Su Campu
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Posts posted by Su Campu
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Gusting to 69 knots at Donegal Airport. Was 68 kts at Mace Head
SPECI EIDL 290537Z AUTO 25048G69KT 5000 +DZ FEW012 BKN026 OVC037 10/05 Q0994=
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69 knots at Donegal Airport
SPECI EIDL 290537Z AUTO 25048G69KT 5000 +DZ FEW012 BKN026 OVC037 10/05 Q0994=
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Plenty of thunderstorm potential off our coast this evening. Blue and Red show cloudtops cooling by <10 and >10 °C/hr, respectively.
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The weather will do what it likes, regardless of the enormous amounts of emotional fireworks on display. I sometimes think that some people forget that and have a go at those who don't share the (usually overdone) optimism of the majority. I think everyone likes to see a bit of snow, some want more than others, but a little bit of maturity is lacking at times.
I think things will wobble back and forth before settling down in the next 24 hours, so no real point in watching every frame of every run as they come out until then. My own feeling is that we will see some major snow on higher ground through much of the country next week, but unless the sea track of the airmass shortens to a stricter northerly, or the advection winds increase, then there may be a lot of low-level modification to the wrong side of marginal for sea-level, especially during the day. But we will see.
Goodnight.
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The negative thing about a cold spell is the amount of garbage one has to trawl through to find any meaningful posts in the likes of the model thread. You just can't go in there at the moment.
For me, there are two key indicators of a) how cold the spell will be, and b) how long it will be.
The low that is to form over the eastern US will be a key determining factor in how the Greenland high forms. That is still open to some uncertainty, but we want plenty of heights pumped north, not only for the short term but also to up the chances of a SSW.
A second one is the low that forms in the Atlantic later next week. That could give a battle ground snow fest, but it could also put a stop to things by running more north than progged now, feeding warmer air north. If it hangs south and passes east then bingo, but it's one to keep an eye on.
A third thing I am watching is the setup for polar lows. I feel confident we will see a couple forming north of Scotland next week, but the aforementioned factors will determine where they go from there.
Beats the mild muck of the past month anyway.
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We need 522 dam or lower here for a good shot at snow. 528 just doesn't usually cut it unless there is cold already in place.
In any case the 850-1000 thickness is more important. I find 1290 m or lower pretty much guarantees us snow.
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Nice cold thickness advection looks set to continue after the end of the 12Z ECM run. Strong NNE flow sets up, pulling down some proper cold air, with 500-1000 thicknesses of down to 516 dam. This particular setup would be conducive for polar lows, where we need at least a 43 °C difference between the sea surface and 500 hPa, but this would be nearer to Scotland in this case.
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There is a plethora of ECMWF (and other model) data available from the Icelandic met here, and other data here
ECM 0.5°: T850 anomalies, here are the last 10 days versus the next 10 days (MSLP solid lines, T850 dashed lines)
Similarly 500 hPa height and thickness anomalies (solid and dashed lines, respectively)
ECM Ensemble: Out to 15 days. Thickness (coloured), 500 hPa mean heights (solid lines), spread (dashed lines)
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That deep low for next Thursday seems to be holding back in the Atlantic. Could generate some serious surf though later in the week!
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Huge spread in the ECMWF ensemble means on that deep low around midweek. The hi-res operational gives sub-940 hPa but the mean is more like 964 hPa. A large spread in the strength and position of the upper trough too.
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That there would be a new long-range forecasting system at Met Éireann. That is good, but it seemed like it was somehow to give hope to people affected, like "Don't worry, we'll have more notice in the future"
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I'm not sure how a long-range forecasting system will help areas that are naturally prone to flood. Ok so we may know about very wet spells a bit more in advance but how is that going to stop the flooding? People already knew days in advance what areas were going to flood and measures were put in place to minimise it. The problem has got nothing to do with forecasting it and everything to do with bad planning, no dredging, lack of investment in flood defences, etc. The best model in the world will never change that.
If I were in Met Éireann I think I would be a bit miffed at the Taoiseach's comments. It's almost as if he's blaming them for not forecasting it.
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Happy New year all. Clean slate, let's be having the winter now, thanks.
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Ula passed just to the north of the Tongan island of Vava'u earlier today. The international airport reported up to 52 gust 82 knots.
201601020000 SPECI NFTV 020000Z 04035G60KT 9999 RA BKN005 OVC090 27/26 Q0995= 201601012300 SPECI NFTV 012300Z 07040G60KT 9999 -RA BKN005 OVC090 27/26 Q0995= 201601012200 SPECI NFTV 012200Z 05045G70KT 2000 -RA BKN005 OVC090 26/25 Q0995= 201601012000 SPECI NFTV 012000Z 09050G82KT 2000 +RA BKN004 OVC090 26/26 Q0992= 201601011900 SPECI NFTV 011900Z 10052G82KT 2000 +RA BKN004 OVC090 26/25 Q0990= 201601011800 SPECI NFTV 011800Z 13052G82KT 1000 +RA BKN004 OVC090 26/26 Q0989= 201601011700 SPECI NFTV 011700Z 15048G72KT 2000 +RA BKN005 OVC090 26/26 Q0989= 201601011600 SPECI NFTV 011600Z 14045G66KT 2000 +RA BKN006 OVC090 25/25 Q0989= 201601011500 SPECI NFTV 011500Z 17036G58KT 4000 +RA BKN006 OVC090 25/25 Q0990= 201601011400 SPECI NFTV 011400Z 18035G56KT 3000 +RA BKN006 OVC090 25/25 Q0992= 201601011300 SPECI NFTV 011300Z 17030G55KT 3000 +RA BKN006 OVC100 25/25 Q0996= 201601011200 SPECI NFTV 011200Z 11020G45KT 9999 RA BKN006 OVC100 26/24 Q0997=
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1039Z 85 GHz overpass and earlier rainfall rates of up to 1.2 inches per hour. Even allowing for parallax I think the bulk of the worst winds will have been just out to sea.
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Now forecast to peak at 115 knots as it hits Socotra later today. This is bad...
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Here is some information behind the activity in the Arabian Sea in the past two weeks.
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Moderate MJO and record OHC in the Indian Ocean are making for a remarkable couple of weeks in that area. Almost identical track as Chapala. It's a major pity there are no observations from Yemen or Somalia.
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I wrote this analysis of Patty. Warm seas, no shear and vorticity from a northerly outbreak over Mexico a few days previous all made her quite a foxy little vixen.
https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/24/an-analysis-of-record-hurricane-patricia/
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You mean south Atlantic.
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If the Hirlam were to be believed then Donegal and Derry would be getting pasted with snow tonight, with sub-515 dm thicknesses across all of Ulster. However, it's completely erroneous, as its 12Z analysis showed 531 dm at around Castor Bay, but the actual radiosonde measured 542 dm! Caveat emtor!
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The WRF 2km has a positive picture for many areas tonight, and the GFS seems to be also backing it up, pepping up the precip reaching the east. It's not all lost just yet.
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-4.9 °C at Mullingar this morning. -4.7 at Casement and -4.6 at Thomastown. No sign of the -11 °C in the synops at least.
The 00Z Hirlam has slightly increased the coverage of snow by midnight tonight but this is as far east as it takes it before it fizzles out and becomes more confined to NE Ulster. By morning it's rain all the way.
Atlantic storm Gertrude
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
69 knots at Malin Head too
PsMETAR MALI 290600Z AUTO 24049G69KT //// // BKN027/// 09/06 0991 MSL=