3) perhaps most influential, we are likely to see a favourable alignment of a poleward fluxing +AAM signal (westerly winds - substantive increase in relative angular momentum) and MJO entering phase 8, both of which favour high latitude blocking development.
Hi Glacier Point,
I was just wondering why you think that the MJO will emerge in phase 8. Looking at the CPC site the ensemble members look very spread and only indicate a very weak move towards phase 8... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml Do you think that this would be enough to have the correct downstream propogation to cause high lattitude blocking?
Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hi Glacier Point,
I was just wondering why you think that the MJO will emerge in phase 8. Looking at the CPC site the ensemble members look very spread and only indicate a very weak move towards phase 8... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml Do you think that this would be enough to have the correct downstream propogation to cause high lattitude blocking?
Thanks