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Luisport

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    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

    Currently at 995 mb -- 6-hourly pressure time series: 987, 980, 963, 935, 922, 919 at tau+36. 65mb/24hours is ferocious/extreme deepening

    5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

    GFS back to 919 mb with explosive cyclone off east coast that will move WNW of Iceland during next 36-48 hours. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/294659035070861314/photo/1

    Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

    The low in the W Atlantic goes from 987mb to 938mb in about 18hrs! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif - A drop of 49mb! #wow

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ryan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

    At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/286930352000335874/photo/1

    11 minRyan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

    Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/286928660567576576/photo/1

    2 hRyan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

    UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Dude, I know you keep asking but nobody on here (or anywhere else for that matter) is going to know for sure what the interaction between the Stratosphere and the troposphere will be following on from the SSW for a while yet, never mind where the sweet spots are going to be in and around Europe, IF things go our way.

    Its a VERY developing and dynamic situation. Best thing is stick around in here over the next couple of weeks and see what occurs.

    Thank you so much for your reply. I'm very worried about all this, because me and everyone in Portugal are not prepared for a big cold. I say that if we get temp of -10c or below for some time, many people will die. Me and my family have to get out of our home and go south for survive... so this is a very bad situation for us. So the only thing i hask you and others is as soon as you can and know, please post what we in the south europe can expect. Thank you so much for this brilliant collective work!Posted Image

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    GFS 06z forecasts for the polar high to emerge over Greenland at 30hpa for d15, which is very encouraging-

    In all forecasted regions of the strat, the secondary warming (that at 30hpa stems from a polar high 'push' in the arctic ocean area) will take the vortex energy from NE Canada to Alaska- transporting most cold energy and also weakening the vortex substantially (even at 100hpa)- as shown by the d16 forecast

    The response would be for a gradual shift towards heights to the north (Iceland-Greenland-Svalbard), with weakening energy moving progressively west in the medium term in Canada. The lingering vortex at 100hpa then transports from Siberia into Scandinavia and western Russia by d14- and so the likely shift to MJO phase 7 (from 6-- watch EC 240 this morning) and the likelyhood of retrogressive motion in our locale (as touted by the GFS) towards Greenland

    Posted Image

    Tropospheric response is pretty sharp on the ball- I would say the likelyhood of colder conditions setting into much of western and northern Europe increases significantly from around the 12th of January

    Please can you tell me something about situation for south europe, specialy Portugal and Spain? Thank you so much.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    **Below info Updated at 2:30 PM**

    The new 12z GFS forecast shows the polar vortex greatly displaced. Instead of being in the Arctic, it's all the way down in Japan! It appears another piece of the vortex may be off the coast of Europe. High pressure trapping the vortices south would theoretically deliver yet another crushing blow to the polar vortex, which I don't know will be able to recover fully in Jan-Feb.

    Andrew http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2012/12/polar-vortex-close-to-collapse.html

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    And while on the topic of cold and snow, the GFS and ECMWF models show significant stratospheric warming across the North Pole and Canada towards the middle of January. With the NAO expected to fall rapidly at that time, and with the AO expected to rise rapidly at that time, it's about to get very cold for many across the United States. The split & temporary collapse of the polar vortex we've seen in recent years has been interesting.. Considering it tends to happen after solstice, one of these years it's not going to set back up for the rest of winter. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2319#yourcomment

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    You can never tell the tropospheric response at this stage (-10d from SSW), but the overall outcome would be more conductive to northern blocking, with vortex energy moving elsewhere, potentially away from northern latitudes- the crux of the current warming will be how the vortex responds (and to a lesser extent, where the polar high and associated ridge puts itself)-

    Right now, I couldn't tell you, but the chances of cold will increase for Iberia as we progress through January. Ask back in perhaps a week or so and confidence will be higher as the NWP comes to grips with the energy 'spill' from the initial warming.

    Thank you so much for your reply... as i understand it's difficult to know what will happen, but what kind of temp we can expect in Portugal? You know we are not prepared for cold temp, so it's important i have an idea of what i should be prepared. Thank's a lot!Posted Image

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I everyone, i'm new here! I'm very happy by found this forum topic. This is a very difficult issue to understand but i hope that with time and your help i will succede. Let me make 2 questions... maby 3 to anyone that can answer. First we will have a PV collapse on first 10 days of January? What events can we expect with it? What regions can be hit? Sorry about my dumy questions... Posted Image

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