TAFKAP
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Posts posted by TAFKAP
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I'm afraid I only see this going one way today! Mild! Expect ECM and ukmo to follow suit. I just think this winter was doomed since December. Ain't getting the brakes I'm afraid.
What a well thought out response to the model output there and thank you for backing up your thoughts with such a detailed analysis and providing us with such illustrative charts. Your input is very helpful indeed!
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Great charts but you can bet had it been a mild outcome the shannon whatever wouldnt be mentioned. Whenever cold and snow is in the mix in the UK bottoms start quivering .im hoping it is a very severe spell of weather just to test the airheads who think 7 degrees is bitterly cold. Big respect to Fergie for the snippets of info. But given the seriousness of what could happen i bet his bosses have told him to give very minimal info.
Good point you have their, apart from the elderly, ill and very young who do need protection from cold I am always highly amused to go to work on a mild morning with no wind chill like today and see people dressed like they are about to embark on an arctic expedition. I see people in huge scarves, thick gloves, fur Ushankas etc. What do they do when it is actually cold? These are the same ones who come into the office on a lovely frosty, bright morning and moan about how cold it is and they can't stand it.
NB The coldest I have been personally is -30 degrees C. Now at at that temperature you can complain, not at 5 degrees above freezing!
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Lol at the GFS ops. After being faultless it suddenly throws out a stinker but it unlikely to be right now. ECM is stonking.
Stinker? I think you must have been looking at a different run.
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I see the moaning slowly creeping back in. Could I remind you all we don't live in Siberia and this isn't 1963. The RELIABLE timeframe looks fantastic.
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Would love to hear some expert analysis from Ian Brown this evening. Any thoughts on the ECM 12z output Ian?
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WOW ! over 1,000 people and growing in the model thread this evening, having seen the GFS 12z I can understand why. anyone remind me what the record is ?
1963 lol
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It must be said....from the M4 north. The south of that would be just rain/sleet
The precip charts show snow south of the M4 as well actually.
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T+90 upgrade for heavy snow potential
Bank that chart! In the 'teapot' era this would have had people wetting themselves with excitement.
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Either that or you're taking some posts too seriously
Fair enough, but that said I thought the post a few pages back about snow in Jerusalem and Palestine was taking the Michael but looks to be some truth in it http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/259224
(NB Fun fact, although you might not think it, Jerusalem gets snow pretty much each year)
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"That ECM" was great...but didn't deliver what it wrote on the tin..
"That GFS" was superb and i really hope it does deliver.....
But should we be afraid, be very afraid, of "That Email" ?
@fergieweather - Ian did you get that email?...
Confidence in a great cold spell seems to have dropped a little as far as our professional friends are concerned....does the answer lie in "That Email"?
I think you're starting to over analyse things a little. As good as the Meto are (no seriously!) they are not omniscient and 'that email' could just as well say the Meto are now worrying about England being covered in several feet of snow in 10 days time (unlikely, yes). This is starting to get a little silly actually and we need to stop micro-analysing every comment by every weather bod on social media and get back to the NWP output which at the moment, to take an objective view, is about as far from having it 'nailed' as it possible to be. To use an analogy the roulette wheel has been spun but that ball is still sputtering around and where it lands is anyone's guess.
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Tell that to the METO who are possibly about to change their outlook from cold and snowy last night to something more mild this morning.
Sorry but that update will soon be very out of date, and will not carry on the very cold snowy theme.
But given the flip flopping of late, wouldn't the Meto look very silly changing to the degree you suggest. The output could be different yet again come this evening.
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Some shocking ensembles for cold on the 00z this morning, we may as well write off winter:
Personally i find this model watching at its very best
These are terrible charts! The uppers just aren't cold enough for snow and the all the cold remains stuck in Europe!!! Shocking charts for cold lovers, it just makes me so mad I want to throw teddy out of the pram, WAHHHH!!! LOL
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Thanks for that. Will be interesting to see the METO do a MASSIVE 'U' turn on the previous update we have had......
Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period).
Thanks for the update latitude, sounds very promising. Where do you get your meto information from though? Is it something publicly accessible or insider knowledge? On a side note I'd like it if there were a netweather member called longitude so the two of you could constantly be working at cross-purposes LOL
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Good morning Ian, I hope Ian F does not mind me using his post from last night, but if you read this and also consider Matt Hugo's post this morning I think they provide a much more balanced veiw than reacting to one or two poor model runs which we have been constantly warned will be all over the place for some time.
Posted Today, 00:28
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Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period)
An excellent post to keep in mind before reaching for the razors and prozac folks. Now, much more than usual, there is no point getting so emotional about the vagaries of each run. As for moaning that the we aren't getting any cold, having a look at the 2m temps for London shows well below average temperatures being likely for the entirety of the run with a number of positively Arctic ensemble members by London standards. This would likely mean a below average January CET if continued wouldn't it? Something people would have been desperate for a few years back. Lastly I hope I don't hear that idiotic term 'faux cold' being bandied about because if it is cold on the ground then it IS COLD, we don't live at the 850hpa level last time I checked.
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i think I see where this run is taking us...
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I like to view the GFS Ens whilst wearing a mankini
I like to view them while wearing a raspberry beret, the kind you buy in a second hand store.
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What's ugly about it? A nice little Scandi High forming and an even better Arctic High forming above!
You're right there is nothing ugly about it. Just the same old nonsense that comes up every time cold is progged. A busy few days ahead for the mods methinks.
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ECM will come to the rescue again this evening. No point stressing yet.
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Pattern noticeably further west at 102. Signs that actually the 12z might begin to side with ECM. Should this happen then I smell forum combustion tonight, :-)
Indeed, early indications that the model forum may go nuclear!
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Well a pretty big set of 12zs coming up. I expect the GFS to remain messy for the end of the week but maintains it's consistency with regard to the Greenland area. I would expect the ECM to follow in lowering heights in that region from days 7-10.
Bold claim as usual Ian. Why don't you put some flesh on the bones and provide some evidence for your assertion? In some ways I respect the sheer persistence of your mild bias but without any evidence it is the same old rubbish.
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keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!
It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.
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Extremely tasty options from the models today with a super ECM and an almost as tasty 18z GFS, and almost 2 months of winter left to go. Looking good for cold lovers.
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Everyone should be cautious! The planetary alignment and hadron flux capacitance deriving from the DJU phasing mean this cold spell could be over before it started.
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Sarcasm, LOL
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18z going the way of the ECM. Another good run coming?
In the mangled words of the less informed on this forum I suspect it'll be a 'Stella' run with some fascinating charts in 'F1' LOL
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes that does, on the face of it appear to be the case re: SSWs. However from what I've seen posted the temperature rise is less than one degree C and none of the figures I've seen posted have explained those figures in the context of seasonal influence and broader tropospheric conditions. Furthermore I don't think anything is being 'swept under the carpet' as this isn't some top secret forum with an evil agenda to hide information. There is no conspiracy going on here, perhaps your tinfoil hat is on a little too tight!