[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 syed2878 just to clear up a little misconception. It has not been a snowy winter for large parts of Scotland.

I live on a hill at 200m a.s.l just South of the Central belt of Scotland and have seen very little lying snow all winter. Certainly not enough to build a snowman. I have seen very little frost either.

The 'you lot'  that you refer to relates to the North of Scotland primarily, Aberdeenshire, Highland and the Northern Isles doing reasonably well this year 

Geographically this represents possibly about half of the land mass of Scotland but in terms of population a significant minority.

I suspect that Kirkcaldy Weather has seen very little snow himself this winter. 

Keep up the good work KW. Much appreciated.

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

I was just looking at the warning matrix on the met office amber warning. It is at it's highest level ( far right) in terms of impact. It is only likelihood that stops it from going red ( vertical axis).. As the track of the storm becomes more certain I would expect that some areas will go red. Sorry , don't know how to post the image.

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

1 hour ago, Ross B said:

 

That would do!

 

15Z UKV is a bit too far south for my liking at the same time, but does have a second chance later in the day. (charts the wrong way round below)

The Met Office rainfall radar this afternoon was showing the heaviest band of precipitation for tomorrow coming through the Central Belt.

This evening it is all further South with Dumfries possibly being the sweet spot. I guess it updates on the basis of UKV so it would tie in with what you have posted above.

 

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

54 minutes ago, aggy said:

How come in Scotland showers tend not to penetrate to far inland from a northern direction but on mainland Europe they appear to go 100s miles in land 

 

is it down to the highlands ?

I think it is because of the mountains. Not expecting anything in South Lanarkshire for the next few days. Tuesday looks the best option as the front moves in from the West.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

We're now very close to a technical major SSW at 60N, 10hPa with warming now being recorded at this level. Zonal winds are expected to reverse either later today or tomorrow marking an official major SSW. 

 

Houston we have lift off. If next weeks mid atlantic ridge is being modelled purely on mjo/ trop led factors then I wonder if the models may start to adjust as live data from the SSW starts to feed into starting conditions?

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

49 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just a very brief post from me, Ill try and add the two models, but unable to sit at pc for long, serious bac k issues and b----y BT keep dropping my link, sadly my web provider is unable to stop them, anywayy

Ec shows trough 24 and 25 with -5 scottish borders 25/26 with 536 dm bity furter north; then 27 th with -5 central Scotland and 536 n of sottish mainland and its flow n of west. Noaa 6-10 shows flow s of west but with same conour height.

So not a mild outlook, maybe even rather cold in much of Scotland, any ppn snow over mountains and some hills but ppn rain for rest apart from highest n’ern mountains, in any ppn. No serious wind hazards unless prob far nw.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

A johnholmes post at Christmas regarding the snow is like sitting down with an old friend in front of the fire with a whiskey, anticipating the arrival of a snow storm. Love these posts.

Regarding the North/ South cold boundary, I live just to the South of the central belt in Southern Scotland at an altitude of 200m. It is one of the most marginal places in Scotland for snow. Yesterday was a sleety  mess despite almost a week of ice days before yesterday's front moved in.

I have some sympathy with the M4 analogy down South because much of the snow action in Scotland takes place just North of here at an altitude of 200m+. Yesterday was a perfect example 

The 00z 850's ensemble average temp is currently showing -6 C for my location on the big day. Again the most marginal of situations.

My preference would always be that the battleground line moves South not only because it makes my own situation less marginal but also because to my mind, the more the merrier. Could there be anything better than us all sitting round the old Netweather fire anticipating the great snow storm of Christmas 2022? 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Looking at the latest ECM dets...probably as close as we'll get to an easterly all Winter, LP's relentless to the west and north west of the UK (as always).

I don't have the expertise of some on here so this is a question rather than any statement based on knowledge but is there any similarly pattern wise with this November and November 2009?

I ask this because my memories of that November are similar to this with mild winds and rain throughout before temps dropped towards the end of the month.

As a small coincidence the Jaxa Artic Sea Ice gain tables currently show that  the gain of this year matches that of 2009 ( and 2010). Can that in itself suggest that Northern hemisphere weather patterns now may be similar throughout this Autumn to then?

Probably just wishful thinking but maybe a small straw to clutch?

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

1 hour ago, Scandinavian High. said:

We don’t hit jackpot but trends looking good high to push north east.

