[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

2 hours ago, stodge said:

Morning all

One or two excellent comments last night to counterbalance the trolls. No one ever said the coming week was going to produce "feet of disruptive snow" and while my part of lowland East London is dry, very cold and clear currently, who knows what the day and the Thames Estuary might bring ?

• This is somewhat incorrect in my view. Perhaps best to take some peoples posts with a pinch of salt. I see certain peoples names now and quickly scroll down to the next before one of my fuses blows due to over ramping, but it saddens me that as soon as anyone has recently posted views similar to what I've also been seeing, that they are immediately set upon and are subjected to the kind of treatment seen in the closing scenes of The Wicker Man. A lot of us want snow, but we've been here so many times over the years people have a right to be cautious. I haven't the time to scroll though all of last weeks over the top posts, but I've included just one example of many below. it might be good to remember some of us have differing views, despite wanting the same end result, and to call people trolls just because they don't see what you see really isn't on. The exact opposite could be said about some over the top snow trolls on here, who see one good run and then head straight to Mountain Warehouse for a thermal ski jacket which in all likelihood will end up on Ebay a week later. This is supposed to be a model discussion forum. A few people tried to be level headed and were ridiculed and it now seems they were right. It might be an idea to hold back before ripping them to shreds in future. Just a thought......

On ‎01‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 06:34, snowfish1 said:

I'm a very excited Boy this morning Mucka shall I go find my new toboggan ?

If ECM is right you had better hurry and find it before it gets buried. 

 

[Model output discussion - heading into 2018]

7 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The met office 30 day ahead forecast changes more than the mood on this thread , and that’s saying something ! 

Hehe or a CFS +1074 chart.....still, gives us a little excitement in the run up to Christmas, doesn't it?

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

Wow. My overnight visit to this forum for updates from the pro's (and more than useful semi pro's) has revealed the place has turned a little crazy tonight. What's happened?

Aaaah well, never mind, I have a rare gut feeling that the earlier references in this forum to a possible front loaded winter should really have referred to January being a month we'll talk about for years to come, and not for the amount of rainfall like the past few years! The models don't seem to be going that way  as yet but let's see eh?

Thanks Fergie for your continued information. Much appreciated.

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

You have to admire the work put in on this thread from the honourable members from Exmoor & The New Forest above. This forum is all the better for it. Many thanks to you both.

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

 

 

 

Not looking brilliant this morning folks, but don't despair. Remember the date everyone. 26th February 2015. Coldies heaven, courtesy of the ever reliable CFS.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Dear oh dear. It really is looking grim isn't it? This mornings runs giving me that feeling I had back in December with low after low spawning off the Atlantic. Is there any end in sight?

 

My feelings go out to those poor folk in already badly flooded areas as it just seems there will be more rain to add to the misery.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

That really is quite a block on the 00z 240 of the GEM......and the chances of it are.......?????

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Are you using the 80/20 rule: absorb 20% and disregard the rest? And if you're ever not sure, I always check two things: who's posting - you get to know who's talks sense and who certainly does not - and where they live

Mac

But most importantly, should you ever been in the position of thinking a cold snap might be coming to an end because that's how you might interpret the models, make sure you put on your suit of armour before posting anything! My experience of lurking over the years is that the 'snow junkies' who would sell their kids X-Box 360 for a flake of snow, tend to leap on anyone who dares to mention that dreaded weather related word 'r**n' or types anything about the possibilities of temperatures raising above 4 degrees celcius between the months of October and April. Still, it's often worth watching the aftermath when it's gone the way you thought and observing them turn on each other before the top addicts rush off to the fridge freezer to partially leave the door open in anticipation of the severe ice build up to take them through to the next modelled cold snap Entertainment at its best to go along with some realistic model watching!

n.b. please correct me if a snow junkies maximum temperature before they explode is 4c. It may of course not be acceptable to have anything but ice days in their world!

Moving on, snow now turning to rain yet again by the looks of things this weekend around here at some point, the timing of which is still uncertain. Not so much a cold block but more like the Atlantic losing a bit of puff this week in my opinion. A weak sleety /snow 24 hours broken into two sections followed by a few below freezing nights shouldn't be sniffed at I suppose, but you'd have been forgiven for thinking we were on the verge of something monumental by reading some of the stuff on here this past week! Oh well, better luck next time perhaps, but what was forecast on the local BBC outlook earlier was broadly what I expected. With those upper temps chopping and changing on the ECM for the forseeable, anything more substantial looks to be a bonus at this stage from the Midlands south.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

It does seem to me people are picking up the 500hpa charts, seeing a massive deep area of blue coming our way and assuming this is going to be heavy snow blizzards.

What is actually happening is this is showing the pressure differences of a deep 968 low pressure coming our way which will pump atlantic warmth into our cold weather.

Given that it is already falling as rain/sleet in places and we are under the influence of supposedly cold weather, by the time this reaches us it will almost definatley be cold high winds, heavy rain

and dark grey skies.

And this is the post of the day so far for me. Yes it's cold and yes there's been snow, but come on folks, time to get real. Five miles down the road it was raining yesterday afternoon, Not really much of a cold 'block' is it?

I'd love things to be 1947 all over again, but a kid blowing through a pea shooter on the Scilly Isles could probably blast this feeble effort away!!!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

not meaning to be downbeat but today has been a day of pretty much constant downgrades both in the short and medium terms. The only ray of light was the ukmo at 120 and ian says that has been disregarded by the met. So where does that leave us?

Another day of downgrades tommorrow and i think we can call the end to the cold spell fri or sat. What has been particularly dissapointing is the complete downgrading of our midweek easterly from something special to a calm but cold spell of weather.

I dont think the jet will undercut as people are hoping!!

Probable cause of our demise low heights around greenland and that big hunk of vortex in eastern canada.

Yep. As much as at pains me to say it, I couldn't agree more. My only positive is that there's been so much chopping and changing over recent days that it could all be different later!

That UKMO T120 was something to cling onto earlier, but now Ian has told us it has been modified, I see little from the current charts to keep me upbeat. A real shame as there was huge potential a few days back.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013]

Barely awake right now, but really glad I finally finished the post and got all of this of my chest. Just couldn't find enough time earlier.

Best regards.

Thank you for the time and effort put into this Recretos. A most informative post and very much appreciated.

[Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward]

To be completely fair you may have a point somehwere in that rant BUT this is the model discussion thread not the nowcasting thread - if people want to post charts in FI and comment on them with their opinions then so be it? I am baffled as to why there would be an issue - it's up to YOU if you choose to read them - there is an ignore feature so.... Use it..

I agree with Guernsey completely. Been reading this forum for years and it's the same every time! It's laughable. It's even prompted me to finally post, something I thought I'd never do, but I had to agree with Guernsey as already he was being attacked.

Saw a comment earlier regarding speed reading and that's what I do in the winter months. Best to stop off at the comments of GP, Chino, Gibby, Steve M, Fergie, Old Met Man, Ian Brown (or whatever he's calling himself this week) and last, but by certainly no means least, the excellent John Holmes!I - bin the rest as it's usually nonsense. Thankfully we have more reasoned behaviour over at the Model thoughts and summaries thread.

As for next week, looking cold with snow more than likely. Let us see where it takes us. You may be surprised!