Snowy Easterlies
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Posts posted by Snowy Easterlies
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i had 8 inches of snow here in bedford on the 18th December 2010, the most i can remember for at least 15 years, so to get another huge dumping just 2 years later is unlikely but not impossible, we have too keep our expectations lower, even though its hard not to get carried away, when people hear about these "good signals" for winter and the ramping starts, we are not in russia, even though people have said that cliche thousands of times, we still hope for a brutal winter when it is more likely to just be average
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the polar vortex is weaker in summer though, anyway im not qualified enough to go into great detail, i just think people get carried away when they see blocking and think its going to last for weeks and weeks, i firmly believe in the law of averages, if we see a spell of this blocking now, in a few weeks time it will be the turn of the azores high or zonailty, unless the Atlantic stays very sluggish for the next 4 months which it won't probably
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I dont believe in the 'good synoptics wasted' or 'quota of blocking' arguments at all, however, the further you get into autumn then the more stormy and wet it usually becomes but at the moment there is no sign of a powerful Jet, you will always get more blocking patterns out of season than in late autumn / winter, the temperature / pressure gradient is steeper where the Jetstream lies between polar air and tropical air but we are looking for the jetstream to be south uf us in winter, the way this happens is disruption to the polar vortex, either by shifting it from greenland, splitting it, or better still completely ripping it to shreds, the only way the latter will happen is with a warming of the strat, the key is in the stratosphere.
there is no sign for now of a powerful jet, but as you say the more into autumn you go it fires up normally, the atlantic crashing into us is the norm, greenie highs are not the norm, well apart from our last few summers
i am just being pessimistic though
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there is no such thing as wasted synoptics....
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Greenland high synoptics don't come around every week though, where as you know the Atlantic probably will have some sort of influence, sooner or later, with us being an island next to it.
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Weather in the Northern Hemisphere is very sluggish, if Northern Blocking does develop then don't expect it to disappear anytime soon.
Agree we can become locked into patterns, so we could be locked into this northern blocking patten till end of november, then by december, we get a pattern change and we get locked into a bartlett high pattern for ages, who knows though i've seen us have greenie blocking only for a few days before it gets shunted out of the way, and i've seen us have zonialty for 5 days then a scandi high devlops
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Are these good synoptics showing in the models being wasted now? lets be honest the greenland high is not a common synoptic, the azores high, or a bog standard low pressure system going from west to east over us is, so this blocking is wasted in october, we could have blocking for the rest of this month and it won't give us snow, then come november a pattern change could happen, and we could be stuck in raging westerlies for ages, just a guess obviously no scientific research done from me, so to those that think this blocking is a good sign for winter then im afraid i don't believe you, though im happy to eat humble pie if these synoptics pop up again in november, december, we all know how hard the atlantic can be to shift once its gets going
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I dont really think any type of cold weather will statisfy many now days on here.
Last winter was spectacular cf 1990s /2000s when instead of 9 days of lying snow we only had the odd flake in March. I know a lot of it is IMBY but 3/4 yrs ago everyone would be jumping if we had a sub 3c CET. Now i am sure there will be bitter disappointments and talk of rubbish winter if we have 1c CET but little snow.
-6.7c recorded in scotland tonight in 1907 could we beat that record this evening ? Wont beat 25.6c in Farnborough 1921 thats for sure.
agree people get greedy, so they want more, last winter was still better than many of the 2000s, i had a week of lying snow and -13 in February this year but compared to the previous winter it was rubbish.
i don't think i have ever seen blocking like this in october before, albeit i have only being viewing these models for about 4 years, shame its come too early but lets hope a raging jet doesn't emerge by november or the azores high
Edit GFS 18z gets rid of the blocking quickly anyway, so if it were winter snow wouldn't last long
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maybe i should change my question to 10 mild winters instead of 5, then that will be a harder choice lol
we got impatient last winter, moaned a lot about the mild weather, and the winter before that was pretty decent, so 10 years of mild rubbish would be hard to cope with, even after a winter like 47, though we coped in the 90's and most of the 2000s, when it was mild
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If you had to choose, would you rather have 10 average winters in a row, or would you like to see a 1947 or 1962/63 type winter this coming winter and then for the next 10 winters it would have to be well above average ?
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true, it was the 18z, however lets hope some sort of Euro high don't set up shop over us now, like it did last autumn, all this optimism from people, about there being "good signals" for late autumn and winter and imagine the opposite happened, eg Bartlett high, southerlies, raging PV over greenland bringing dry settled rubbish,
surely it can't happen two years in a row can it, i remember people last year saying "its only october" then look what happened, no decent blocking came til February, anyway im not saying this is gonna happen, but we can't always put our faith into these good signals for northern blocking as sadly the weather is not that straight forward
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All this ramping on here about a cold winter, anyway don't look at the GFS 18z , unless your like Gavin, Aka summer sun
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http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-834.png?06
http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-834.png?06
just over a month away but i think uppers are not quite cold enough
when is the earliest possible time for a decent northeasterly or easterly, mid november ?
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the jet spent a lot of time to the north of us last winter though, so who knows if there is a permanent change to our weather or it was just a blip in the winters of 08-09, 09-10 and part of 10-11
anyway i think i will end up going mental if i start looking at every model run now, hoping we don't see a raging jet and south westerlies going into svalbard
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its annoying because i would love to see cold synoptics in october even if it can't deliver snow, but at least we get frosts, and colder temps, average temps bore me, but trouble is, its almost impossible for it to stay cold from now right the way till march, the azores high is likely to set up over us at some time as it is a much more common synoptic than the greenie high in winter. im a firm believe in the law of averages so tbh i hope we don't see any northerlies or easterlies now otherwise we will probably have to wait ages for another shot. as it will be the turn of zonailty after a possible period of northern blocking later this month,
who knows though it can be zonal one day then 5 days later we can have an easterly, anything can happen
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Agreed, and the notion that because its March the first that the weather suddenly flicks a switch and an easterly cannot deliver is nonsense as well.
