[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013]

in which case, its quite odd that it suddenly begins to show output, run after run, which develops a strong -AO signature

thanks for that info recretos. oh, and welcome scellus. pardon my rudeness.

No problem. Yes I'm an amateur in this stuff and in other kind of meteorology, but see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/meetings/2012/CFSv2/Perlwitz.pdf slide 14 or so, and the conclusions at the end.

GFS ensemble is still quite +AOish, but mybe it doesn't reach far enough.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013]

i know CFS runs are not bias corrected but they are worth looking through now that the model has grasped the SSW. the variation in trop response times varies from mid jan to early feb.

I read somewhere that the stratosphere-troposphere coupling is poor even in CFS v2. It might not have good idea of what happens after the SSW, then.

(Greetings from Finland, by the way. )