Weather-history

A few snow falkes have fallen here in west Manchester. First time I've seen November snow since 1996.

One of the oddest winters is the winter of 1874-75 December 1874: -0.2 (4th coldest December at the time) January 1875: 6.4 (Joint 5th warmest January at the time) February 1875: 2.3

Fax chart for Monday http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

November 1985 was the coldest November since 1925 with a CET of 4.1C. Here's a summary of that cold, frosty November The month started with a northerly coming down across most parts and there were snow showers in the north and unusually low minima for early November, -4C in a number of places and -8C in one or two places were recorded and -12.1C was recorded at Santon Downham. A ridge cut off the northerly on the 3rd and by the 4th it had become milder as a low moved through to the north of Scotland but by the 5th, the northerlies were back bringing a cold Bonfire night with snow showers as far south as south Wales. The milder weather returned to all parts on the 7th as a SWly became established. This lasted until the 9th but as the low tracked into, Norway, the northerlies returned bringing sleet and snow showers to a number of places and severe frosts. High pressure in the Atlantic, slowly moved across the UK over the next couple of days, followed by a frontal system bringing higher temperatures and some rain. High pressure was intensifying over Scandinavia and this caused the frontal system to become slow moving over the UK and on the 18th, it began to move westwards as a cold easterly became established. Snow showers and maxima near freezing were reported in the south. In London, it snowed for several hours on the 18th. A slight shift in the high shifted the wind to a ENEly resulting in slightly higher temperatures and the wintry precipitation turning into light rain and drizzle. The high itself began to shift westwards and the wind began to develop more of a northerly component. By the 25th, the high was near Greenland and a frontal system came down in the northerly bringing with it very cold arctic air and snow showers. A complication developed as a low over Denmark began to drift westwards, so by the 27th, it was over NE parts. This brought snow showers to many parts, 15cm of snow was recorded at Lerwick. Over the snow cover severe frosts ensued with minima of -18.5C recorded at Aviemore and -12C at Shawbury on the morning of the 29th. It was a very cold and wintry end to the month in Scotland, -20.9C was recorded at Kinbrace but in the south a warm front was moving up from the south west bringing much milder weather on the 30th, the start of a mild December. Some data from that month Heathrow Mean Max:8.1 Mean Min:1.2 Lowest Min:-5.7 Air frosts:11 Falling sleet/snow:3 days Manchester Mean Max:6.8 Mean Min:1.4 Lowest Min:-4 Air frosts:9 Lying snow:2 days Glasgow Mean Max:7.0 Mean Min:-1.7 Lowest Min:-9.3 Air frosts:21 Falling sleet/snow:8 days

2nd warmest October on record, warmest September/October combination on record. Seem to be months with distinct halves is the theme of 2005. Feb 2005 First half: mostly mild Second half: Cold March 2005 First half: Cold Second half: Exceptional mild June 2005: First half: Fairly cool mostly(coolest for 10 years according to Trevor Harley) Second half: Very warm Less distinct but October 2005 First half: warm Second half: exceptionally warm Second half of October 2005 was warmer than the first half. November 2005 First half: very mild Second half: Cold?

Mile End, London holds the record for the longest rainless period with 73 days from 4th March 1893 to 15th May 1893 Not far from where I live, Warrington reported no rain from the 1st of April 1980 to the 19th of May 1980, 49 days

Manchester did well for snow. Mean Max: 2.8C Mean Min: -1.5C Lowest Min: -13.5C (12th) Highest Max: 9.8C (4th) Number of air frosts: 18 Days with falling sleet/snow: 15 Days with lying snow: 18!

