[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

Forgive my ignorance, but surely the NAO and AO forecasts are exactly that ? - forecasts based on the latest model outputs. As the models are flip flopping from one scenario to the next, as it is they reflect only the model output at the current time and a useless indicator of the weather?

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec]

Goodness so much doom and gloom. Hey it's cold at the moment and has been really since the end of autumn, had two falls of snow already this winter, small amounts but lovely to see all the same.. How can anyone be sure beyond 5-7 days ( general pattern only), how this winter pans out. The bbc monthly forecast issued today has reasonable confidence in a return to below/ slightly below temperatures prior to Christmas and turning milder again by the new year. Beyond that is anyone's guess surely as shown by the huge flip flopping of the models over the last week??

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3]

Did pretty well for snowfall and cold temps last year, albeit late in the season - three weeks of cold temps, two snowfalls of six and eight inches a week or so apart late jan feb, which laid on the ground for eleven days in the east riding. Well worth the wait! We actually missed the first snowfall by one day ( due to skiing in the southern French alps) but there was plenty of snow for the kiddies to enjoy! Lol best not write winter off yet hey, let's see what happens ..