TAFKAP
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Posts posted by TAFKAP
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Soon Nick,soon.
NOGAPS va etre remplacé par un nouveau modèle NAVGEM en février. Il faut s'attendre à des ralentissements pour la disponibilité des runs. NOGAPS will be replaced by the new NAVGEM model in February. Some data might be late or not available until the replacement is done.
Will this new NAVGEM be any better, I suppose the only way is up!
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Here you go, peeps...The right place for arguing about Solar flares: http://forum.netweat...20#entry2465226
Thank you Rybris.
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I don't think that you should be so dismissive of flares. There were loads of them in the late 70s and look what we got in 78/79 and 81/82. Bearing in mind that SSW didn't even exist in those days I think it is fair to say that they played a big part in our weather.
Steve Murr is a legend and if he says it's going to be balmy I don'd think we should dismiss him as barmy.
Sorry but are you even reading what I'm saying. The point I am making is that they have no relevance to model discussion or to nwp output.
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This is exactly the sort of reply that stops people commenting on threads like this. Fortunately, I am not like most people, so
I will not be deterred from offering my thoughts!!
Solar flares have nothing to do with the nwp. They should be discussed in another thread and are quite frankly off topic in this particular thread. Put the solar flare stuff somewhere else and feel free to go nuts discussing everything from the impact of solar flares on tropospheric conditions and even the impact of the iluminati and the lizard people who David Icke says rule the world, just not here.
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Hi steve, what are your thoughts on the recent comments with regards to increased solar flares over the next three days?
Do the models take this into account? I have definitely noticed a correlation between sunspot activity and effects on our weather
in terms of increased west to east energy when solar activity increases.
The models do not take solar flares into account and I think any more comments about solar flares should be deleted or moved to a more appropriate thread.
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As Steve said, the usual, all the cold uppers going east:
Slightly further east than the 06z, and looks like the first chance of v.cold we will miss out.
I still find it odd that even experienced members confidently speak of the model output showing conditions 10 days into the future as gospel.
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We may not get the deep cold and copious amounts of snow that most on here want but the increasingly implausible suggestions as to why such cold may not arrive is becoming laughable!
Given that the Northern Hemisphere is currently in winter and bearing in mind the size of the landmass of the UK, I would imagine that the chances of a forecast solar flare causing our tiny island to become / remain mild are miniscule, and that is being generous!
Why would this flare pick on the UK and not the rest of the Northern Hemisphere? Or is it being suggested that this flare will cause the early onset of spring across the entire hemisphere?!
It's all a conspiracy I tell ya...
Eyes down for the 12z...
Exactly, EYES DOWN and enough discussing incredibly unlikely scenarios for a cold spell failing. It could of course go either way but a solar flare will have as much effect as if we all floated up to the stratosphere and farted simultaneously. Back to discussing the nwp for god's sake.
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Well you can say that but many times one was able to look at the models at ranges between T120 and T192 and think 'how can this go wrong ?' And it very often did.
Provide some proof solar flares were to blame for those times.
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BFTP .... The NOAA space weather prediction centre are forecasting a m-class flare over next 3 days , now I stress there may be no correlation to how this all pan out but sure will be interesting to see if there are any interaction at all with solar flares , SSW , other teleco connections and indeed HLB , just preferred there wasn't a flare at this stage !!!
That solar flare has about as much chance of scuppering this cold spell as Westham do of winning the champions league. Why go out of our way to look for obscure and implausible reasons as to why a cold spell which hasn't even arrived could be a no go.
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Here is the further outlook from the models, although the snow will come later, before then it looks colder and anticyclonic from midweek, the snowy synoptics should follow.
Sounds great. A week of sunny and frosty to dry and chill the ground followed by snow then more sunny and frosty. Rinse and repeat!!!
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I for one hope for cold with no snow. A long spell of sunny frosty weather will help dry us out a treat. Just what the doctor ordered!
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Ah, don't start at that. Whatever will happen will happen.
Let the guy enjoy the excitement of record breaking weather!
I'm only saying it because bushfires in Australia are an incredibly destructive and deadly phenomena. If I were living in Australia I'd be praying for rain and cool temperatures.
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The met office text forecast update appears to be on board with an increasing trend towards colder conditions.
I wonder which hymn sheet they are singing from though? -
I know - I'm excited like a child
Tasmanian record is 42.2 in NE Tasmania during the SE Australian heatwave of 2009.
Before that, Hobart held the record of 40.8 in 1976.
Just had to amend my above post about last nights minimum. Whilst it was one of the warmest nights on record here, the 9am to 9am reading was just a bit over 23.
Hobart ABC radio live stream ( Click 936 ):
I shouldn't think it is too exciting for the people whose homes and businesses could burn down or have already done so.
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Great to see excitement mounting once again, that 10 day chart mentioned by mountain shadow is looking very promising indeed. I anticipate that within the next day or so the doom mongers will be out in force again but I am convinced this time the cold is going to be the real deal.
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Yes Gavin, it will, a relive from all this wet weather we have had to endure over the last month !