Dyce December 1981 Mean Max: 2.6C Mean Min: -2.2C Highest Maximum: 15.0C on the 3rd Lowest Minimum: -13.2C on the 26th Air Frosts: 19 Days with falling sleet/snow: 23

Summer 1846 was a scorcher (17.1) but not a dry one though. May-June 1846 is the warmest May-June period on record with a CET of 15.25 As for summer 1995, well July-August period was the hottest on record with a CET of 18.9! Also the period July-September 1995 is the warmest such period with a CET of 17.17 despite the average September The period August-October 1995 is the warmest such period with a CET of 15.27 July 1995 is the 5th warmest on July on record August 1995 is the hottest August on record October 1995 is the 4th warmest October on record So the period July-October 1995 was exceptional despite the average September

June/July 1976 is the warmest June/July combination on record with a CET average of 17.85 (17.0, 18.7) The period May/June/July 1976 is the warmest May to July period with a CET 15.93 (12.1,17.0, 18.7)

Weird I had a precognitive feeling that someone had posted an article about summer 1976 Here's the article I wrote about it. The summer of 1976 was the hottest and driest summer ever recorded in the UK with a CET of 17.8C. Here's a summary of that summer. JUNE June started with cloud and some rain over the UK as fronts passed through but on the 2nd the Azores High ridged towards the UK settling the weather. Fronts moved across the NW parts of the UK but the ridge held sway across southern parts. As the ridge moved into Europe, southerly winds flooded the UK and temperatures rose to the high 20s in the sunshine. A cold front moved into western parts on the 9th but ahead of this system, temperatures rose into the low 30s in the SE. The cold front moved through bringing cooler weather to all parts. The middle of June was mixed with unsettled weather in the north but the high pressure to the south of the UK ensured that the southern parts of the UK saw little rain until the 19th where a frontal system straggled southern parts. The weather changed on the 20th, when a high developed over the SE of the UK and this drew up very hot air from the Meditterenean. This was the start of a remarkable heatwave where temperatures were 30+C every day until the end of the month. The London Weather Centre recorded a maximum of 34.8C on the 26th, southampton recorded a maximum of 35.6C on the 28th. The weather was uncomfortably hot for those who work in offices as most did not have air conditioning. Nights were particularly uncomfortable with minima as high as 20C. The heat caused heath fires in the south as a result of the lack of the rain but in the NW of Scotland there was no lack of rain here as fronts off the Atlantic continually brush the far NW. It was a particular dull month here but elsewhere it was a fairly sunny, dry hot month. JULY The heatwave of late June continued into July with the high moving to the north of the UK and this allowed a hot gentle easterly flow across the UK. 32+C was recorded everyday somewhere in the UK up to the 7th. After the 7th, the heat lost its intensity as Atlantic systems moved into the west with some rain but the south and east remained mostly dry. The weather had becomed unsettled generally around mid month with westerly winds and lower temperatures. There were thunderstorms in the SE ahead of a cold front and more on the 20th and 21st but there was little rain with pressure high to the west of Ireland. A cold front swept through at the end of the month and this brought cool northerly winds and even a touch of ground frost to the north. It was a very warm and largely dry July over most parts although the NW of Scotland missed out again AUGUST Although the month started with fronts across the UK, it wasn't long before high pressure was back to retain the dry weather. The high cell moved into Scandinavia and although fronts tried to move into the UK, they were killed off by the high. The weather became hot again and temperatures were in the low 30s around the 24th and 25th just as the high began to recede into the Atlantic. This allowed low pressure over Spain to move northwards and a front to the north to move southwards. This resulted in heavy rain and storms, the first significant rain for a number of weeks in many places. August was another very warm dry month. The effect of the summer was huge. Drinks, ice cream, barbecue, and bikini sales rocketed during the summer but the greatest impact was the lack of water. Reservoirs were drying up and the Government launched meaures to conserve water. People were advised to share baths, to use the bath water to water the garden, to place bricks in toilet cisterns to conserve water. Standpipes were launched and many parts of the UK had no running water for much of the day. The drought caused forest and heath fires in the south and fireman were unable to control these because of a lack of water. Gardens and parks were brown and parched. The Government created a minister for drought, Denis Howell, such was the serious nature of the drought. The ministry was created just as the heavy rains came to replenish the reservoirs June 1976 actually had a CET of 17.0 and the hottest June on record was 1846 with a CET of 18.2

Believe it or not 28th November 1985! There was a partial covering on the morning of the 21st of November 1988.

