WhiteFox

A truly memorable winter all round! The last widespread White Christmas in 1981, certainly in terms of lying snow. The noticeable thing about the start of January 1981 is the proximity of the cold and mild air masses. Looking at the 850hPa for January 1st 1982 the block is beginning to establish with large amounts of cold pooling to the north and North East: By the 3rd January, the chart may look a bit concerning to inexperienced watchers with what could be called Bartlett High to the south and mild South Westerly winds pushing in from the Atlantic. Of course, the Artic High is just beginning to assert it's influence and height is alreay up to 1050MB over Greenland: Once again the boundary between the mild and very cold air is stark: And by the time we reach January 6th 1982, the cold air has easily won the battle with milder air: For me the 850hPA temperature chart for the 7th illustrates just what a huge difference three hundred miles can make. Take a look at the 0oC Isotherm over Northern Italy and how close it is to the -15 isotherm: In terms of weather, I know the statistics have been covered many times on this site, but they never fail to impress: 30-50cms of snow fell across Wales and the Midlands on the 8th and 9th as mild air battled the cold air. Perhaps the best example of the much fabled cold v mild battle? Braemar recorded a temperature of -27.2, an equal record on the morning of the 10th. The maximum was -19.1oC a record low maximum. Brrr! The maximum for Benson was -10 on the 13th January (my birthday!). Personally I remember that January for the depth of snow. I cannot remember deeper snow than we had that year. I know other members have posted a few shots of snowdrifts from that January. I wonder if we'll ever see the like again, seeing as even in the fabled harsh winters of the late seventies/early eighties it was exceptional? Another memory is of icicles forming on eaves. They were so big we had sword fights against each other using them! I also remember freezing some of them and getting them out in the summer. It is also the only time I have seen -15oC forecast over Southern England. I don't think I've even noticed -15 forecast anywhere in Britain since then! A particular feature of this spell was the keenness of models of the day to end the cold spell. Milder air was forecast to take over a couple of times; in fact the blizzard of the 8th/9th was supposed to spell the return to milder air! Definitely an exceptional month, the severity of which is not truly reflected in the final CET of 2.6oC. In fact, January 1997 recorded a CET of 2.5 and I cannot remember anything about that January! Ironically, by the 6th February, a Bartlett had become established over Europe, which just goes to show that it isn't a modern phenomenon!

I was trying to work out the date of a surprise snowfall, I think in December 1999. I'd been in Nottingham, ironically bemoaning the lack of snowfall in the South to my friend, and was driving back to Reading on a Saturday night. As I approached Daventry it started snowing lightly. By the time I reached Banbury and the M40 it was snowing moderately. At the time I think a front had stalled over the south and turned to snow giving about an inch or two. I don't think it had been forecast. Looking at the charts it may have been around this time: Do you have any records of this one Mr Data?

I'll defeinitely take a look. It's interesting going back through the old charts. May need some help once I go back past the early eighties though!

Posted far too early anyway; Completely the wrong button... More to do yet! January 6th 2001: A very unsettled start to 2001 with a succession of Low Pressures battering the UK. This followed on from a very cold end to December 2000 with widespread snowfall between Christmas and the New Year. Luckily, it doesn't look like this pattern will be repeated this year! The corresponding 850hPa chart shows -2 to -4 air over much of the country. Incidentally, an extremely brief Easterly followed on January 11th, after which a high pressure stationed itself over Central Europe and sat there teasing us with SE winds and no real cold. Our good friend the PFJ prevented any ridging to Greenland and stopped and really cold air reaching us. Sound familiar? Let's hope this does not happen this January: Fast forward a year to January 6th 2002 and we have an all too familiar picture for the even larger teapot: High pressure sitting over the near continent, low pressures steaming through the gap between Iceland and Greenland, and not a touch of frost in sight! This followed on once again from a very cold end to December. January 2002 was very mild overall recording a final CET of 5.5. Incidentally, the rest of winter was no better: February was exceptionally mild at times and recorded a CET of 7.0, a full 2.8oC above average. A classic example of how a persistent Bartlett can completely wreck any chances for a cold winter. I've just counted 42 days of mild South to South Westerly winds from the chart shown to the end of February 2002! Out of 53 days that's a pretty zonal flow... The only exceptions are very brief North-Westerlies and one very short Easterly. 2003. What a difference a year makes! I don't really remember this one myself, but it seems we had a slack Easterly flow on this date in 2003: -6 to -8 air is shown over much of the country, and the follwing day the -10 isotherm makes a brief foray into East anglia and Kent. A cold pool over Europe desperately tries to reach us, but eventually the High pressure collapses back into.... you guessed it, a Bartlett! After this we settle into a familiar run of South Westerlies with regular Low Pressures passing by. The difference this year is the occasional system making it into Scandinavia and brining a Northerly toppler; something which was not achieved at all in 2002! I also think the infamous M11 "whiteout" occurred around about this time. February brought about a couple of attempts at Easterlies, but the cold air typically passed to the south of us... January 6th 2004 brings us another quasi-Bartlett. Not quite a classical Bartlett, beacuse the SLP chart shows an area of high pressure over Western Russia: A fairly strong Siberian High is shown lurking over WEstern Russia throughout January, but as so often seems to be the case in recent years, the Atlantic is just too active for it to progress Westwards. Late January 2004 also brings the infamous "thundersnow" event, which seems to have impressed everyone except those in Abingdon and Nottingham (where I was in hospital at the time!). Shortly after this, the situation collapses into a classic Bartlett: At this point I'm sure many people would write off the rest of winter, but for the first time in a few years the Bartlett High migrates Northwards over the UK and eventually travels far enough North to allow a brief Easterly into the far south. After this, it sets up in the Mid Atlantic, allowing Northerly topplers for a while, including one lasting a few days towards the end of the month. This is the first time I can remember any sort of mid-atlantic block becoming established during winter months for some time. Finally, January 6th 2005. More repeats: Not much needs to be said about last January other than very Zonal and remember overnight minima in the region of 13oC? Of course, the following February was interesting... All in all, not much to get depressed about so far this year. Past winters have seen cold periods between Christmas and New Year followed by very bland zonality and Bartlett Highs for weeks. If we get another Easterly this week, then it certainly looks like a wholly different setup to the even larger teapot.

