TheIceManCometh
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Posts posted by TheIceManCometh
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Unless the trajectory changes quite significantly or it simply runs out of steam it would seem that even Coventry might get an inch or so out of this. Realistically the experienced forum commentators have been calling this very much a 'nowcast' situation from day one. I'm starting to think they're right. I always put my faith into the Met Office on these things but they've been incredibly poor over the last 24 hours. It took them 4 hours to acknowledge any light showers in Coventry this morning despite non-stop light snow from 7am!
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I don't see this panning out that well for Coventry. The Met nailed it last time and this time they're moving it South....
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An hour ago I couldn't work out how Coventry/Solihull were forecast more as it looked like it was falling apart. Now we seem to have two separate systems aimed right at us from the West and North! Incredible stuff, particuarly given the large amount heading over from Ireland for later too.
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Are we done in Coventry now? The front seems to be quickly decaying however it's forecast as only a brief interlude. I can't see it suddenly reforming or shifting to central England...
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34 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:
What are the roads like? My girlfriend works near the sky dome. She's currently staying with me this weekend but she's hoping that it will be too unsafe to travel to work tomorrow morning so she can have a snow day
wonder if she'll get away with it. Hope she can because i'm not working till tomorrow night!
I'm about to drive to the Skydome. Apparently the roads are brutal but I'll let you know if I make it!
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17 minutes ago, fizz511 said:
I would think that Coventry Council website would be the place to keep an eye on. If the forecast verifies I don’t think your attendees would make it anyhow?!
What event are you hosting? (Out of curiosity)
Do you want the definition of irony?
I'm hosting an ice skating show-
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This may seem daft, but the odds on schools being closed in Coventry on Monday?
Hosting an event for over a thousand people. To lose it would be expensive but of schools shut I'll have no choice.
Is Coventry nailed on for disruptive levels?
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28 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Fizz..
In Solihull, I recorded 17inches in that event. (40cms)
It was undetected until the Friday pm. It was associated with a small low in the North Sea which suddenly 'found' a pool of cold air in the circulation coming out of the low country/ Scandy.
Emergency messages were issued in the 6 o clock news and weather for the regions affected (East of the Pennines and the Midlands).. They even interrupted the BBC tele programmes with emergency news flashes during the evening..
About 220:00 on my dog walk I saw blue flashes in the sky. I thought it to be lightening.
Came back in just as the first flakes began to fall. The temp was still 5C.
The flakes were huge..... Snow began to settle immediately. All night it just hammered it down. Next morning we had about 12inches of level snow, but we could not see any due to drifting. The M6 was totally closed for 36 hrs. It snowed until about 13:00 here and I measured 17 inches. The highest totals in the country were recorded between Solihull and Coventry, shared with somewhere near Nuneaton..
Quite an event and not forecast by anyone until 6hours before the start of it..
Incredible stuff!
Oh yes and the flashes? - that was the power lines and trees being taken out by the incredibly wet and heavy snow.
The good news - it was a Saturday morning so we had the weekend to dig out.
People were freed from the M6 after 36 hours, just by the Coventry services .
MIA
PS One of the forecasters of the time wrote up a report on the incident. with all the snow depths. It must be on the webb somewhere by now,
Thanks for this. I was six years old yet I remember it vividly.
Bearing in mind that was my first memorable snowfall I spent the rest of my childhood thinking that was standard snow depths! We lived in a cul-de-sac and all the kids in the street built igloos and snow forts in the open end of the road. It was probably the happiest moment of my childhood - absolutely brilliant fun which lasted for days. At age six with snow at your waist you can't really ask for much more!
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I've a question for those familiar with this kind of low. I've heard a few saying it gets over cooked by GFS and tends to swing South compared to what the models show at this stage.
I'm hosting an event on Monday in Coventry. Disruptive snow on Sunday/Monday would cost a five figure sum (by disruptive read 'closed schools'). Should I be worried or are we confident it'll be a fairly minor event?
This is the first time I've prayed to be out the way of these systems and I feel dirty!
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Won't the much colder uppers we have this week mean less marginal events and more snow? Typically of course now we have the uppers we don't have the precip (!) but a few disruptions may see a surprise or two?
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Am I the only one simultaneously watching The Day After Tomorrow on Sky and browsing the models?
The snow shield here has been breached once here, wonder if the polar low (dum dum duuuuuummmmm) can breach it? -
Near Meriden
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MetO updated my area for heavy snow all morning. Looking NW on the radar I see we have incoming! There's a lot of precip pepping up heading this way. Might get a dusting out of this.
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While the consistency is there, I can't see much for our neck of the woods. This has been the Winter of 'jam tomorrow' so far and no reason to expect it not to continue. That said, I'm sure we'll still be glued to the outputs then radar/lamposts just to be sure
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Very interesting watching the radar. The pivot is gradually combining heavy precip to the NW and SW to pull it into an intense point. In about 3 hours the precip from Ireland will join it. I'm praying for a nudge SE and favourable uppers to cover Coventry. This will really dump between midnight-2am ish at this rate.
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Which way are we looking for snow? The band from the North to pivot, the huge band from the West to move in later tonight or the stream of heavy precip snaking from the South?
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I must add that it really seems to be picking up in intensity. If it does head this way, someone is getting a dumping!
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If that doesn't start to pivot then stall, we might all need to visit the Scotland thread! That's heading North rapidly...
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Curious about the wording of the MetO warning. It appears they suspect it may stall - am I right in reading it that way? I hope so as otherwise I can't see my area getting more than a dusting!
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How many people right now are looking up what there asl is lol
I literally just did that! 127m baby!!
Massive upgrade for my neck of the woods compared to last night. A little track further SE by even 20 miles could be great.
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I'm confident that this will flip again. Why? Because the models have been dire over the last week. I've no idea why as I'm not knowledgeable enough, but something is causing them to handle this week very badly. In a sadistic way I quite like a downgrade a couple of days before. I'm not comfortable going into the 36 hour range with my area being bang under the 'sweet spot' as you just KNOW it's going to screw you over and move on the day. Much rather it all takes a flip for the better at T12 where there's not much time to change back!
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Stunned to see all forecasts (MO, NW, TWO, XC) all broadly agreeing on heavy snow overnight Tues then snow all through Weds. Surely something has to give? We're the capital city of snow-fail!
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It's times like this I wish I didn't read the forums! Just looked on the Met and have 6 hours of heavy snow and 15 hours of light snow through Weds from tonight's update. Most normal people would allow themselves to get excited and get the sledges ready. Those who read these forums know that the minute they do that there'll be a huge shift or a random warm sector arrive on the next run! Rollercoaster.
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I wouldn't be surprised to pick up the odd snow shower at any point this weekend. Seems even 6 hours away they can't establish the track of the precip.
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wonder if she'll get away with it. Hope she can because i'm not working till tomorrow night!
The snow shield here has been breached once here, wonder if the polar low (dum dum duuuuuummmmm) can breach it?
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
This definitely looks to be pepping up over London. The next three frames will be very telling...