I hope not! I don't want to 'relive' the damp weather lol
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Takes over a weak after the initial warming.
Takes over a weak what? A weak SSW?
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Happy Christmas to all and lets have a frigid January, February AND March with a surprise snowfall in early April for good measure followed by a searing summer.
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Dumbfounded after the GFS. such a brilliant upgrade. Where to begin?
Merry christmas!
Very big turnaround this morning from the models, jet hundreds of miles further south
Unfortunately, the Russian high retreats and this means it looks like being a fairly brief cold spell, with the potential to deliver a white xmas to some areas.
What is of great interest to me is the big fat arctic high that grows throughout the run. I saw this days ago on the models, and I have been tracking its formation. It is starting to shape up very nicely now. I wager it will setup shop over Greenland just after Christmas.
Here it is on the GFS:
A very interesting feature North east of Alaska.
I think we could easily get a Greenland high from this as shown above.
Right now, focus will of course be on Christmas day. My thoughts remain the same that they have for days, there is definitely potential for cold and snowy weather throughout the UK on xmas day. the most likely area to see snow is North east Scotland.However, Snow could fall anywhere, it is too far out to tell at this stage.
Unfortunately there is little chance of a sustained easterly, as the Russian high is going to retreat. I firmly believe however that a major pattern change is going to occur, with a very significant negative Arctic oscillation.
GFS
UKMO
While the GFS is clearly better for cold in the short term, the UKMO has a more favourable position of the Arctic high. Look in particular over Greenland. A much better height profile, and one Im sure would lead to a very potent northerly soon after.
As much as I would love to see a white Christmas, I would prefer the UKMO to verify. It screams potential in terms of a prolonged cold spell IMO.
A very promising turnaround by the models and plenty of potential for the future too. Some will pooh pooh this output but the models have been flip flopping and floundering so much lately that this outcome is likely as any. Loving the GFS precip type chart for Xmas Day and I suspect a very interesting new year will follow!
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Copy of my post in hunt for cold. Whatever happened to Keep Calm and Carry On?!?!?
Everyone needs to snap out of it. Why oh why is it so hard to remember a few basics before reaching for the razor and baring your wrists.
1) The models do not dictate the weather. The weather at the particular period in time the model data is gathered dictates the models.
2) The models are not better at predicting mild. The UK is more often than not mild so predicting a more likely outcome inevitably leads to a better 'success' rate.
3) FI will ALWAYS be FI until we develop computers that are orders of magnitude more powerful and gather data covering more of the entire atmosphere.
3) (a) Has no body learned anything from the last couple of weeks? Weather can only be predicted accurately a few days ahead, especially in the UK.
On the positive side this is the best time of year for mild. The weather allows people to travel to see loved ones and may prevent the UK slipping into a triple dip recession due to reduced economic output from lost spending over the Christmas period.
Also the 'big' winters of 62/63 and 47 began after Christmas so plenty of time yet. Would everyone please cheer the heck up, stop having such a short memory and think of the bigger picture. Much love.
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Everyone needs to snap out of it. Why oh why is it so hard to remember a few basics before reaching for the razor and baring your wrists.
1) The models do not dictate the weather. The weather at the particular period in time the model data is gathered dictates the models.
2) The models are not better at predicting mild. The UK is more often than not mild so predicting a more likely outcome inevitably leads to a better 'success' rate.
3) FI will ALWAYS be FI until we develop computers that are orders of magnitude more powerful and gather data covering more of the entire atmosphere.
3) (a) Has no body learned anything from the last couple of weeks? Weather can only be predicted accurately a few days ahead, especially in the UK.
On the positive side this is the best time of year for mild. The weather allows people to travel to see loved ones and may prevent the UK slipping into a triple dip recession due to reduced economic output from lost spending over the Christmas period.
Also the 'big' winters of 62/63 and 47 began after Christmas so plenty of time yet. Would everyone please cheer the heck up, stop having such a short memory and think of the bigger picture. Much love.
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Sorry everyone for being a d*ck and letting my irritation with the madness of the models get out of control. Peace and goodwill to all!
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Looks like you were bang out of order with your earlier post jbuffett ..... It's been deleted. I don't think personal jibes are a part of the topic of this thread or anywhere on Netweather?
Oh alright, point taken. I was out of order. Snowy I have PM'd you with an apology.
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err this is the moaning thread, your attitude on here is very rude tbh, Jbuffet
the real passionate weather fanatics get down when good synoptics go wrong, people like you probably aren't into the weather that much so you just accept it and say "ah well never mind" when things downgrade and blindly believe that something good is going to happen further down the line without seeing any evidence bar comments on the strat thread
I'm moaning aren't I? So I'm posting in exactly the right place. Also I think your holier than thou attitude is very rude. I love weather but I'm not so unstable that I throw tantrums and get depressed about it. And you should read the strat thread, maybe you'd gain some actual meteorological knowledge.
There is a snow watch forum, but I won't post it on here!
I know there is but thank you for not encouraging them!
Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Now THAT looks interesting. Going to be fascinating comparing with the existing models when it is available. Pity it wasn't working right now with all the interest from the stratosphere.