Much has been made of the even larger teapot debate and whether this year will buck the trend. It's certainly been interesting, but some people will never be satisfied! In the spirit of adventure I thought I'd compare every January 6th for this century with projections for this Friday. Starting with January 6th 2000: A very mild January 6th for 2000. This followed on from an average December which brought a stormy Christmas Day. The corresponding 850hPa chart shows the +5 isotherm lapping the East coast with all but North-West Scotland and Ireland under positive 850hPa air.

Quality stuff and thanks for the effort! Will be playing around with the figures quite a bit methinks...

What does one normally write in one of these things? Is a blog a diary, or is it a place for posting opinions? I'm undecided. My life isn't interesting enough to serialise; it's unlikely the Sunday Times will be offering me a five figure sum to hear about my trip to Hillingdon on Thursday. So what is an average day for Whitefox? Well, the alarm goes off at 7.30 (it's only a short drive to Hillingdon, should only take 45 minutes) and I wisely decide to press snooze. I haven't had breakfast for about a year now. That's not to say I haven't eaten for a year of course... I do occasionally have a Cadbury's cream egg for breakfast. It's quicker that a boiled egg and bread tastes much better when dipped into the creamy fondant centre. Just what is a "creamy fondant centre" anyway? Is fondant a derivative of fondue? I have images of some Swiss factory full of Lederhosen wearing moustachiod Swissmen pouring fondued sugar and E234 plus emulsifier into a chocolate eggs whilst yodelling to themselves and occasionally stopping to sip from the barrels hanging around their St Bernard's neck, not that I'm stereotyping of course. Talking of fondue, I had chocolate fondue in Moscow once. In typically Russian fashion, I was provided with pieces of fruit to dip into molten chocolate. After loosening my belt another notch, we finished the meal with some "cannabis vodka". Those crazy Russians! Mind you, when you get frostbite from opening your window you need something to warm your cockles. I digress. I figure an extra ten minutes in bed is priceless and rarely make it to breakfast. I'm someone who never, ever has a problem getting back to sleep. In fact, I have been known to set my alarm for an extra five minutes sleep in the morning. I don't understand people who say they can't get back to sleep once they're awake: "Once I'm awake that's it." "What is?" "I can't get back to sleep." "That's not normal." "6.30 is the best time of the day." "For sleeping, yes." Strange people! Talking of alarms, when I was at university, my alarm once went off for half an hour and I didn't wake up. I only finally awoke when the other students in my halls started hammering on the door to tell me that my alarm was going off. I suppose it wouldn't have been so bad if it wasn't 4pm. Anyway, when the glue from my eyes finally clears I realise with a sense of disappointment that once again my alarm clock is telling the truth and it is actually time to get up. Somehow I hope that the sun had decided to rise about an hour earlier than usual to make me think I had to get up, only to realise I could actually stay in bed. There are in fact only two things better than realising you can stay in bed for another hour: sex and heavy snow. The next thought to cross my mind involves debating whether or not it is actually Saturday. Sadly this doesn't happen anywhere near often enough. Usually only once a week. Given that it's currently very cold outside, I don't mind it too much though. I'm weird and actually relish the thought of using my credit card to de-ice the car. Such weather has it's downsides though. Driving along the M4 towards London I'm taken in by just how beatiful the world looks on a very frosty morning with a clear blue sky and white everywhere. However, the M4 heading towards London in morning rush hour is not the place for such day-dreaming and I'm brought back to my senses by a foreign lorry driver who has decided that my car is not actually in the middle lane, so he can just pull out. Fortunately my years of experience have taught me to watch out for such things. That and writing off a car last year.... A Polish lorry driver "merged" into my car on the M25 last year in heavy traffic. He started pushing me across into the fast lane. I'm convinced he wouldn't have noticed me if I hadn't fired a rocket launcher at him. Actually, one part of that tale is not entirely true. Where was I? Oh yes, by this point just getting onto the M25. On one Friday afternoon I was chugging round very slowly. At one point I was stationary in the fast lane for a couple of minutes having a private Karaoke to Queen's Greatest Hits when I haapened to notice the most beautiful blonde woman in the car behind. I was so taken by her that I was shockled to find that the cars in front had vanished into the distance. Talking of which, a friend of mine told me he was in the car with his dad one time when they joiend the end of a stationary queue on the motorway. He looked in the rear-view mirror and spotted a car which seemed to be going too fast. As a precaution he pulled over onto the hard shoulder, and the car went past him, straight into the back of the car in front... Not bad! Anyway, I eventually got to work, went home, drank some Beaujolais Nouveau and went to bed. Exciting huh?

