Mucka
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Posts posted by Mucka
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:
Todays 12z mean anomoly is just a firmed up version of yesterdays ?
Yesterday 7/14 Today 6/13
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It’s not over the pole at any point ? generally svaalbard/barents and then stretches across to central Greenland before returning back to svaalbard/barents. Not great considering what we were looking at a few days ago but could be worse and the mean at day 15 just begins to pick up a sniff of the warming over Asia that has begun to show on ncep
It is getting rally tiresome having you contradict my posts.
Yesterday V today ECM mean.
That is a big difference, hardly a firming up and if you look at the 850 ensembles you will see another obvious difference.
On top of that I was pointing out a massive correction W of ECM which apparently you didn't notice, but hey.
I also correctly stated how the op was out of kilter with the other models and Yesterday's output was best ignored, you didn't.
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13 hours ago, nick sussex said:
Laughable differences in the ECM later output compared to last nights run.
Not just local detail but the entire NH pattern . Just highlights the models poor handling of the upcoming changes .
The whole ensemble suite and mean is night and day compared to last night
Definitely not to be sniffed at as a 10 day mean, last night any Atlantic blocking chances were a write off
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ECM much more inline with UKMO now and has corrected the low W so let's see where it takes it from here.
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So ECM ensembles pretty much with the Op, surprising to me given ECM has the low NE of Scotland at 120 and other models have it NW of Scotland.
That is quite a big difference at 120h on how the Arctic/Scandi ridge backs up the pattern on other output.
Here is ECM 120h mean V GFS and UKMO output
So it will be interesting to see if UKMO and GFS become more progressive tomorrow or of ECM continues to correct the pattern W
My guess would be ECM will correct W and will show an Atlantic ridge day 8 to 10, we will see tomorrow.
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21 minutes ago, Mucka said:
Answer ECM. It isn't stalling the low 120H against the arctic ridge/Scandi heights. It is almost 1,000M held back from yesterday but still pushing through much further E than other models in general.
You can't imagine it is leading the pack if it is correcting 12z run to run so much over 24 hours
It almost certainly will be at odds with its ensembles and most likely for the bin.
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That's some very impressive cold that builds up to our E/NE over the next week if GFS is to be believed and the possibility of us tapping into it 2nd week of Jan certainly exists.
Projected temp for NH, 27 Dec to 3rd Jan.
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Wet and windy is the easy forecast for the foreseeable but that masks a potential change in pattern and background signals that suggest a new regime is possible shortly into the new year.
Short term upgrades are possible to have some wintriness into the mix for the N if low pressure is weaker and further S than currently modelled post 96h although current output seems keen to do the opposite and blow up the next low to keep the wet and windy theme going.
Despite this UKMO still has that low stalling and associated height rises over Scandinavia and GFS although different in some ways also sniffing at the possibility of a Scandi high.
I don't think I would put much weight in that drawing an Easterly for New Year as it is as much a ridge created by Arctic height rises rather than true Scandi high.
However it may well help back up the pattern and create the possibility of a ridge behind forming in the Atlantic once more with the chance of a Northerly flow setting up as we head through the first week of NY.
I think that is our most likely route to any cold and snow chances based on current output although I wouldn't rule out some some positive changes in that regard through days 5-7
Belated merry Christmas everyone, here is to a snowy start to 2024.
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Standing at the station...
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3 hours ago, That ECM said:
How’s the trend going?
Yes indeed, what was a weak but discernible signal a couple of days ago in the ensemble mean is now quite a strong signal for some form pressure rise to our W.
Let's see if we can trend that a little further W and N with a sharper gradient over the next few days.
Meanwhile it is a case of watching how far S we can get post Christmas Atlantic lows to disrupt and how much Arctic air we can get into the mix.
The potential for change is there in the New Year with GFS and ECM throwing up possible mid lat blocking forming, albeit very different scenarios, that in itself may be a sign something is afoot.
Something to watch anyway in the midst of this wet and mild muck.
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UKMO staying with the possibility of some wintriness for Scotland and high ground for England but possibly a little sleet/snow for NE England.
GFS still has the low much further N and the difference with UKMO by 168 is fairly stark.
GEM is closer to the UKMO solution , ICON somewhere in the middle.
GFS Op doesn't offer much hope TBH, relentlessly wet and windy and the only remotely interesting thing on it is the strat warming.
GFS p25 is a very unlikely outlier sending the low into Spain/France, can't see ECM following that unfortunately.