Insider knowledge SH!!? ☺

More patience required I feel but ultimately that seems like a reasonable direction of travel. 

JH posting a page or so back of little change in the upper air pattern in the next 8-10 days. This is as good a sign as we will get of Little change short term. BFTP and others have suggested late Jan as the time of interest for some time now. That seems reasonable.

The Beast from the East ran 24Feb- 4 Mar 2018 (roughly)). We have 5 weeks till that time frame so plenty of time. 

Southern Scotland is grey and dry at the moment (with occasional drizzle) and has been for a few days so enjoy the blue skies and frost down south. It will prepare the ground nicely for a blanket of snow in the coming weeks. 

Stay positive.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

West is Best taking a battering for his comments on the - 5 850's but I don't think his comment was unreasonable. 

-5C is not needed in all situations as the last few days have shown but it is an excellent benchmark. 

I happen to live in what I would imagine is one of the most marginal locations in the UK for snowfall. I live on the edge of the Southern Uplands (Leadhills is 15 miles up the road) in Scotland at an altitude of 192m.

Many is the time that I can look out of my window to see the snow settle at the magic 200m line whilst there is sleet or rain on my doorstep. This is very often with 850's of - 5 so I always look to < - 5C to get settling below 200m.

John Holmes excellent snow forecasting guide (I think he posted it a few days back/ well worth a read) shows how complicated the forecasting of snowfall is. 

So as a very very rough start point - 5 850's (or lower) is a good place to start so WIB's comment seemed reasonable to me.  

 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

17 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Hello all, back for the winter chase and we’ve got some interesting synoptics, very different to the last few years. From experience these patterns shift East closer to the actual date. This is what I’m looking for and would put the UK under a direct notherly/colder flow. 

How much of a correction do we need? 100-200 miles possibly?

If so how likely is that kind of correction at this timescale?

 

[Songs that remind you of late summer, moving into autumn?]

Two songs by The Doors with direct reference to the summers end

1.Summers almost gone 

2. Indian Summer

'morning found us calmly unaware

Mildew gold ran through our hair

At night we swim the laughing sea

When summers gone

Where will we be' 

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

surely it’s not beyond the two organisations wit to use a list of names which both populations can spell! 

By both populations do you mean Ireland and England? What about those lovely Welsh and Scottish names? Some of those names can be crackers to spell. 

I think you are doing your fellow countrymen a disservice to suggest that they can't get their head around Ciara. It is fairly easy to spell if you want it to be. 

[Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020]

20 minutes ago, jason6347 said:

Hi I’ve got a few days off so I’m heading up to Scotland in the search for some white stuff,not sure where best to head,fort William,was thinking with it being more in the west,is it high up there.or was looking at Aviemore,will that still get the showers from the west as it is a bit further east..Any recommendations would be appreciated 

                                          Cheers jason

Hi Jason

Fort William itself  is fairly low lying and rarely gets snow in my experience. Obviously Ben Nevis is there but I don't think you want to be going up there over the next few days. Aviemore and the Cairngorms national park is a better bet generally. The A9 has high points on the road up so you have to be careful with snow gates being closed etc.

I am speaking in general terms. I have not seen the specifics of forecasts in these areas over the next few days.

Hope this helps. Enjoy your trip to Scotland.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

39 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you are on here to learn and are hunting snow/cold (sad to see that thread go....) then here's a bit of learning for you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watch and enjoy the ride.

 

Have deleted most of the text from Catacols post to save space but this in one fantastic post. Easy to understand, very educational and well written. What makes it perfect is that this could actually happen in the next few weeks. Thanks Catacol.

This is not to forget about some of the fantastic contributions from others in recent days. Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Bluearmy, John Holmes etc (and my personal favourite Tight Isobar). I have been a reader of this forum since 2009 and when an upcoming cold spell looks likely to verify there is no better place to be. I remember being on the Weather Outlook before the cold spell of 2010 and a poster called Retron posted an emsemble watch each day that counted down to the cold spell. Steve Murr contributed then too. These contributions live in the memory as much as the cold spells themselves

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 ............ that’s why your reading this now ................

How do .you know I am reading this now? Very impressive. Who needs computer models when you have these powers......

Seriously though, the point you make about us being geographically on the borderline between the mobile Atlantic and the near continent is what makes it so precarious every time. Much like waiting for the outcome of our political future, you have to be very, very patient to be a cold weather fan in the UK.

