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alan776600

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Posts posted by alan776600

    Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    (thanks Paul T)

    its not 100% nailed, but if anything I would expect a couple more small corrective incriments WEST tomorrow-

    The reason its so important is the upper air cold pool at 850 MB I keep going on about it - but in this scenario its around 200 miles diameter- but at the core will be -15c uppers-

    http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-114.png?18 just to the east of the UK-

    The upper air cold pool very rarely reaches the UK- it usually pulls up short- heres a couple of exceptions

    http://modeles.meteo...991-2-7-0-0.png

    http://modeles.meteo...009-2-2-0-0.png

    http://modeles.meteo...87-1-12-0-0.png

    http://modeles.meteo...956-2-1-0-0.png

    When this area stalls out & remains in situ the isobars relax & thats a grenade for low temps-

    a classic low temp chart for the UK-

    http://modeles.meteo...em-0-132.png?12

    Fingers crossed ^^^^

    S

    Will be amazing if that comes off and thank you Steve :)

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Excuse me, I thought that the vast majority of the models were showing cold and blocked next week, but judging by some of the posts on here, the GFS is already right and we might as well write off next week!

    Some on here are just on wind ups I'm certain, which are far more annoying to us less knowledgable members than emotional one liners.

    Gotta agree with you there chalk, Its like watching babies throw there rattles out there crib with some, With so many models pointing in the direction of cold im sure one has to go astray, its almost like everything has to be perfect lol

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Alan,

    I think the answer lays within the micro and macro. On a macro level, it's entirely possible to gather from the models the atmospheric conditions, which would be conducive to snow (850s, wind direction, dew points, and so on...) So, on a broad scale, it's possible to state from a longer range than 24hrs that the conditions are favourable to snow.

    However, on the micro level, it's a lot more difficult and this is where specifics - which often people request - are best left until the 24-36hr window, when such events are better scoped within the mesoscale models (NAE, UKV, etc...)

    What is important to remember - in both instances - is that, unfortunately, nothing is guaranteed. Often there can be, for instance, 'mixing' which occurs that can disrupt/spoil even what looks like the most obvious snow event.

    Thanks Snowballz, I love watching this forum although alot does confuse me and go over my head, but I can pick up the basics so a bit dumb in some respects to the people who have studied it for years. Im hoping on the short term we do get the snow as like all you coldies, im a big fan as the next person in here . Im guessing over the next few years I will learn more so im then more able to put posts on lol

    Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If that is a 1991 forecast (I'm on my mobile so can't watch it now) then no chance. That was a once in a lifetime easterly. Next week I'd expect highs of +2c by the end of the week and a few snow showers with modest accumulations in favoured spots. I certainly wouldn't expect snowy Armageddon!

    Put it this way - I can't see anything as severe and snowy as Dec 2010 (or Jan 2010 when I got 25cm+ of snow here in Hampshire).

    Yateley had amazing snow 2010 :)
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