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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Too much focus on Christmas, there’s signs of a potential change to wintry period in Jan….just as we start 1st day of winter. It was either Christmas 85 or 86 where I went for Xmas drink with my dad, brother and best friend and it was 16c and sunny…..historic cold weather followed. Today was 13c….cool in comparison
BFTP
I remember that. I went down to Wales with a friend and our girlfriends at the time and we walked down to the local in T-shirts!
Ahhh, happy days.
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I can't help but feel the usual Southern bias reared its head in here again today which is understandable given the output shows no cold for the S but talk of having to be realistic and how awful the output is etc etc while totally dismissing the possibility of some wintriness in the N is somewhat misleading.
I don't think I have read a single post talking of a looming cold spell, just of the Atlantic train being somewhat derailed in the mid term with a possibility of snow for the N and that is clearly reflected in the output with low pressure stalling in the Atlantic and disrupting.
Just because there isn't a Greenland high and -12 850's flooding into the SE in the reliable now doesn't mean that won't change at some point, but it won't just appear overnight, there will be steps to get there and that is what the chase is all about, looking for how and when that might happen in FI and then following developments from there.
GFS 144
UKMO 144-168
So while it is fair to say the weather will remain unsettled for some time with any cold incursion reserved for the N, it is not typical zonal into FI as we often see.
In fact GFS 12z doesn't manage to push a single low across us and through to the E in 4 days from Atlantic low here to the same Atlantic low over us here with ridge attempt behind.
If we are going to say that is a zonal write off then we may as well give up model watching and posting until the models only show a locked in cold spell because 90% of posts will be cynical told you so posts when we suffer our usual Winter guff instead of the snow most of us want and have little to do with analysing the actual output.
Most of this thread in Winter is about trawling the models and background signals for the possibility of tapping into some cold and yes, a lot of that chasing will end in disappointment but don't let that sour the masochistic fun to be had in chasing it.
The current output is showing a chance of transient snow for the NE, dependent on how far S the low track around day 6 with the possibility of wraparound cold air as it passes through
Thereafter any chance of wintriness will also be transient be reserved for the NW from PM flow as any trough passes through, so if you in the S then I'm afraid patience is the watch word while we look for the next chance of blocking.
That first but unlikely chance will come around New year with Atlantic blocking attempt and that has been the case for some time.
Thereafter we are into deep FI but current ensemble data suggest rising pressure from the W toward the end of the 1st week of Jan but much too far out to make any conclusions other than the Atlantic looks to become less active as we head through the week post New year.
Until then, hang in there, have the best Christmas possible and come back r4freshed for the annual search for cold and snow.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4981529-
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I can't help but feel the usual Southern bias reared its head in here again today which is understandable given the output shows no cold for the S but talk of having to be realistic and how awful the output is etc etc while totally dismissing the possibility of some wintriness in the N is somewhat misleading.
I don't think I have read a single post talking of a looming cold spell, just of the Atlantic train being somewhat derailed in the mid term with a possibility of snow for the N and that is clearly reflected in the output with low pressure stalling in the Atlantic and disrupting.
Just because there isn't a Greenland high and -12 850's flooding into the SE in the reliable now doesn't mean that won't change at some point, but it won't just appear overnight, there will be steps to get there and that is what the chase is all about, looking for how and when that might happen in FI and then following developments from there.
GFS 144
UKMO 144-168
So while it is fair to say the weather will remain unsettled for some time with any cold incursion reserved for the N, it is not typical zonal into FI as we often see.
In fact GFS 12z doesn't manage to push a single low across us and through to the E in 4 days from Atlantic low here to the same Atlantic low over us here with ridge attempt behind.
If we are going to say that is a zonal write off then we may as well give up model watching and posting until the models only show a locked in cold spell because 90% of posts will be cynical told you so posts when we suffer our usual Winter guff instead of the snow most of us want and have little to do with analysing the actual output.
Most of this thread in Winter is about trawling the models and background signals for the possibility of tapping into some cold and yes, a lot of that chasing will end in disappointment but don't let that sour the masochistic fun to be had in chasing it.
The current output is showing a chance of transient snow for the NE, dependent on how far S the low track around day 6 with the possibility of wraparound cold air as it passes through
Thereafter any chance of wintriness will also be transient be reserved for the NW from PM flow as any trough passes through, so if you in the S then I'm afraid patience is the watch word while we look for the next chance of blocking.
That first but unlikely chance will come around New year with Atlantic blocking attempt and that has been the case for some time.
