Bill4321
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Another blog post from Simon Lee. He is well worth a follow if you're into the stratosphere and do the Twitter thing.
Simon’s Stratosphere Watch #2 | Simon Lee
SIMONLEEWX.COMWhen I wrote the first SSW blog on the evening of Tuesday 22 February, I did not expect to be writing the next one so soon after with such increased uncertainty. But there are many aspects to the way the...-
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I thought that this may interest some of you on this thread..
Simon’s Stratosphere Watch #1 | Simon Lee
SIMONLEEWX.COMWelcome to a new blog series! Yes, the title was indeed chosen to fit the SSW acronym. In these posts, I intend to give a brief summary of the state of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex and the latest...-
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13 hours ago, minus10 said:
Lets hope Gfs/Ecm are nearer the mark re next Friday as many of the other models are not showing this..
Gfs op in middle of its ens for 11th so some support
Trying to locate ecm ens graphs on meteocile but cannot find. Be grateful if someone could point me to the right place ...thanks
They're here, just click your location et voila! No use if you're north of York though..
Meteociel - Diagrammes ensemblistes ECMWF/CEP
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRmeteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...-
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As it is so quiet in here I thought that I would stitch together the z500's for the two famous cold spells in our part of the world. I find them quite hypnotic in the way that the Atlantic gets batted away for weeks on end.
First off 1947 - Cold throughout and bitter from 21st Jan through to 10th March. This one takes us from the 19th Jan to the 12th March..
Winter of 1946–47 in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORGNext of course 1962/3. This takes one takes us from Christmas day 1962 right through to 6th March 1963.
Winter of 1962–63 in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORGI hope that some of you enjoy
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45 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:
Anyone know here I can find the map that shows how much rainfall has fallen in each park of the uk for January please? Netweather usually do one but I can't find it, ta
It's been incredibly dry in the south for several weeks (Devon)
I think that the meto maps linked below should give you what you want. The January map isn't available yet though.
UK actual and anomaly maps
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKMaps of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years-
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1 hour ago, Nick B said:
It's hard to think of any extended period (i.e. more than a week or two) over the last 13 years or so when the outer reaches, days 8-10-16, would offer so much and then the weather would continue to deliver so little.
There comes a timeframe (and it changes depending on pattern changes etc.) where there should be a loss of confidence in the output (e.g. beyond x days is 'FI'). That's what I find the ensembles useful for. Not to pick out individual ones which may be pleasing to the eye, rather to see how the det run matches the control, where it sits within the ensembles, whether there are trends of clusters appearing, and importantly, where the divergence in those ensembles becomes more marked.
It's been clear that for some reason, that timeframe this winter has been closer to day 1 than some posters on here have perhaps expected or been used to. Hence the dashed expectations. It might be worthwhile, if people really wish to follow the models without studying the upstream and background drivers, to
1. First, wait until the ensemble runs are there, then check them to see where that point of divergence starts occurring (i.e. where do the lines start really scattering into spaghetti);
2. Then look for trends of clusters in the last three days' output of the same time for the same model, i.e. ECM 0z with 0z from the past two days... where do the runs really start disagreeing with each other and two or three days after that date are there clusters appearing? GFS 12z with GFS 12z from the last couple of days too, same exercise. That may possibly show which new trends are gaining ground;
3. Acknowledge that, beyond two or three days after that scatter point, the usefulness is watered down even more, so that what appears thereafter from Fantasy Island to what could be a new acronym, PD (Pipe Dream)! While noticing there may be attractive scenarios flaunting themselves, don't give them the trust they don't currently deserve (unless you enjoy mental self-flagellation, in which case, have at it!).
4. Absolutely use the method which John Holmes suggests (as well as mushyman too, now) - thank you both! - with the 6-10 and 8-14 charts (understand how they work first)! It really does give a reasonable idea of the direction in which things are probably travelling, and can be used to temper expectations! Bear in mind, if they are changing (i.e. a pattern change is being forecast), then hold back those expectations until they start settling down again.