The 13th of June record maxima for that date is 28.3C set in 1948 and equaled in 1994. It is the only date during a summer month that hasn't recorded an official maximum of 30+C yet.

Just a rough analysis 1996: Very cold May, record breaking heatwave early June 1986: Very cold February, last sub zero CET month, very cold April coldest since 1922, cold August since 1956, cold September 1976: Hottest summer on record, very wet September/October, cold December (colder than 1995) 1966: June the warmest month of the year 1956: Very cold February, very wet cold summer especially August. 1946: Highest maximum ever record in November (21.7C) 1936: April colder than March, very wet July (wettest since 1888) 1926: Very mild february 1916: Mildest January on record, cold snowy March, very cold June, coldest December since 1890 1906:- 1896: Driest May since 1844, very wet September 1886: the coldest February since 1855, wet May 1876: wettest December on record 1866: wettest September since 1799 1856: - 1846: Very mild January/February, hottest June on record, very cold December 1836: Driest May since 1795 1826: Cold january/mild February, 2nd hottest summer on record, very dry April to June period, December milder than November 1816: notably cold year, "the year without a summer" 1806: the mildest December since 1733 1796: Exceptionally mild January and April but an exceptionally cold December (1 of only 6 sub zero Decembers) 1786: A very cold March, cold September and November but a notably warm June. 1776: An exceptionally cold January 1766: Driest January on record, 1756: Cold april, a very cold May 1746: Cold October, December warmer than November by 2C 1736: Notably warm year, very mild January, very warm August,. 1726: Very warmMay-June period 1716: An exceptionally cold January 1706: Notable warm May-June period 1696: April as warm as January. 1686: A notable warm year for time period, A very mild January, a warm June 1676: An exceptionally hot June, summer 1686 was the hottest summer on record until 1781. December was exceptionally cold, one of only 6 sub zero Decembers 1666: Hot July-August period

Lets see how true this old weather lore is "Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck." Here's Novembers with a CET of <3.5 and the following winter CETs 1782 Nov 2.3 Winter 3.2 1915 Nov 2.8 Winter 5.5 1807 Nov 2.9 Winter 2.4 1684 Nov 3.0 Winter 2.7 1851 Nov 3.1 Winter 4.8 1862 Nov 3.2 Winter 5.7 1910 Nov 3.2 Winter 5.0 1740 Nov 3.3 Winter 2.8 1746 Nov 3.3 Winter 4.8 1786 Nov 3.3 Winter 4.1 1919 Nov 3.3 Winter 5.6 1923 Nov 3.3 Winter 3.9 1815 Nov 3.4 Winter 2.4 1871 Nov 3.4 Winter 5.2 Mixed results to be honest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Flowers bloomin' in late Autumn A sure sign of bad winter comin' Here's very mild Novembers with a CET of 8.5 and > and the following winters 1994 Nov 10.1 Winter 5.9 1818 Nov 9.5 Winter 4.1 1938 Nov 9.4 Winter 4.7 1743 Nov 9.3 Winter 3.1 1730 Nov 9.2 Winter 2.5 1817 Nov 9.1 Winter 3.2 1881 Nov 8.9 Winter 5.1 1939 Nov 8.7 Winter 1.5 1821 Nov 8.6 Winter 5.8 1899 Nov 8.5 Winter 3.1 1951 Nov 8.5 Winter 3.9 1953 Nov 8.5 Winter 4.1 1978 Nov 8.5 Winter 1.6 2002 Nov 8.5 Winter 4.7 Again mixed results

Interesting one here Phil 1805 annual rainfall: 734.8mm 1855 annual rainfall: 744.5mm 1905 annual rainfall: 764.5mm 1955 annual rainfall: 773.3mm 2005 annual rainfall: ? 2005 has been quite a dry year so far is it going to end that way though.

