and sound and lots of time for weather watching now. Made essex radio if u was listening today was in great horksley ,colchester, 3 cars involved i was trollied off.Anyway give me lots to read over the coming days peeps,i be bored as hell. Ouch, get well soon.
  6. Captain Shortwave
    Me too, I hate this place
  7. Captain Shortwave
    Snow on and off, not settling. Seem to be right on the edge. No thunder here though
  8. Captain Shortwave
    Grey skies here, a little graupel very dark to the west, looks like it's missing Yarmouth, feel free anyone west of post to send a pic, a picture of a winter wonderland, it's better than no snow at all Edit - scratch that it's snowing Edit again - it stopped after 30 seconds
  9. Captain Shortwave
    High risk stuff this. GFS, the -5 isotherm sticks to the far north East of Scotland throughout, many places in the UK would have a snow to rain event and would be cold but not very cold. At the end of high resolution, the low clears with a north Easterly pulled in as heights rebuild over scandinavia (ignore low res as the low in the Atlantic reverses and ploughs right into us instead of retreating further) ECM - -5 Isomer stays from a line Birmingham northwards, lots of potential major snow events though the far South would probably have rain. UKMO, even further South with probably only the south coast and devon and Cornwall will have rain, whilst a snowfest begins for many South of the border with scotland perhaps keeping a showery east/south east feed. This is a forecasters nightmare whilst there is some sort of agreement on the breakdown, times are rather different and the line between snow and rain varies. UKMO still holds firm with the other two models slowly progressing towards that solution. Who will get snow? TBH no one will know until about 12 hours out at the earliest. Also breakdown here I mean as in the loss of high pressure over the uk, not necessarily cold.
  10. Captain Shortwave
    What strikes me even more is the scatter that starts to occur by the 17th, FI is less than 48 hours!!! Uncertainty for sure.
  11. Captain Shortwave
    Whilst that is true, you have to remember that this model was doing the exact same thing last week. I said this earlier stating how from early on GFS seem to always favour energy going north rather than south when you get a jet split. This has huge effects as it undermines the block to our north east. If other runs keep saying undercut, then GFS will eventually come into line (touchwood )
  12. Captain Shortwave
    ECM follows UKMO to an extent but not as far in the earlier stages. I don't want to dismiss GFS by any means as it could still be right, but to me it seems to be making the same mistake as last week. We have a split in energy and whilst most models takes most of the energy south East, GFS takes this east/north east. Same situation, same split in model runs.
  13. Captain Shortwave
    Rain/Sleet/Snow mix here, any chance that coastal areas will get any lying snow before the end of the night?
  14. Captain Shortwave
    Heavy rain here
  15. Captain Shortwave
    Sleety drizzle now, but it might turn to snow when it peps up
  16. Captain Shortwave
    Heavy snow supposedly causing havoc on the A11/A47 (Thetford/Norwich area), slowly heading this way (I hope )
  17. Captain Shortwave
    Light Snow in Great Yarmouth, looks brief though with a brighter patch of sky approaching, the appetiser methinks
  18. Captain Shortwave
    Ah shucks, Hope for plenty of convective showers tomorrow.
  19. Captain Shortwave
    Tescos brand for me, won't buy heinz unless it's on offer, hate being a graduate I am a little worried about snow tonight, looks like it might turn back to rain when the winds back east/north east, or is it the bbc forecast over doing it. Also I liked the end of tuesday on that forecast
  20. Captain Shortwave
    Given ECM and it's essembles, I wouldn't put it in either camp, It's certainly not bringing the Atlantic in at a reliable time frame and many members show prolonged cold. Mean temperature for london doesn't rise above 2/3oC So it's more UKMO/GEM vs GFS Two models with consistency over the past week against GFS hmmmmmm
  21. Captain Shortwave
    Same thoughts exactly. I just hope this run doesn't verify, the 6z is soon going to have the title of "the duck run" It would be a great bonus if we can get pressure to stay high to our immediate north/north east, it would also have us in prime position of retrogression later on as GEM showed in it's fi earlier.
  22. Captain Shortwave
    ECM better with less energy going over the top of the high, but refuses to let the cold stay beyond the end of the week. It's still out on it's on. UKMO and GEM are superb this morning both really wanting to later drop a large low into finland which allows the high to our north east to start moving up towards iceland/greenland with a big slider underneath, it's a polar vortex pincer movement.
  23. Captain Shortwave
    GFS Ens show what a horrendously hard job the met have over the weather next week. The mean is a lot milder the further north and west you go showing support for ridging from the Azores sinking the high to our north east. Still a lot of colder solutions. Absolutely no clue after next Thursday really. Depends whether the jet goes straight to the South or goes over the top. This is very marginal and absolutely major to our weather for the end of next week/weekend onwards. At least we have the next few days to enjoy With snow at least for Eastern areas and plenty of cold sunny weather with hard frosts. Add that to the messy ecm as well I will continue the stand I made to day (agreeing with the likes of Jasonm and many others) that we will have a sustained block for the foreseeable. I really hope that the mist clears soon, It's turning into a warzone on here at times.
  24. Captain Shortwave
    Hopefully the snowline will progress westwards tomorrow. Frankly the models seem to making a complete shambles of this entire set up, with huge movements in the short term, even the likes of gp and chio seem to be ranting in the strat thread about why the models are not showing any significant blocking haha. Either way hopefully snow monday onwards until Thursday at least. Maybe I might wake up with a dusting tomorrow (heres to hoping )
  25. Captain Shortwave
    There has been one clear trend over the last few days, and that is the continuous downgrading of the strength of the jet coming out of the Eastern seaboard across the atlantic. Look at the link up behind mon/tues shortwave. That was not even possible a few days back due to energy piling through the gap with high pressure to the north. ECM/GFS are cottoning on to a final solution, but I feel UKMO and GEM has shown far greater consistancy and with the mets bullish forecast suggests perhaps a stronger scandi high forming. I would think that would be the final outcome.
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