You are absolutely correct. We keep coming back for more.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

46 minutes ago, Starsail said:

Very light snow started to fall in Lanark. We are on the Northern boundary of the Met office amber warning so a good fall here may give hope to those in the Central belt.

Snowing heavily now and settling on the road.  Good luck everyone for the night ahead.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards]

Very light snow started to fall in Lanark. We are on the Northern boundary of the Met office amber warning so a good fall here may give hope to those in the Central belt.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

2 minutes ago, biggreyface said:

Does anyone have snow yet 

Snowing here just now. First proper shower of the day/ eve. The ground is very wet so it is not sticking yet. Hopefully a further drop in temperature will allow the snow to settle.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

12 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

That's a great shout. Put it in there with a post full of happy emoticons and how brilliant the charts are, and how well they modelled this.

Now, now!!!  Let's not be too confident. It hasn't happened yet, exciting as those charts are to look at. A Scotland wide snow event would be great, a UK wide snow event would be even better.The more the merrier I say.

The Glasgow, Clyde valley will be less likely to get snow because of altitude as much as anything.  I think that is covered by the Met Office 2-7 cm guidance. 

The lack of Amber warnings baffles me a bit but I suppose that the answer to that is in the word showers (rather than persistent snow).

You can sense the excitement this eve. It's like waiting for Elvis to enter the building. Let's hope every single one of us has a positive snow story to tell in the next 24-48 hours.

[Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

A very interesting week ahead. It seems strange to me that when we get PM sourced air from the North West in the middle of January in Scotland, that altitude still has to play a factor. Yet it does seem to still be a factor for Tuesday. 850 HPa temps at -7 or below, dry bulb/ wet bulb temps, dew-points etc all on the cold side of favourable (based on my very limited knowledge of the subject) and yet for low lying areas of the central belt sleet is still showing on Met Office/ BBC graphics for Tuesday.

I live in Lanark at approximately 190 m asl so should see snow falling. I work in Motherwell however and I am not so confident that I will see snow down there. If this set up does not bring snow to these areas you have to wonder what will. Time for change however so hopefully the situation will become less marginal as T0 arrives. My guess at this moment is that anyone above 100m will see snow. Let's hope that I am being pessimistic and that we all get some of the white stuff.

 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

What should we be cheering for? PM air from the North West moving South East or the High pressure to the East progressing west bringing colder uppers from the continent? 

I suspect that the answer to this question is dependent on geographical location. North Western areas will cheer the former, South Eastern areas the latter. Would this be a reasonable assumption or is this too simplistic?

Part of me would like to see SM and others be right because it would prove to be a great call when all seemed lost for the block. I suspect however that living in Scotland, to cheer that horse would be akin to shooting myself in the foot.  Can one scenario support the other so that we get the best of both worlds and everybody is happy?

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

5 minutes ago, snowwman said:

Sub zero.

 

19 minutes ago, snowwman said:

I'd like to re run my analysis, but I concluded the last time that a split strat is positively harmful for our chances of cold.

With the focus that many people put on the stratospheric temperature, split pv's and ssw's it would seem almost incredible that your findings, if true, have been overlooked. I think people can agree that LRF's and global drivers are rightly under scrutiny just now. Lorenzo made a very honest, heart felt post a few days back where his exasperation was almost palpable. The conclusion may be that the forecast regarding blocking is actually not far off the mark but in terms of conditions on the ground on our small island, it would be hard to make a case for a front loaded winter (yet).

I have followed with real interest developments from early November.The front loaded winter, due to start early December initially, then mid December, now last third of December looks like it may not happen at all. Is it possible that in all the complexities, there could be something very simple, that is overlooked. I suspect the answer is no, but your post Snowman gives food for thought.

 I used a very crude measure to evaluate the progress of such a forecast. From early December, I looked at the T850 GEFS ensemble mean for 15th December on the 00z, for my area and it oscillated +/- 2 C around the 0 C line but at no point was there any suggestion of something in the offing.regarding cold. The shorter range models simply did not buy it.

 

 

 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

The last few pages of this thread is what makes this forum so amazing. The big hitters, Tamara, GP, Steve murr and a few others rolling their sleeves up and debating to such a high level with their considerable intellect and expertise.

We can't guarantee the snow but  sit down with a cup of coffee and you can guarantee a first class read.