What does "Cold zonality" refer to? Is it a particular synoptic setup?

Many thanks to everybody. Highly informative and interesting. Although it would be nice to get a 1987/1991 style winter I won't hold my (condensed!) breath...

For anybody waiting for the rain band, I've just driven from Nottingham to Reading and can give a bit of an update. Thin-high cloud from Nottingham as far as Daventry. Moon visible, but blurred. Temperature rose from just below freezing in Nottingham city centre to 2.5oc in Daventry. From Daventry to Banbury, cloud thickening, signs of precipitation by the M40. Temperature 3.5oc. High Wycombe, recent rain, temperature 3.5. Now back in Reading where it's been raining/drizzling all day, temperature currently at 3.5oc.

I was going to ask why the winters have become so "snowless" over the past fifteen years. As ever, TWS has just about answered every question! Does anybody know what the synoptic setups were for the cold winters? I remember the 1981 (I think it was 1981 or 1982) winter when temperatures down here in the south East plummeted to -18oc overnight. I also remember the huge icicles hanging from drainpipes and using them to have mock sword fights with my brothers. Another favourite was pouring buckets of water onto footpaths which would then set hard within a few minutes creating a perfect Ice-rink. We moved over from N Ireland in 1980 and our first Christmas in Reading was almost tropical. My mum still remembers us walking around in t-shirts. The last really severe winter in the South East which I can remember was 1987. Easterly winds brought snow showers in for a few days followed by a general spell of snow overnight on a Tuesday (funny how I can still remember the exact day!). I was a member of the weather club at secondary school at the time and the teacher in charge of the club came into our science lesson to explain how the dry, cold air from the East was picking up warmth and moisture from the North Sea thus giving us heavy snow. That same day there was a gas leak and we were off school for three days. I remember taking my younger sister to school on a sledge during that period. I can also remember a couple of occasions during the early eighties when the diesel in the car of our neighbours froze! In the mid-nineties I moved to Nottingham to go to university. I can remember each winter! 1995 was a big disappointment. I think we had one cold spell with snow right at the end of winter in March. 1996 was much better. There was snow in January which didn't last too long. However, in February, we had a spell of North Easterlies. On one particular Wednesday I remember that Nottingham Forest were playing at home to Tottenham Hotspur in an FA Cup replay. East Midlands news had a reporter at the ground saying there had been a few snow showers during the day but nothing too serious. I opened the front door at about 7PM and saw heavy snow swirling around on the road outside. This settled a little bit and left the classic "two black lines" down the road where cars left tyremarks. The real event happened about an hour or so later. Another shower hit and the snow came down really heavy. I was on a bus going up a hill and the bus was really struggling to make it. We ended up having to walk back home as the police had closed the road back to my house which was on a very small hill. Back at the football they had to abandon the match as the ref could not see either linesman! Anyone watching Sky Sports that night would have seen pictures of the commentator looking like a snowman. They still show the picture occasionally when looking back at classic moments. Looking at the radar later showed a finger of bright echoes travelling across Noittingham for about an hour and a half. A few miles North and a few miles South missed out completely. Is there any reason why we don't get these winters any more (I mean the really cold ones like in the early eighties)? I know people point to global warming, but surely the synoptic setup could still occur to give us a lengthy period of cold? I can remember a few Mays recently when I've looked at the charts and seen a high pressure last over Scandinavia for weeks and wishing that it was January or February. A bit long-winded I'm afraid...