Yep we saw some cracking charts in the models this march that had - 12 uppers across us, from an easterly, but of course they downgraded as the time got closer, so yes we can still see a stonking easterly in early to mid march under the right synoptics
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I think some people tend to exaggerate the sun's strength in late winter, there is often talk of "Strong sun" and "long days" in February and March but when you compare the length of days early-mid Feb is on par with the last few days of October/early November and even the first 11 days of March are on par with early October. However, you very rarely hear of a strong sun when these months are discussed. I think it's psychological, in Feb/March the days are getting longer and (sometimes) warmer which after such a long period of darkness gives the impression the days are longer than they actually are. It's easy to underestimate the length of a day at a time when you know they are getting shorter as much as it is to overestimate the length of one at a time when you know they are getting longer.
Agree, i mentioned in an earlier post, that its physiological, people are getting down about it getting dark early now, when it actually still gets darker a bit later now than it does for most of march, albeit we are on BST time now and GMT in march, in march people are happy that spring is on its way and the days are getting longer etc so there is a false illusion there,
Also, i agree people would be surprised if you told them march was on average colder than november, this again is mainly down to the fact it gets darker earlier in november than march, and the fact that in november winter is on its way, and in march its spring, they don't take into account the lag effect scenario
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I always find November to January is best for old and snow, by February the sun is starting to get stronger and higher again
By February the days also gain rapidly for example in Newcastle the daylight hours on the 1st are around 8h 46m but by the 28th its around 10h 41m
yeah i did say after mid feb its a rapid change, but it snowed here in early feb in 2009 and it didn't melt much apart from main roads and roofs, in early november the days are still about 10 hours long, so snow might melt then, but i wouldn't know as snow around here in early november is rare as hen's teeth
for an example the length of day between sunrise and sunset in london on the 25th of november is 8hrs 25m and on the 5th of feb its 9hrs 21mins, so only about an hour difference, not much really, anyway it all changes with various dates between the 2 months
the point is though its likely to be far colder in feb than november due to lag effect, so more chance of snow in feb, regardless of how early it gets dark in november,
like i get a lot of frosts in april when people think it should be warm, but in october i rarely get frosts, when people think it should be cold cos it gets dark early, again lag effect comes into play
Also Gavin it can be 18c in november under the right synoptics, i prey to god that it don't happen though
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Snow in early feb will still stick around, its usually after mid feb when the sun starts gaining strength rapidly, its still get dark at about 5pm in early feb, and daylight at 7 30 am
plus although it gets dark at 4 or 4:30 in November, it is also light at around 7am for most of the month, esp in england, as the clocks go back, so not much difference between November and early feb really in terms of daylight hours,
What about snow in the USA, their latitude is more south than us so how does snow stick around there ?
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be great to have a winter like 2010, 24th Nov-27th Dec, not really winter 2010/2011, for me as was mainly mild after new year
to me the real winter is from around 15th Nov to about 5th Jan, after Xmas and new year, seems to be milder and Spring on the way
Real winter starts on the 15th Nov ? thats a bit early, there are still leaves on the trees around here in some years in mid Nov, in most years it don't snow on low ground in the south in November, Nov 2010 was rare. February will always be more winter like than November despite the strengthening sun, i think its all down to psychology, in November you are getting ready for winter, in feb you are getting ready for spring, i can recall quite a few snow events here in Feb
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Part three already, it feels like we get more desperate for snow every year on here, i have been a lurker for years, i recently lost my account as my computer broke so i had to make a new one,
maybe we just want cold and snow more this winter though as last winter was crap
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So here's one for you.
If you could choose ONE month in Winter for it to be cold and snowy , which month would you choose ??
and another thing I have noticed is a very slight increase on the little red line on the ensembles early in Jan (the average 850 Temperature line)..I'll see if I can find a graphic to illustrate this...anyone know why there's a small rise in the 850 average uppers in early Jan ??
Mid December to mid January, because the days are shortest, its the christmas period, so it wil feel festive and i can't wait all the way to February for snow
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i don't like the GFS charts in FI, its shows the azores high ridging in, and has been doing for some runs now
i may be totally wrong but i hope some sort of euro high don't set up shop for ages now, we can all say its only october, but remember last year, we said its only october, november when it was horribly mild, but we had to wait till February for anything cold and snowy, i just hope my amateurish predictions are wrong, and hope there isn't a similar repeat to last winter
I cannot stand boring, mild, dry settled spells in autumn, i hope we see some gales, lots of rain and its chilly too, so yes cold zonailty would be fine, then bring on the raging easterlies in winter
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Hello, remember me, i suspect most won't though lol, i had to change my name from snowy easterly to snowy easterlies as i messed up my email address so had to re register
anyway, i hope it gets hot this weekend, i doubt i will see 30c but i suspect london probably will
Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
i don't think you need to worry, you will get snow at some point as you live on high ground in the north, you are much more likely to see decent snow than me, unless we get a channel low of course then i could do well, im too far inland, for northerlies, northwesterlies, and even northeasterlies don't deliver here, easterlies do the business but are rare as hens teeth