Thereafter we are into deep FI but current ensemble data suggest rising pressure from the W toward the end of the 1st week of Jan but much too far out to make any conclusions other than the Atlantic looks to become less active as we head through the week post New year.
Until then, hang in there, have the best Christmas possible and come back r4freshed for the annual search for cold and snow.
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Icon, GEM and UKMO all have the Atlantic train derailed to some degree by 144, GFS playing catch up so best not taken too seriously for now.
GEM, ICON, UKMO 168
GFS 168
The UKMO chart wouldn't need massive modification for a snow event as the air to the NE the low would draw in is cold so it will be interesting to see how far S ECM can get cold air and what any mid lat blocking looks like.
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I think the latest ECM reiterates how unfortunate we were this year.
Had the pattern been Just five hundred miles S it would have been a wintry period for some
Still, those final frames are certainly interesting, especially for N Britain.
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24 minutes ago, KTtom said:
When i look at charts like this UKMO 168 i see little sign of a majour pattern change anytime soon.. which is the Mets take till mid Jan at earliest. As someone said yesterday, the overpowering teleconnection we have is Climate change .
It will be mild because of climate change until, and if, we get a cold spell.
Despite the obvious differences I think this is the first time the big 3 have agreed on the relative trough position for Xmas eve.
Not great, it is coming down to a matter faith for Xmas cold now,
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Consensus seems to be forming around the trough passing to our N on Christmas even bringing in W/NW winds and highly moderated polar air pushing in on Christmas morning
Could be some snow for high ground in the N Christmas morning and possibly wintry showers to lower levels in the N Christmas evening.
At either end of the spectrum;
The colder runs are likely drier with the trough pulling away and bringing a brief Northerly but with any showers more likely wintry
While the milder runs naturally don't bring the tough far enough S
If only P22 wasn't an outlier...
A post Christmas ridge attempt just to our W is being modelled just enough to warrant a little interest.
Let's see if ECM Op sticks with it this morning or erases it.
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It would need to be high ground and far N as tings stand
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:I know we won't see anything down here but id still be happy for more of the country further north to see a white Christmsas should it happen
It would need to be high ground and far N on this run, although perhaps wintry showers getting to lower levels in the NW in the evening.
If we could just get the trough to dig further S and W...
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GFS 00z going for a very stormy Xmas morning
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On 10/12/2023 at 17:40, Mucka said:Big Picture and why cold spell/snap is probable in the run up to Christmas.
Don't worry about FI charts or how flat the longwave is at 168, it is about the forcing of the Euro trough and upstream amplification post 168 as we know we will have a UK high with the jet forced over the top out to then,
The Euro trough will be a big player and comes prior to any retrogression and Atlantic blocking.
GFS has been modelling it to push W and then NW phasing with the Atlantic trough or weakening heights to our W and causing toppler flatter scenarios until this afternoon.
Here is GFS 00z handling of the trough, the purple arrows and lines show movement and forcing pattern through the important period 15th to 18th Dec.
And below is the 12z over the same period for comparison.
And here is UKMO for Dec 17th, note the Euro trough.
So long as the Euro trough does not move NW and phase with the upper trough and prevent retrogression of the high we have a good chance because the other alternatives should all lead to at least a cold snap.
The rest is down to getting a nice clean transition of the Arctic trough W to E and hoping we don't get any spoilers preventing ridging into Greenland,
Even if it phases early as with previous runs and GEM we still have a shot, albeit a delayed one with more potential hurdles and I would say this mornings ECM run was dubious at best.
So personally I would favour cold with the caveat that FI longwave patterns even when favourable aren't always a perfect guide to what weather our small Island will receive.
And so it came to pass
that Christmas was alas
not white as I'd forecast.
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10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Anyone able to interpret this better? My understanding is that it's showing a clear trend to +NAO Jan to March periods and might explain why there were so many epic 1960s winters. And why siwinters such as 1989-90 and 90s winters and recent ones have been so poor. Is it the Hadley Cell expansion causing more +NAO winters/March's also?
The NAO is a measure of the atmospheric state not a driver of it, so the question would rather be are there more positive NAO Winters now and then, if so, why.
It is an interesting graph but there isn't nearly enough data to make any conclusions IMO.
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"One of these things just doesn't belong here, one of these things just isn't the same. Can you guess which one it is?"
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Cambrian
Removal of personal comments
Oh, and by the way, here is the specifics of the short range differences on ECM ensembles I was outlining
Yesterday V today for Jan 1st