SomeLikeItHot

After a couple of hours of light snizzle when the snow on pavements mostly melted it seems to be picking up a little here now. About 3cms over grass and car etc. would be nice to pick up another few cms.

probably 2cms here in Billericay. Road (gritted) is a bit slushy but drivable, paths are covered mostly when they are not too sheltered by trees, and still coming down moderate to heavy. - Reckon there has been a cm in the last hour certainly visibly thicker than when I got up. A few more hours of this and it will be a nice fall. Hopefully it picks up at some points.

I like Warmth also but we might as well have something extreme if we aren't going to get it. And I have no idea why 1 failure of the ECM this winter is held against it more than multiple back flips by the GFS? This isn't just a subjective bagging, we know that sometimes it can be more right than the other models but statistically its worse than the ECM and UKMO particularly 4 + days out. Yeah, although it is a bit slower to break down and snowier when it does. The whole of the UK was under positive uppers at this time in the 12z - The thing to note is no other model whips up the atlantic low like that. Something that the GFS almost always over does.

18Z very different sth of UK at 96 hours from the 12z, much more like the 6z - and every other model known to man. 12Z 18Z

I have no doubt that the GFS will be first to spot the thaw. I believe it was in January also but it also spotted about 5 false ones on the way. As I have posted before though its also likes to have rock solid ensemble support and then do total ensemble backflips. Still there is also some ECM ensemble support for a warm up around that date so its not out of the realms of possibility. Edit: I see SK makes the similar point.

Will be a Good Friday flood if the GFS pans out.

So at 144 GFS has whipped up an Atlantic super storm, to smash the block. While the UKMO just wants to slide under. Will be interesting to get the ECM view.

UKMO at 96 Versus the GFS south coast snow chart.

But yet this shows snow though doesn't it? Anyway this is all a feature of GFS bring a more SE flow with the low pushing into the channel, UKMO still runs more due easterly and I don't think would have it.

Another feature of interest GFS now has band of precipiation coming in to the SW, Ireland and Wales on Tues Morning. Would deliver some snow.

Snow fall areas by Sunday morning. Certainly both put the extent it further south now. GFS has backed of the intensity at the heaviest areas. Still both prediction some decent falls forthcoming. The unreliable NAE And the unreliable GFS Compared with their previous runs. NAE And GFS Also what the NAE thinks is there now - probably been more melt than this would suggest in lower lying areas

Meaning we need an average CET of 1.5 for the remaining period to be less than 3 1.1 to equal 1962 - 2.8 0.9 to beat 1962 - 2.7 Using the current Met office forecasts and the GFS ensemble average for Oxford, it looks like averaging around 1.1 or the remaining period. Using the ECM Op - slightly colder particularly on the easter weekend - we would get around 2.7

I note the Met has updated their warnings, more areas under amber and into Saturday (and region shifted slightly). also East Anglia and parts of the midlands gets one into Sunday.

Looking at todays GFS 6z, and ECM etc we would be looking at some chance to beat March 62. Certainly I would expect (ie greater than 50% chance) of a sub 3 cet at this point. I can't see the daily CET averaging much over 0 for most of next week. Maximums might get up slightly later if it clears, but should be counteracted by low mins. Need to average just under 1 for the rest of the period to beat 2.8.

funnily enough yesterday I posted the GFS accumulations and was told (by someone else) to ignore the GFS and just use the more accurate NAE! But I agree the NAE totals seem too high but it also agree with your overall assessment, the main event would seem to be this evening into tomorrow when the second band hits, and the cold uppers are pushing back south. The GFS indicates a broader area of accumulations but potentially lower amounts in the highest areas compared with its earlier runs. Incidentally when we see NAE precipitation rates like this it says "Sum of precipitation over a 6 hour time interval" even though it is shown in 3 hourly increments. Does any one know is it meant to be amount over the preceeding 6 hours, the 6 hours centered on the time in question or the next 6 hours?

I wouldn't write it of yet as much of the precip is still yet to come. According to the 6z NAE there is another up to 20-30mm of precipitation yet to fall over much of the midlands, I guess it depends when the cold pushes back in and how it mixes with the precipitation into tonight. Totals to 6am - 12pm today. Totals to 6am Sunday.

Certainly a lot more precipitation into East Anglia on both GFS and NAE on this run.

From memory this was pointed out before the last cold easterly earlier in the month at about +120 then revised at around +48 to something heavier being possible. Southend and sussex in particular ended up with quite a bit. Of course same was said in late Feb at +120 and it panned out as very little in reality. So the morale of this story... I guess we will know closer to the date!

Not true about the Met not loooking at the GFS. Fergie mentioned a couple of days ago they were prefering its solution to the ECM at that point. Its just in general they prefer UKMO (obviously) and ECM.

GFS pushing the snow into E Anglia on Saturday. Good for me!

Lol Same. Completely useless colour scheme to me.

Amber warning for an area roughly the triangle encompassed by Liverpool, slightly north of Birmingham and slightly south of Sheffield. Bit surprised it didn't stretch more into wales and slightly further east to near derby where the peak precipitation was progged on some other model output (eg GFS which seem to peak at around Derby.

6 for me.

ECM also now, although about a day later. Its all in FI so I wouldn't count on it and it looks very like what the models were all saying at the similar time frame forward 6 days ago. Personally I am expecting heavy snow at Heathrow when I attempt to fly out on the 1st of April!

Any ideas why the GFS has a much weaker cold pool compared with the UKMO. While the 0 deg and -4 lines are similarly placed, the depth of cold within them is less on the GFS? Even at +6hrs the cold in Eastern Europe and Scandi area is about 2 degrees less for the colder regions.