markok
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Everything posted by markok
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my take is colder uppers to continue pushing west earlier than expected. can see us getting plastered tomorrow
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weather warning from met eireann Weather Warning Issued at 17 January 2013 - 11:06 Weather Advisory Very heavy rain will spread into parts of Munster and Connacht on Thursday and will spread eastwards during the afternoon and evening. There will be some heavy falls with a risk of localised flooding in parts of Munster and Leinster. The rain will be accompanied by strong to near gale force and gusty southeasterly winds. There is a risk that the rain will turn to sleet and snow later on Thursday night and towards dawn. Parts of north Leinster and Ulster will be most at risk, with further snowfall during Friday with accumulations mostly on higher ground. Staying very cold on Saturday for much of the country with a further threat of wintry showers. Very cold, frosty and icy at times Valid from: 11:00 17th Jan 2013 Valid to: 20:00 19th Jan 2013 Gale Warning Southeasterly gales will develop this afternoon on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea. Issued at 05:00 on 17-Jan-2013 Small Craft Warning Southeasterly winds will increase to force 6 or higher on all coastal waters this morning. Issued at 05:00 on 17-Jan-2013
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another westward shift on the runs today and we'll be in business . there was a good post from someone on the mod thread yesterday morning telling people in central and eastern england not to be getting excited yet because he reckoned the front would keep shifting westwards. he said everyone was underestimating the block. he could be proved right. north and eastern Ireland could now get the best snow after all.
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gfs brill. snow for us dubs if it came off. can't believe met eireann haven't even mentioned the possibility of snow even if it's unlikely. there at zero. bet ya the met eireann website updates again later
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That's all well and good but why do they change their forecasts about 2 or 3 times a day. there grand for short range forecasting, lets say within a day but i find their outlooks change too much too be taking seriously.
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i recking fridays event will upgrade again in our favour. we could do well out of it. marginal to say the least. never listen to met eireann. there as clueless about the weather as we were about tesco burgers
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i knew met eireann would change it again. i wouldn't even bother looking at their website for info guys. stick to the 3 main models for info and watch out for ian ferguson's updates on the mod thread.
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lads i wouldn't read too much into what met eireann say. they always change their forecasts everyday. one day it'll be rain, next sunny, next snow. they try cover everything! i'll await the next GFS and ECM run and we'll deffo have greater knowledge then what's gonna happen. Netweather have 68% snowfall risk for Dublin up at the moment for saturday. Dunno who updates that met eireann website but whoever they are, are at nuttin.
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the gfs has increased our chances for the weekend for snow .. lets hope ECM keeps up the cold trend
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that's great if your in the north or east.. hopefully the snow risk grows during the week for everywhere
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trends for cold to be pushed further west are continuing with each run so wouldn't be surprised if there was a nice snowfest for midweek and the weekend. east coast most at risk though i'd say.
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if there's an easterly wind blowing, east coast will get snow showers. northerly wind, north and west will do well. hard to know what's gonna happen but great upgrade. least we know the gfs is trending towards colder every run so lets hope next run is even better. still time for monday to be upgraded
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cheers stormforce, nice imput there. i'd say the models will change further still so hopefully we can get that cold to shift west.
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I think we can safely say that the dublin and wicklow mountains are gonna get a hiding of snow. hopefully low levels will get some too but it's too hard to say at the minute. I'm in Dublin south west.
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wow what a run. both gfs and ecm in agreement now tonight at last. well done ecm on showing the way. snowfest on the way now hopefully. met eireann will have to give out warnings 2moro evening if the models stick to their guns on the runs 2moro ..exciting times ahead
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if the 9.30pm Gfs run upgrades everyone will be able to have a nice sleep tonight ... lots of great potential ahead. thank god for the ECM last 2 days!
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wow what an ECM. If this came off the East Coast would have lots of snow to look forward too, in a reasonable time frame too. I think the GFS will trend towards the ECM on the pub run later and game on . I'm sticking with the ECM. I'd say Met Eireann will keep their mouths shut until tomorrow evening when we'll have a great idea what's gonna unfold. Exciting model viewing.
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better GFS run there. hopefully ECM will slightly upgrade it's cold for us this evening then be looking good again
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this is what met eireann are saying currently. very positive. Frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear on Friday morning and some patches of frost and fog may persist well into the afternoon. Otherwise, the day will begin dry, with sunny spells developing in many areas. However, during the afternoon and evening, cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain will develop in south and west Munster, and a few showers may appear along eastern coasts also. Moderate to fresh, southeasterly winds will develop gradually and it will remain cold. Outbreaks of rain will continue in the south overnight and the possibility of showers will persist near the east coast also. Winds will become easterly, moderate to fresh, but breaks in cloud will allow frost to occur away from southern and eastern areas, with ice problems for some places. Outbreaks of rain in the south and isolated showers in the east will tend to die out on Saturday and sunny intervals will develop. Winds will be moderate, locally fresh, east to northeast, making it feel rather cold. During Saturday night, most parts of the country will be dry with clear spells, although showers may appear again near eastern coasts and also in the northwest and west. Winds will become light, northerly with severe frost and ice occurring widely. Sunday will start mainly dry and bright with frost and ice clearing slowly but temperatures will struggle to rise significantly. Winds will back northwesterly, light to moderate during the day. During the evening, outbreaks of rain will turn persistent in the northwest and west, then becoming more widespread across the country as the night goes on. As the rain comes further east, it will be likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.
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i'm gonna opt against the GFS run for milder. the jet is meant to track south and with the SSW event coming into play soon I can't see how the atlantic is gonna be the main player for all of next week. It's being using up all it's energy on us the last 3 weeks . All the other models go for cold and the latest met eireann and uk met office update is very encouraging for cold lovers.
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keep calm. lets see were the ECM goes. for me it's the main model. if that starts trending towards milder i'll start to worry but till then keep calm
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thanks for the welcoming guys. lets hope we will be welcoming the snow very soon next!
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thanks Pomeroysnow. great to be here.
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haha cork and kerry generally miss out on the snow events! rain events a different story
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east coast and parts of the midlands would see snow if this easterly came off. great model viewing especially for us dubs this evening. wonder what met eireann will say about this later or in the morning?