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Heavy snow with big fat flakes and now settling on roads......... after 1 hour of ground-slush.
NH
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Light snow flurries here in Haverhill Suffolk.
East Anglians look well placed for a good fall today.
As Dave (TEITS) said in an earlier post, the wrap around tonight will be an added bonus for those snow-lovers out there
.NH
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Had a dusting here overnight.......
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Is that band of ppn due to give this region anything? Looks as though moving SE towards us. Also what accumalations are likely from the latest NAE - 5 - 8 cm ?
The first band may give a dusting to the west of our region, but generally just cloudy with light snow flurries. It's late tomorrow morning things become interesting.....
The second band that is currently over western Scotland will intensify across northeast England tomorrow morning before sinking into our part of the World late afternoon.
Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk could see 4 inches+
Counties further west and south likely to see snow too...... but maybe not quite so heavy.... but still snow nonetheless.
Tbh... it really is all about nowcasting. The charts hinted at a trend to colder weather, which is what we now have........ specifics 'where, when, how much etc is about radar watching.
One thing is pretty certain, we have a very cold and wintry week ahead in East Anglia!!
NH
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Based on today's GFS 06Z my vague analysis of tomorrow's snowfall ~ Early afternoon.
Although first I will be taking aboard a few rules of thumb.........
Temperature is probably one of the most crucial factors when determining whether or not snow is likely to fall. As a general rule of thumb, snow in the UK tends to fall when the temperature is 2C or less.
You may be wondering how snow can fall when the temperature is above freezing? Well the temperature of the air several metres above the surface is colder than at ground level. This snowfall can easily remain intact down to the surface, but does start to melt which is why it tends to be fluffy and wet (sleet and wet snow).
When temperatures remain at or below freezing the snow doesn't melt and therefore drier and more powdery..... great for snowboarding!
Temperatures of 2 - 4C will likely result in sleet or rain, although if it falls for long enough the air temperature will fall (evaporative cooling) eventually turning the sleet to snow.
The higher up you are, the colder it gets (hills and mountains) roughly by 1C for each 100m.
The UK is surrounded by relatively warm water, which means that in Winter temperatures in Coastal areas are kept slightly higher than further inland.
With temperatures being so crucial in determining snow, it means that whilst snow falls inland, locations 5 - 10 miles from the coast will see rain or sleet instead.
To add...... evaporative cooling is more likely under a slack and filled low pressure as winds don't mix in warmer moist air.
This chart will help those trying to determine if it will snow tomorrow in there location.
As for tomorrow early afternoon...... and will likely change so nowcasting is probably a better option.
Based upon this mornings GFS 06Z.........
Winds look slack which is good news for evaporative cooling (Rain turning to snow)
Dew points look very good across eastern England (Subzero).
Maximum temperatures under 2C across eastern England....... which is good news for snowfall and not rain.
Good thickness heights for eastern England - within the 528.
Precipitation down the spine of the Country and highly likely to change come the 12Z in a few hours
Based on the above information/data I would be forecasting moderate to heavy snowfall for eastern England no further south than London. Central, southern and southeastern England starting off as rain/sleet (snow chilterns etc) but readily turning to snow after dusk when air and ground temperatures fall away.
If I had to choose a prime A1 spot for tomorrows snowfall, I would be going for Cambridgeshire.
NH
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Certainly looking wintry........ brrrr
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GFS 12Z backtracks a fair few hundred miles west compared to yesterday's GFS 12Z output as expected. This time tomorrow I expect to see better height rises to our NW with regards to early to mid next week enabling stagnant friged very cold air to build over the UK. Atlantic doors closing over Ireland with the Jet energy from the eastern seaboard of America diving southeast into the mid Atlantic. Imo pressure will remain low over the Continent eventually leading to a NE/E wind later next week.
East Anglia and the SE end this week on a very cold note with the coldest hpa temperature's...... - 12Chpa not far away.
Snowfall...... By the time we get to saturday most of the sleet and snow will be restricted to the Channel Islands and Northern France with snow showers slightly more widespread than the charts currently show across eastern England. I do think East Anglia will stay mainly dry this weekend, but will see slow moving snow showers filtering in during monday as winds veer NE.
Certainly been a very interesting period for model watching this last week, with more to come. I'm siding with the MetO on their long-term forecast.........cold, frosty, sunshine and snow!
NH
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The GFS 12Z is more often than not over progressive with the Atlantic beyond T+144.
I suspect we will be looking at the very cold 850hpa temperature's staying in place across most parts of the United Kingdom next week, with the driest and sunniest weather confined to the west and north. With pressure remaining lower to our east and south the threat of slow moving snow showers or longer spells of snow sliding down eastern England.
The coldest temperature's will be IMO across the west Country and Wales early next week, under clear skies, light winds and any snow-cover from saturday's elongated front - 17C possible. Some southern Counties may get a fair few hours of snowfall...... and when you translate 1mm of rainfall is equal to that of 1cm of snow.....
A few inches 'at least' in some areas along the M4 Corridor.Lets hope the Nogaps T+144 chart that TEITS uploaded comes to fruition........
.NH
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Welcome to Netweather NH, could you pop your location in your profile so we know where you are please?
Certainly looks like the cold is on it's way around the 11th/12th
Thank you for the warm welcome Coast. I will update, no problems :-).
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Certainly looking interesting for our part of the World towards the end of next week, with height rises to our NE.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold 850hpa's to come forward in the models, with cold effecting the east before next weekend.
NH
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Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
Started snowing in Haverhill at 18:30 friday, and nearly 6 hours later its still coming down moderately. We have quiet a covering here now and with the prospect of prolonged snow until 06:00 today I suspect a fair few inches lying by morning.
NH