[North West England Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Still drizzle here.

Think its slowly turning colder now anything that drops out the sky after say 3pm surely got be snow..

Just been over scout head on my way back to work bit of a covering up there now , should think lees village will get some soon enough

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i mean 'big freeze', yes itll be a cold week, but not a week of deep cold, ice days, much snow and i dont think the noaa charts suggest a spell like that is likely to evolve, despite some 'building blocks' (awful phrase) being almost in place.

Thanks for taking the time to reply, i am still learning the how to use the anomaly charts, seems there is still much to learn

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep , thats how i read them too john (im learning! lol)
 

ok, theres some 'tastey' runs being produced, which those of you seeking cold must be hopeful about. but the 'best' charts for something cold (deep/lasting) are being produced by the suits that have got a lower verification rate. i note no ones championing the ecm, but statistically it performs the best.

as some of you know, im a convert to the noaa anomaly charts as i found that what john was saying about them - and their high accuracy rate was pretty much spot on.

the current charts dont really allow for much cold, other then a brief 48 hour or so shot (maybe a little longer) but the upper flow remains in the western quadrant, and backs more westerly as john mentions. so they IMHO dont support some of the more amplified cold outputs, theres no strong lasting scandi ridge on these charts (please feel free to correct me if im wrong) . so i wouldnt have thought the chances for anything other then a transitory cold few days are very great, and theres no widespread 'big freeze' (3 + ice days/ lying snow) that some runs appear to hint at.

the lower ecm chart is the sort of synoptic chart id expect the noaa's (esp the 8-14 day) to produce.

 

Bib, dont understand what your saying rob, every forecast ive seen shows the cold to last 6/7 days and reading JHs post above seems to suggest similar, so im curious where 48 hours comes from?  Genuine question,  Ive just checked all the available websites and not 1 of them shows a max of more 3deg c imby for the next 5 or 6 days, am i missing something?

[Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->]

I have to say that I honestly do not know. All I could suggest is that you approach NOAA, quote the posted fault, and ask if it had any effects? Or the Met O you never know they might give a reply from the Ops room?sorry can't be any more help.

Thanks anyway John, I will try e-mailing as you suggested. I will post any response i get on here for everyone's benefit.

[Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->]

Hi John

Would this error lead to a false reading in the raw model output, hence causing initial un-modified data to be look worse on the verification stats? Fairly new to this so a genuine question

[Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->]

I don't doubt this occurred but when the 'actual' data is being processed the analyst/forecaster will check for any 'odd' readings within any area. That would be flagged immediately and like I said before adjusted and remain adjusted until they were satisfied the data was acceptable alongside what the initialisation showed.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 20/04/13]

The mean trough still looks like remaining over the UK with any significant high pressure well to the west or NE.

Well backed up by cpc

ENS show GFS a warm outlier in FI

Cool and wet looks more likely than warm and dry.

[North West England Regional Discussion 12th February 2013>]

Welcome aboard Day1973.

It can be mad at times, especially when the weather doesn't play ball but friendly in this thread on the whole.

Thanks iand61, I'm very much a learner, I can't really read charts properly but I am starting to get the basics, lot's to learn yet though.

[North West England Regional Discussion 12th February 2013>]

Temp dropping off now 6c are we in for any frost tonight??

Think it might just drop below especially if it stays clear, ps live in a madhouse so all the norm for me hehe.

[North West England Regional Discussion 12th February 2013>]

Lovely late winters day up in Cumbria with barely a cloud in the sky since dawn. Reached 8.4c but the rather stiff SE'ly sind is making it feel decidedly chilly.

Welcome day1973

Thanks Liam and hello to u too summernsnow.

[North West England Regional Discussion 12th February 2013>]

1st post on here, albeit a while lurking and what a beautifull day and a rarity in these parts another 6/7 months of this will do just fine now.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.]

My 1st post on here and as someone who cannot read charts properly I very much value the informed comments on here by the more seasoned and level headed members. I found it quite sad to see SM saying he isn't going to post again on here but after reading some of the newer posters comments recently I completely understand the mans frustration. Myself and I dare say 95% of others are now going to loose a valuable source of information because of a small minded few. Thanks again for all the QUALITY information you have provided over the last few months, whatever happened to good old pleasant debates made for far better reading! Sorry Mods of topic but for people looking to learn SM, GP, IB, JH, NS etc... Are invaluable FACT!