Joker
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Posts posted by Joker
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Putting aside tomorrows anticipated snow, the cold spell has been pretty ordinary to me, no Ice days small amounts of snowfall and 1 decent hard frost. It seems to me we haven't had a true 'blast' of continental air only a stagnating area of continental air brought in by a 'half assed' Scandy HP, nothing like true cold easterlies as per 82', 85, 87, 91 or other events I could mention, infact fared far better last February and with far less media interest as it only concerned a small area of the UK. Lost how many times we've seen 'snowmageddon' charts on the models, they very rarely come off, at least Wales and parts of the Midlands saw a good snowfall.
I have to agree with the level of ferocity of the block. Daytime temps for the south were -6 to -8 for some of those winters you stated. This current cold snap is a bit lame really but if it does break down next week there is still a lot of time to play for and Feb always brings the greatest opportunity - I love the Spring but I don't want to see an early one!
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I hope so joker,as a lover of cold and snow I'm only 50% happy at mo,hope you're enjoying your lot over there
Well this front moving in from France via the channel will deliver more for our area than the front we had coming in from the West yesterday. This one will possibly deepen as it heads across over the channel and give us those bigger soggy flakes. East Sussex and Kent should do well out of it.
Of course we would love it to stall over the channel near to us but it is predicted to track N - what a pity!
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Honest opinion please,am I going to see some decent snow tomoz or not,keep reading about it being marginal,hope not.I can't take another non-event
You will indeed see some decent snowfall tomorrow. I'd say 5cm to 8cm in your location by the end of Sunday.
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It's frontal snow from the SE - it's not showers
Absolutely and I urge some serious radar watching later tonight. We should see that depression starting to head across the channel by about 1-2 am (for night owls that is
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Frontal systems really developing over France now. Radar showing increasing intensity and that stuff has our name on it!
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For me the 06Z indicates the big potential for this cold spell to roll on and on.
The current set up for next week gives a continuous flow that continually undercuts us in the UK. The low pressure systems that the GFS had previously forecast as strolling across the UK next Wed/Thurs are now being programmed with much more potential for undercutting.
In my view what we are seeing is a flow would usually be a W/SW'rly zonal type flow, but the SSW and Northern blocking are combining nicely now and 'saving' us from this boredom.
7/8 days ago the GFS did at many times show milder Westerly’s for the UK today, however we are currently under an Easterly influence with snow lying across the UK.
Undercut central:
Undercut tomorrow:
undercut on Tuesday:
Undercut on Wednesday:
Increasing undercut potential next Friday:
More undercut potential next Saturday?:
The snow potential from these charts is really strong. Not least mentioning that during tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday there are pretty chunky snow events happening at different areas of the UK.
Good times.
As you say, exciting times and let's face it very interesting model watching. I mean, we could have zonal or anticyclonic gloom - both horrible. The snow potential for the UK is 10/10 and we should be thankful that conditions are just perfect. How many winters can we say that for ie a powerful SSW resulting in a cold block and numerous troughs and frontal systems one after the other crossing the country from all directions? All eyes now to the Greenland HIGH building and the depression forming over in France - some radar watching there later today is in order!
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you must have missed the gfs 00z then, it showed a powerful greenland high developing in FI and ridging well south into the atlantic, and any real change to the current pattern is still in FI so the cold spell could extend further and then be reinforced from the northeast or north. The latest gfs shows the cold block putting up a good fight against the might of the atlantic by the end of next week, any mild/less cold could be very brief indeed.
The Greenland HIGH is likely to be the key to any possible Atlantic incursion. It's going to considerably dampen the energy of the jet and although temperatures may rise into the low single digits across the southern half of Britain, it will be short and sweet with cold uppers returning quite quickly. By next weekend I don't think we will be calling it a 'warm up' at all by any standards - just a little less cold!
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Same in Eastbourne, I think we are experiencing some of the effects of orthographic lift from the Downs as it comes up The Channel and along the coast.
Coast, what's your view on that depression moving out of France on Sunday? Do you think it is likely to just skirt the extreme east of Kent and track NE?
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Not really let down because i had a feeling I'd end up with nothing, was hoping to be proven wrong
You certainly got nothing alright. Still Sunday should be your day!
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Looks like Worthing, Brighton etc will get some more heavier stuff from the sting in the tail for a while and then - fin!
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Do you know if Brighton is included on that ?
It will be if the depression moving North out of France tracks a little to the West but it is (at the moment) predicted to track N to NE. Anywhere from Eastbourne eastwards at the moment is the best spot with East Anglia probably in the bullseye.
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Sorry but been watching Net weathers paid radar all morning and it has clearly and obviously decayed quite substantially. It hasnt all disapeared so all hope is not lost for everyone who hasnt had any :-)
I concur. The front has weakened for the past few hours now and clearly evident on the radar. Latest BBC forecast has also confirmed this. All eyes now on the track of the depression on Sunday in France.
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where do you think
Confidence is low for the track of that depression - it may miss the SE altogether. Best to wait for the updates.
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Still moderate snow here, whereabouts are you in Lewes?
South Malling.
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The front is definitely weakening as it moves further NE. Very light snowfall here now and totals not as high as I would have expected.
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Very painful viewing for us in the East!
Don't be greedy, you'll get plenty more in the next 72 hrs
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Really hammering down now. I think we are going to do well here in East Sussex and West Kent because the winds are now swinging Southerly and pushing what's out in the channel towards us too. Radar clearly showing that stuff slightly swinging our way - with deep echos!
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You know something is wrong with the GFS when you get charts like these:
We have known for years that the GFS has proven to be unreliable in the long-term and the European models more reliable particularly in wintertime. Personally, I would ignore the GFS past T+72 and stick to the ECM, UKMET etc.
Again, what are the chances of this Atlantic incursion occurring? Probably less than 20%.
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Heavy snow in Brighton now, big flakes :-)
Are you in the center or up on the higher outskirts?
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John Hammond:
"The computers are almost unanimous - we're in for the long haul."
......and Piers Corbyn is right yet again!
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Amazing to see how this front has developed as it moves east. Last night, as it was just coming into Cornwall, it was quite a narrow band.
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Chucking it down now, huge flakes going sideways!
Southampton Airport is closed.
Hope this lasts all day and yah-boo sucks to all the pr***s who moan on about the country grinding to a halt - this is AWESOME!!!!!
Certainly looks like the Southampton area is getting hammered. Enjoy.
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For any Australians!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They can keep their 40 deg C!
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North Kent made 2c today with dew point -1 all day here, I have ice n frost all day plus a few icicles holding and growing since yesterday !
I highly doubt we will see rain ! So long as dew point remains 0 or below we should be sorted !
Stay safe all x
METO going for snowfall only including the extreme coastal areas in the eastern half of the country (yellow warning now covering coastal fringes). No chance of rain/sleet in our neck of the woods now due to low dp and air temps, as confirmed by S Murr.
).
!
London and South East Regional Discussion - 20th January 2013 - 06z onwards
in Regional
Posted
Surprising how far West and NW this front is delivering.