Here's a very peculiar one Rainfall August 1865: 126.0mm September 1865: 9.5mm October 1865: 168.4mm An extremely dry month sandwiched between two very wet months Another "5" factor :lol:

Here's a couple more January 1795 CET: -3.1C January 1796 CET: 7.3C The coldest January on record followed by the mildest January on record at the time. The odds of that happening must be pretty small especially after 100 years of record keeping. The 3 warmest Autumns on record happening in consecutive years Autumn 1729 CET: 11.6 Autumn 1730 CET: 11.8 Autumn 1731 CET: 11.8

Here's some quirky stats , some oddities that weather stats throws up from time to time. The last occasions when June was the warmest month of the year. June 1970 16.4 June 1966 15.4 June 1960 16.1 June 1950 16.2 June 1940 16.4 June 1922 13.8 June 1920 14.4 Oddly, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all recorded June as the warmest month of the year or 5 out of the last 7 occasions that this happened Summers ending in "8" When was the last warm dry summer with a year ending in 8? 1868 CET: 16.9 Rain: 143mm 1878 CET: 16.0 Rain: 271mm 1888 CET: 13.7 Rain: 317mm 1898 CET: 15.1 Rain: 166mm 1908 CET: 14.9 Rain: 216mm 1918 CET: 14.9 Rain: 204mm 1928 CET: 14.8 Rain: 253mm 1938 CET: 15.3 Rain: 226mm 1948 CET: 14.8 Rain: 259mm 1958 CET: 15.3 Rain: 310mm 1968 CET: 15.1 Rain: 274mm 1978 CET: 14.5 Rain: 210mm 1988 CET: 14.8 Rain: 268mm 1998 CET: 15.2 Rain: 230mm 2008 ? Is Summer 2008 going to break this odd run? Severe winters and 50 year factor? Take the last sub 2C winter: 1979 CET: 1.6 Go back 50 years to 1929 CET 1.7 and keep going back 50 years each time, you come up with this list 1979: 1.6 1929: 1.7 1879: 0.7 1829: 3.9 1779: 5.6 1729: 1.7 1679: 1.0 5 out of the 7 winters were sub 2C, all winters had a below average January. January 1829 was colder than Januaries 1985 and 1987. Warm summers and 50 year factor or something even odder? The hottest summer on record is 1976 with a CET of 17.8, go back 50 years to 1926 and keep going back 50 years and you come up with this list 1976: 17.8 1926: 15.6 1876: 16.0 1826: 17.6 1776: 15.2 1726: 16.0 1676: 16.8 Only summer 1776 was a touch below average. 1676 was the hottest summer on record until 1781 1826 was the hottest summer on record until 1976. So 3 of those summers have held the title of hottest summer on record and even odder those summers are 150 years apart. 1676, 1826 1976 Ripley's Believe It or Not! Anyone else got some more?

I don't have exact figures but I suspect it wasn't despite the hot spell during early June 1996

1995 was a remarkable year not only did it have the warmest August on record. It had the warmest July/August combination on record It had the warmest July/August/September triple combination on record It had the warmest August/September/October triple combination on record. That August/September/October 1995 triple combination had a CET average of 15.27 Now the August/September/October 2005 period has a CET average of about 14.7 at the moment, pretty high. Aug 16.2 Sep 15.2 Oct 12.6 <------going off Phil Eden's figures.

Now the warmest 27th of October on record, one of the warmest October on records, one of warmest September/Octobers combinations on record.

Today's weather (27th October 2005) is very similiar to this day and I think it is going to be as memorable as that day as well.

Can't find the story on their website nor their latest front page has the story of it anymore. http://www.express.co.uk/news.html

Mayor of London Ken Livingstone warned that London and the South-east could face the worst winter since 1962-63, when Britain was frozen from Boxing Day until April with an average temperature of 0.2C (32.3F). Well that info in the Indy is wrong, March 1963 wasn't a frozen month as made out there, it was actually close to average. Some of these stories are really becoming absolutely sensationalistic and silly now. There are going to be some eggs on people's faces if it goes awry.