Tamara
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Posts posted by Tamara
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Woot I'm just in th orange area. I wouldn't be surprised if it were to be made lager and have a red warning possible
An orange/red warning for lager? All kinds of things fall out of the sky I suppose
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I think it will stay the same
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I see this event going 1 of 2 ways. firstly we either get the heavy snow we were promised or secondly the front is further west, meaning that when it sinks south of us it will pull in very strong E-NE'yls bringing in streamers right across the county.
On a side note, not much has been talked about the wind, we are forecast 30-38mph gusts along south east coast. This is not something we are used to under the influence of cold, I think when the freezing weather is biting against us in the wind it is going to feel unusally cold.
Temperatures as per the NAE( f.e) are predicted to be freezing or below with sub zero dewpoints - add in that wind (and hopefully some snow) and it looks wintry for sure
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Feb last year only gave a dusting for the coast, before rain moved in.
Well, at least east of Brighton there was snow. About 10cms here with no rain. Anyway, the principle is the same but with the colder air a bit further west than then, so that should make a difference to then.
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If the ECM verified I'm not sure that we would need the coldest uppers for snow. We are on the polar side of the jetstream with a continued feed of easterly winds from the continent providing a lot of low level cold. Some of the snowfalls back in 1947 and 62/63 were carbon copies of what we are currently seeing predicted
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Yeah but most of the heavy snow will have fallen by then...it's always the same along the South Coast of England, it could be snowing on Mercury, indeed it could be snowing in the inner core of the sun...and it would still rain here :-(...I'm still hopeful, but I'm not getting my hopes up...if needs be I'll get some warm clothes on and talk a trundle up onto the South Downs !
I was rather sceptical up till this evening, but the current charts are excellent for anyone near the south coast as well. The low undercuts and pulls low temperatures and dewpoints off the continent. If you look at the latest NAE you will see that it actually gets colder through Friday morning and dewpoints are well below zero. That means snow
In a sense it is starting to look not too different to the Feb snowfall of last year
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They think it won't be cold enough for the second slide to stay as snow, or even start as snow, lets hope they are wrong, we will have cold temps due to landed snow by then, should help a bit anyway.
Based on the latest data just in that looks unlikely - its been a great evening so far
*She touches wood it continues* -
Dewpoints by Friday morning are suggested to be well below freezing everywhere on that southerly feed of air from a frozen France. This goes round more to the south east and even east as the low to the west slips to the south of us through Saturday, so it looks as though on that basis there would be no marginality anywhere in the region during the whole period. Its only by Sunday with the following low that question marks appear more. However, with still two days to go, it is best to remain cautious about the whole thing
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Current Friday 12:00 Fax:
Previous Friday 12:00 Fax:
That is a good measure of how things have changed over the last 24 hrs and to balance how things may also look tomorrow
Hopefully the pendulum swings the other way. Its actually the t96 fax chart that illustrates better what I mean -
I wonder if someone could clarify the terminology for the Kent snow events? In Jan 2010, there was a streamer which was caused by convection off the North Sea and made land at Faversham or so, heading SW (and crossing over me!) before exiting into the channel between Hastings and Eastbourne. We got loads of snow off it as it lasted for 12 hours or so...is this the Slapper?
I've no idea what it is (was) called
but yes there was such a streamer that gave a good 12hrs of almost non stop snow showers. It produced about 15cms of snow . It is something like that which is much better and much less marginal than most atlantic lows. -
What doesn't add up with Peters forecast was yes he initially said snow to rain but he ended on mentioning the snow on friday nite is "the start of it for the weekend" sounds a bit confusing
I didn't see the forecast (and wouldn't anyway as I am not in the London region) but it looks very complex for the weekend with a series of lows heading in and trying to undercut the cold air as they head south-eastwards. The problem for the southern most counties is that if the lows don't track far enough south of us then the cold air gets lifted out quickly as the wind changes away from the cold continent and dewpoints and temperatures rise...much as they did yesterday when we were too close to the moist atlantic air then
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Snow to rain event fri & sat watch this space - Peter Cockroft bbc London news. Shame really would have liked a snow event sticking around for a few days following.
Yes, so would I - would make a fun weekend
. That suggestion atm looks about right from what the latest charts show and not as promising as perhaps as looked before. Pity the much more widespread snow shower potential also disappeared during the middle of this week.However, being more positive, it is still early yet
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More interesting stratospheric charts today.
So any breakthrough is likely to be either temporary, non existant, or limited to the very south followed by a blocked Atlantic.
