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Everything posted by Daniel*
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evidently but as you see newer forecasts from ECM are maintaining -NAO for longer. This suggests blocking has been underestimated and likely we will see further improvement. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think I’ve found the likely explanation for improving model output, it refers to NAO recent forecasts are maintaining the block better…. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I definitely much prefer approaching Atlantic low on EPS it is more squeezed, the round lows are a troublesome sign, while it does not deliver a wintry outcome for south, there must evidently be a fairly sizeable portion which take a more UKMO path. The time when we want higher pressure over Scandinavia to aid in that southern progression we don’t have typical. The optimum blocking would be aligned Scandi to Iceland. I’m seeing more of output take Greenland high into more an Arctic high which is no good. A lot to be resolved don’t give up hope. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EPS this morning continued going wrong way mildest I’ve seen this week I believe, I can’t say it’s looking rosy at the moment. I think we need a quite big turn around and it needs to come very soon otherwise we’re going to see a lot of cold rain. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely a shift in wrong direction before and after Xmas. Hopefully we see better in morning. 00z EPS 12z If it fails could be a wet spell for south -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The blocking is definitely weaker in contrast to GFS also going too polewards. We won’t call this a disaster but it could be a lot better. Understandable to not yet see these details resolved. Likely we won’t till weekend. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Daniel* replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Little separating them really ECM also looks cleaner to northeast which is a good thing. -
This is from ensemble mean not operational run. And consider location..
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Some people have a very short memory GFS/GEFS did a flip earlier this year with February easterly, I’ve seen it many times for it to initially go all in, jump ship and then return to ship. EPS tightening up on cold
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What I find quite impressive with EPS is stubborn nature of cold pooling across western Russia and through Europe. Treat the cold being blasted away with a lot of scepticism, even if with miss first hoop that may be a further opportunity there is certainly room to be patient. It doesn’t appear blocking is going to fade anytime soon..
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You can’t get more beautiful cold spell evolution than this, the thing we coldies dream of at most wonderful time of year..
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Looks good to me. Bye bye Iberia heights we shouldn’t forget these also assist with pumping blocking further north…
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It’s a very micro concern but I can understand concern. Poised for undercut hopefully keeping pressure high over Greenland will help exert that.
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Good start to day GFS on an accelerated timeframe blasts ridge to Greenland very efficiently. Deep cold unavoidable.
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Wonder where you got that from but nope that’s day 8 and 9… day 10 not displayed. NAO continues to tumble with newer forecasts… Yesterday’s EC46 kept -NAO through first half of January…
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In ECM ens for Boxing Day you have coldest with a max of -1C in London and highest 13C! I can’t see it being anywhere near 13C myself.
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Yep very interesting, we do know the chance of vortex disruption is heightened with eQBO + La Niña and MJO going into phase 7+ given drivers at play this winter you would not expect a repeat of 2019/20.
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Chilly after this week… precipitation looking very dry, signs of that changing post Xmas might suggest a higher risk of snow.
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Stunning example of retrogression, really wacky charts… signs something unordinary is going on in atmosphere.