Daniel*

I definitely much prefer approaching Atlantic low on EPS it is more squeezed, the round lows are a troublesome sign, while it does not deliver a wintry outcome for south, there must evidently be a fairly sizeable portion which take a more UKMO path. The time when we want higher pressure over Scandinavia to aid in that southern progression we don’t have typical. The optimum blocking would be aligned Scandi to Iceland. I’m seeing more of output take Greenland high into more an Arctic high which is no good. A lot to be resolved don’t give up hope.

Atlantic low seems to behave heads SE into France maybe N of Spain…

EPS this morning continued going wrong way mildest I’ve seen this week I believe, I can’t say it’s looking rosy at the moment. I think we need a quite big turn around and it needs to come very soon otherwise we’re going to see a lot of cold rain.

Hi all, hope you’re all well, I’m currently isolating with covid well awaiting confirmation. I’ve barely been contributing here the weather has been so tedious, it has been a bore of year really. Would be great that remedied itself before year is out. white Christmas anyone?

Definitely a shift in wrong direction before and after Xmas. Hopefully we see better in morning. 00z EPS 12z If it fails could be a wet spell for south

The blocking is definitely weaker in contrast to GFS also going too polewards. We won’t call this a disaster but it could be a lot better. Understandable to not yet see these details resolved. Likely we won’t till weekend.

The Atlantic profile definitely seems better to me than GFS going under more convincingly…

Little separating them really ECM also looks cleaner to northeast which is a good thing.

This is from ensemble mean not operational run. And consider location..

Some people have a very short memory GFS/GEFS did a flip earlier this year with February easterly, I’ve seen it many times for it to initially go all in, jump ship and then return to ship. EPS tightening up on cold

What I find quite impressive with EPS is stubborn nature of cold pooling across western Russia and through Europe. Treat the cold being blasted away with a lot of scepticism, even if with miss first hoop that may be a further opportunity there is certainly room to be patient. It doesn’t appear blocking is going to fade anytime soon..

This is a classic cold spell written all over it, watch the 06z throw a turd…

You can’t get more beautiful cold spell evolution than this, the thing we coldies dream of at most wonderful time of year..

Looks good to me. Bye bye Iberia heights we shouldn’t forget these also assist with pumping blocking further north…

It’s a very micro concern but I can understand concern. Poised for undercut hopefully keeping pressure high over Greenland will help exert that.

Good start to day GFS on an accelerated timeframe blasts ridge to Greenland very efficiently. Deep cold unavoidable.

Wonder where you got that from but nope that’s day 8 and 9… day 10 not displayed. NAO continues to tumble with newer forecasts… Yesterday’s EC46 kept -NAO through first half of January…

In ECM ens for Boxing Day you have coldest with a max of -1C in London and highest 13C! I can’t see it being anywhere near 13C myself.

As Mr Murr has said on Twitter “hero to zero” with ECM 12z, it was looking great up to this point.

Yep very interesting, we do know the chance of vortex disruption is heightened with eQBO + La Niña and MJO going into phase 7+ given drivers at play this winter you would not expect a repeat of 2019/20.

Chilly after this week… precipitation looking very dry, signs of that changing post Xmas might suggest a higher risk of snow.

Stunning example of retrogression, really wacky charts… signs something unordinary is going on in atmosphere.

Don’t have much faith in seasonal models, the current model data is always most useful in tune with constant changing oceanic/atmospheric processes. GLOSEA was going for a Euro slug we know these tend to stick for whole winters. It did dire last winter this could well be another poor winter for it. so far we have seen a tendency for low heights in Europe particularly further east into Europe total opposite We will see a pressure rise from south but it’s no Euro slug with low heights and cold troughing again wanting to cut into Europe, it doesn’t look to be one of those winters at least that seems clear to me in first half of winter…

Every new run from GFS today has been more amplified than last with ridge stretching closer to Greenland… 00z 06z 12z

A lot of nonsense quite frankly from supposed experienced posters, who expect the next single Gfs run to be pivotal, nothing will be resolved for some days. Too much emotion in this thread, and zero patience, it is 12 days into December goodness not even 2 weeks into winter yet. In south of England proper winter rarely starts before new year.