This is then going to allow one mighty cold blast from the NE get jolly close to the UK!!!!!
Thanks for that - it provides good reason to increase hopes that the fuel supply coming out of Canada will be switched off, as the longer that the remaining Canadian segment of vortex lasts, then the greater chance that the jet stream would be lifted north as lows follow one after another across the atlantic. A little patience required to see this process reduce
It strikes me that the ECM 32 day outlook hasn't picked up on any of these latest stratospheric signals yet and hence sees the continued cyclogenesis as I described and explains the rather more average end to January it suggests
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Fax chart at 120 hrs keeps things very cold.
To my little eye, taken at face value and always subject to future change of course, that looks like it might go on to even better things than the raw UKMO output did at t144
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So I'm guessing all the heavy snow showers 'pushing well inland' for Tuesday and Wednsday across the SE region - as described on yesterday's BBC Countryfile forecast - have been cancelled ? If that's the case, it's a pretty poor showing from the BBC forecasters. Not much point doing a weekly forecast if they can't get day two right
The computer models were suggesting a definitive NE'erly airstream across the North Sea up till yesterday evening - which was conduicive to those snow showers. It was only then, but more especially this morning when that was 'downgraded' into a drier and more stable easterly airstream, The BBC , as advised by METO, only produce forecasts that reflect the data, and if the data changes, then they adjust their forecasts accordingly in these tricky synoptics - they don't make forecasts with the aim of pleasing pundits on a message board
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RAIN NOW HERE IN HASTINGS ! BOO
As considered, this gives us in the local area a chance tonight where we miss out today
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Its just turned from snow to sleet here in Headington, Just East of Oxford, i'm at 115m ASL.
Bearing in mind you have some altitude, I think that is as a good an indicator as any that realistically this was always going to give many places in the region at least a spell of rain today. The period of possible interest I think is what happens from this evening and overnight as colder drier air starts to arrive back once more.
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A light dusting this morning which is still there and is as much as could have been expected in this situation
. However probably not long before temperatures rise. Best hope for something later tonight as it gets colder again, otherwise its a wait till late in the week to see what happens then as the snow shower possibilities for the middle of the week look less promising than they did. -
Snowing here in Folkestone - its light but there some alright flakes!!! That'll do me now - considering last year we had four inches and that was low down!!
It look like predictions are right and you are in the right place for a covering tonight - enjoy it as a prelude to Tuesday and thereafter
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I hope it does stall and / or produce a wrap around. I'm just going by the latest model guidance
It's a bit early (and very chilly!) for wrap arounds, that is for the summer
Looks as though the streamer has arrived where it was predicted in eastern parts of Kent -
I would guess that cloud tops are cooling nocturnally - that usually helps with overnight convectivity
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Uff - that is probably going to pass only about 10 miles or so to my east looking at the expected track
Whole week to go anyway - good luck Folkestone and adjacent towns, looks like you may well have a covering from that
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Maybe we should have a new thread i.e eastern and south eastern coastal line and not London & South east especially in these types of set up's..
At this moment in time Tuesday onward does not look that conducive for snow showers or streamers except for the coastal fringes of the se spreading into some parts of Kent.
I just cannot see beefy snow showers making it across parts of London & spreading further west unless a thames streamer sets up but we are talking 48 hrs here which is miles away from finding out.
Poor Poor Poor sums it up for me for areas London and west i'm afraid at this point...
Cheer up
- there are (at least) several days of cold weather ahead and it is only tomorrow that is marginal. Atm, the snow showers expected from Tuesday onwards are hard to predict where and when - but any that come along will be in freezing conditions. I'm expecting nothing at all tomorrow, it is not of interest at all tbh other than obviously watching for who does get snow, but from then on with the cold air in place and easterly winds setting in then there are plenty of possibilities for all of us -
I expect you are all hoping for the UKMO to be right late this week - those sort of set-ups always bring the best for your region. Good luck all anyway!
*She touches wood it continues*
but yes there was such a streamer that gave a good 12hrs of almost non stop snow showers. It produced about 15cms of snow
. It is something like that which is much better and much less marginal than most atlantic lows.
London & South East Regional Discussion 17th January 2013 22:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Tamara Road
A strengthening breeze noticeably picking up from the channel over the last hour or so and as I put some recyling things into the bin just now, the water on the surface of the lid was frozen solid and the water butt that had been in the full sun today was refreezing. Its going to get ever colder from here on in before the snow arrives and I think that the coldness is upgrading right before this event. Its just like the classic snowfalls of the 60's, 70's and 80's where the cold always intensified leading up to the first flakes...
