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Rinkydinks

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    Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The new output from NOAA 500mb anomaly charts shows the cold is on track, so amuse yourselves with the ups and downs of each GFS; but it will happen-honest.

    Detail will be provided within about the 144-168 time frame by the synoptic models IF they agree, that is UK (from144) and ECMWF and GFS from 168. If they don't agree then be VERY careful of drawing any conclusions. It (UK Met Fax) gets it wrong at times for sure but iit s updated through the day, watch for the time each one is updated, for positions of highs and lows at the surface, fronts and troughs. There output is as accurate as any of the models with the benefit of an experienced senior forecaster putting the finishing touches to them. For those wondering 'will it snow in my back yard' then forget trying to decide which model is right further out than T+120 and probably T+24. Think back to rainfall for your own area over the last few months, was the timing correct, the amount correct? On top of that there are 7 other variables to add to 'will it snow'

    Maybe a dash of cold water in some folks eyes but I hope newcomers may read this as I am sure they will be helped if they do and the rest of you lot of lovely folk if you care to try the advice.

    while typing this 12 posts=a very busy forum and probably going to get busier as the cold and prospects of snow approach.

    It really would make this a super place if everyone could be pleasant and polite to one another - please?

    Thanks....you have been placed iin my 'do not ignore liist'

    Rinky

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