[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Unless anyone here has access to the model source, mad FORTRAN skillz, a strong familiarity with the equations of Messrs Navier and Stokes, and a desire to go through several hundred thousand lines of code then any speculation as to how the SSW is being handled is somewhat moot, I think.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

I have to say in my short time here that Chart Viewer's dispatches from the Chinese NWP are a constant source of amusement. It's the only model where the actual weather arrives before the chart.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Probably worth bumping this which some may have missed earlier:

Posted by

Iceberg

on Today, 15:51 in

Forecasting Model Discussion

should be an interesting set of 12z coming up.

First off we've got the

GFS

; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.

Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06

GFS

would be good.

Finally the

ECM

,

A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep

for both), the 12z today should be the first

ecm

with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that

ecm

will revert to GH height rises in the medium term.

Data assimilation issue perhaps? Time will tell.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

December 1990, you say?

http://www.ourmansfieldandarea.org.uk/images/uploaded/scaled/Mansfield_Snow_Mid_Dec_1990-18.jpg

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Have a look at this http://forum.netweat...80#entry2463540

Which suggests that based on 54 SSW events over the decades on average a SSW leads to warmer weather rather than cold

"From a total of 54 SSW events compared with 1940-2012 CET anomalies

1-20 days following SSW is 0.038°C warmer than the 20 days preceding SSW.

7-28 days following SSW is 0.116°C warmer

15-45 days following SSW is 0.089°C warmer."

The CET is not a proxy for the entire Northern Hemisphere.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Each time I see one of those Chinese model charts, I feel like I need another an hour later.

Seriously, though, aren't the more erm... 'exotic' models derivatives of the GFS and therefore some consistency would be expected?

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Do we have any verification stats for localised model performance? By which I mean are statements like 'GFS models Greenland better than ECM' measurable, or is it anecdotal based on chart-viewing experience?

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Afternoon, all. Sometime lurker, first time poster here.

Very much a newbie, but found this link while looking for Strat model stuff:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00097.1

Only an abstract - the full paper is behind a paywall - but does it mean we should perhaps give the GEM more love when dealing with the current SSW?