Weather-history

I am not that optimistic now there will that much in the way of wintry weather for the rest of the year now. Christmas weather is still up in the air but whilst focus is on this, what is occurring after this, it is conspicuous that GFS has trended milder The Manchester 12z ECM ensembles are out

I would love to go back into time to experience one of those celebrated pea-soupers of old

CET of 3.0C same as 1990-91 and 1995-96

Christmas 1978 was mild for the south. Christmases 1935, 1954 were mild

Met Office forecast is within range, now. It is going for a dry day here as of this moment. I think the FAX charts are worth looking at as well as they coming into range of Christmas

That report mentions that snow was still falling for parts of Essex, which I think is a bit of an odd way putting it unless it was a localised snowfall.

0.6C

I find it baffling, how and why some people joined this site in the first place, going off what they post. You would think it would be an interest in all things, meteorology. However, there a few who seem to live in the COVID threads and post little elsewhere. Why are you on a weather site and post after post is just on COVID? You have nothing to post about the weather on a weather site but have a lot to post on a virus? It was the same when politics was disscussed on this site.

Misty/foggy 1.1C

From Guadrian of the time Christmas eve 27th December 28th December

I posed this question in the model thread. ECM 12z and GFS 12z op runs are great for cold.....but are they great for snow? I don't think they are. They look great for deep blue clear skies and hard frosts, I take that then the current crud. However if you are a snow lover, you fancy taking your chances with the GFS 0z and 06z op runs than the 12z op run. Also ECM 0z op run

ECM 12z is actually a massive downgrade...in terms of snow...compared to the 0z run. Here's the poser...is ECM 12 op run a good run...if you love snow?

The GFS Control gives my location 16cm of snow for Christmas Day The GFS control run is seriously cold

If GFS 0z op run went like this then stuff Christmas Look at the northern hemisphere chart going into the New Year. I think people need to reign in their emotions and histrionics. If it isn't cold this Christmas, so be it. It is only one day.

I am disappointed with one aspect in that I thought it was going to be a dry anticyclonic Christmas. Now it looks it is going be an unsettled one although it does give a chance of a snow.

Definitely because ECM is a snowfest for Scotland, parts of Eire/Northern Ireland into northern England

Text forecast not great, over estimated cloud amounts by a margin and as a result, maximum temperatures are underestimated "Remaining settled on Friday, any mist or fog slow to lift, leaving most places cloudy all day but brighter spells developing here and there. Temperatures down a little on recent days. Maximum temperature 7 °C."

Shallow mist formed after the clouds cleared

I have never heard thunder on Christmas Day. In this article from the Guardian of 27th December 1947, it mentions thunderstorms in the south of Christmas Day 1947. London had not seen a thunderstorm since at least 1869 on Christmas nor Boxing Day. It seemed that the remarkable year of 1947 should have thunder on Christmas day

It has a touch of a December 1978 look to it and the run up to that Christmas.

Looked back at 2009-10 and this was GFS 0z and 12z runs of the 19th December 2009 for 29th December 2009 (240hrs ahead) and how it actually turned out This was the GFS 0z 12 years ago today for the 27th December 2009 Interesting to read the model thread at the time.

-0.5C

A tear drop low

I was going to post something like this, This is 06z yesterday mean I was expecting a dry anticyclonic Christmas day but is it actually trending to the unsettled now?

The Christmas Blizzard of 1927 was one of the worst blizzards of the 20th Century to hit the south. On Christmas Eve, there was a cold ENEly flow across the UK bringing with it, snow showers to the east coast and night frosts. By Christmas Day, a low pressure had moved into the English Channel and this engaged the colder air. Initially, the precipitation that fell was rain but as the low pulled down even colder air, the rain turned readily to snow and by midnight, many southern and southeastern counties had a snow cover. Conditions the next day were horrendous with heavy snowfalls and a gale force NEly wind bringing blizzard conditions and severe drifting. Villages were cut off by drifts up to 20 feet and food supplies had to be air-drop. Transport was virtually paralysed with train services seriously delayed or cancelled. Even in central London, depths of snow were approaching 10" From Guardian of Christmas Eve 1927 27th Dec 28th Dec 29th Dec 30th Dec 31st Dec Winston Churchill building a snowman at his home, Chartwell