JL23

Radar looking lively to the south west will it reach us??

Snow reported over Shropshire now - maybe of interest for southern members. Does anybody know the predicted timing of the band hitting us??

Reports of over 12 inches and widespread blizzard conditions over mid Wales at the moment. Grrr hurry up snow!

The band is intensifying as it moves NE but it is where it stalls that is the important thing and is worrying me. Will it reach the North West?? or just stall over the midlands??

Met office Amber warning is valid from 2pm so it looks like a mid afternoon return of snowfall to the south of the region looks likely - still not sure about any accumalating snow through after this mornings let down of blizzard conditions and 1-2cm of slush to show for it!

Yeah realise that now I was looking at a radar from early this morning - any views on the timing it will arrive here? Wrexham/ Mold / Flint etc... recording between 6-10inches - lucky lot 1cm of slush here sigh...

It looks like its going to miss us though- or am I reading the radar wrongly??

What are our chances for later Ian?

Do you think we may be in for a better chance of anything settling tonight??

I am not sure, would be great if it was but I am forever sceptical after about 3 hours of heavy snow this morning and only 1cm of melting slush 15cm? hmmmm.

Most of the snowfall is now easing across the region - now only snow grains here in South Cheshire. One to watchth though is the area of heavy rain/sleet/snow moving up from the south west that is due to be with us according to the GFS by the afternoon also some on the Wales thread beleive the very heavy snowfall over N. Ireland at the moment may well be dragged southeast into parts of the region later on but that remains to be seen. Any snow later on is likely to be more substantial due to lower dew points. Hope this helps

12z GFS an upgrade by the looks of things Fri afternoon onwards after a marginal sleety wobble across the west of the region mid morning.

Interesting - these models never agree - somewhere south of Carlisle and North of Birmingham is going to get the biggest pasting all the models seem to show something different though. I would still say 5-15cm widely over lower levels though.

NAE precipitation does look although more widespread generally lighter than the 6z - in particular for Gtr. Manchester/ South Lancs

NAE downgrade by the looks of things

You never know, odd as it seems Liverpool in particular South Liverpool running into the Wirral of all places may see the worst lowland conditions Friday with some models going for around 20-30cm for your area but Met office conservative estimates probably around 10-15cm locally 20cm. What I am worried about tommorow is rush hour it could be absolute chaos if the timings are right

Yeah I hope we see a decent 10cm at least, perhaps more for your area due to elevation. I am supposed to be going up to see family who live very close to the Cat and Fiddle road on Friday night but judging by the looks of things I might be safer staying at home!

Stoke could be if all goes to plan one of the worst hit/ sweet spot areas 15-25cm depending on altitude for you I think. How much do you think South Cheshire will get Chess??

Their graphic forecast are rubbish and unreliable anyway - but I do agree with you over snow depth variation - Manchester / Manchester Airport will see lying snow 5-10cm compared to 10cm-20cm perhaps for Stoke but lying disrutpive snow never the less.

Yeah he might be right for North Cheshire but us in South east Cheshire should see at least a similar scenario to the 18th Jan that gave about 10cms here.

A bit of a pessimistic assesment - I know the shadow effect may well in the worst case scenario limit the snow depths in these areas to 5-10cm but a temporary covering are you kidding??!

I think we have to have patience the M.O have a huige job on their hands placing councils, power suppliers, schools, hospitals etc.... right across the N. West / much of Northern England and the Midlands. - power outages may well be an issue particularly over higher ground.

Amber warnings are also being issued to reflect the increased risk of disruption in parts of Northern Ireland, the Midlands, North Wales and northern England on Friday. Don't worry ambers on the way.

Yeah the rain shadow is concerning, we in the south of Cheshire have the added issue of the Welsh mountains as well but given the forecast intensitry of the precipitation I think 10-15cm at least is possible.

I would probably expect Amber warnings - low level 10-15cm locally and over high ground 25-30cm for the majority of the N. West Friday but if M.O forecasters such as Ian F are going for up to 75cm over the North of Wales areas such as the pennines and the Peak District could well be placed into Red Warning criteria. I doubt they will place the major cities of the N. West under red but you never know! Regardless It is looking likely to be a very nasty day indeed road chaos, school closures the lot - a repeat of the 5th Jan 2010 - maybe even worse just truly exceptional stuff for mid March!