The models have often appeared to want to deliver at ca. 10 days so much in this region this winter, which for those chasing cold has been doubly hard, when the end result of the weather has proved them wrong at that range. Clearly, there is something about the background factors which the models are not equipped to deal with. That's absolutely not the fault of the people coding the modelling, if we are indeed in an era where e.g. the Hadley cell is expanded and its influence is causing the Euro high to be more of a feature than has been the case in the past. It's an area which is likely the subject of ongoing research by climate scientists and the findings will likely support tweaks to the modelling itself to deal with that situation.
Who knows whether that is a new normal or just part of the current dance of climate oscillations or indeed a new climatic regime? There's a growing body of literature pointing in that direction, it seems. I'm left with the impression that the current period of the last decade or so hasn't seen as many long midwinter severe cold and snowy weather spells such as I experienced in the 70's - early 90's in the UK. That absolutely does not preclude the chance of a winter with such a spell again at some point, but it may mean our chances are growing slimmer over time. Not much fun to acknowledge for those of us who may still enjoy seeing powdery snow transforming the outside world into a winter wonderland occasionally.
If it's any consolation, those of us living in continental NW Europe have seen even less than those of you in the UK and Ireland this winter. It's not over, but it won't be long before I start really looking forward to warm spring sunshine, the smell of blossom, spring birdsong and the lighter colour of early spring leaves budding on the trees.
In here recently there has been some excellent posts for people like me who are just starting to look at weather models. This is one of them. Thank you @Nick B
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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Interesting, infact it is a bit of odd that because storm naming systems are based on seasons, (most famous being the Atlantic hurricane seasons) so the alphabet resets at the start of the next season. I wonder why the Danish are different with this?
Makes you wonder how long ago was "A" was?
According to Danish Wiki it was 28th Oct 2013. Given the location of Denmark I'm not too surprised that they don't get many!
Navngivne storme i Danmark - Wikipedia, den frie encyklopædi
DA.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Anyone else baffled how this storm came to be storm Malik? The last European named storm was Elpis so what happened to F, G,H, I, J, K, L ?
It seems that as Denmark are likely to be the worst affected they get to choose the name. Their last named storm was Laura (12th March 2020) and Malik is the next on their list.
Storm Malik named by Danish Met Service
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKA low pressure system which has been named Storm Malik by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) will bring high winds and wet weather to the northern UK on Saturday.-
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I'm also on Firefox and this has been happening to me too. It's not an FF add on issue as the problem remains if I run FF in safe mode. I tried another Invision Community forum and no problems there; it's only this forum and only certain threads. All a bit weird
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Looking at the models for the end of the month and it's nice to see a bit of consistency for a chance to see things getting a bit chillier from the north..
GEM:
JMA:
NASA/GEOSEA5
CFS (I know, I know..)
GFS (a couple of days late to the party)
ECM (A party? What party?)
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21 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Sorry- CC is climate change.
@Catacol Thank you
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It's not often that we go through a whole GFS run at this time of year with barely a hint of snow in North West Europe. But here we are.
0-192H
192-384H
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2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
I believe it means climate change
D'oh! Thanks
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26 minutes ago, Catacol said:
What is rare, I think, is the strength of this destructive interference. The historical record shows that eQBO and Nina should bring cold...but in recent years we have seen strong pacific activity in winter and I wonder if CC is generally creating winters with more Nino type atmospheric patterns than we would expect. If this is the case, and CC is changing things including knock on historic factors you list here such as an expanded Hadley Cell, then what are we looking for to bring UK cold? We will need many years to test any such theories....but I continue to maintain that we need an SSW these days to produce the potential for a flow reversal, and if we want amplification to produce decent ridging in the same general context then our Nino atmosphere needs a Nino ENSO base state. So - for next season I'll be looking for a weak Nino to complement the trend towards active Pacific patterns in Nov - Jan thereby producing constructive patterns to drive high levels of heat flux. And the same constructive relationship might help propel a block high enough to drag in some continental cold.
Hi @Catacol or any other helpful person.. Please forgive the silly question from me but what is CC? I'm trying to learn as much as I can from here but this has baffled me! I'm guessing it's global warming and something to do with Carbon(?) but can't quite put my finger on it..
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Hi Guys
I've been following the various MOD threads for a long time so thought I'd finally post a chart. The NASA/GOES5 10 day chart has the high more towards the north west possibly Iceland bound allowing colder air into the south east. I'm not sure if the model is rated on here but maybe worth keeping an eye on
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Yes! The bookmark button is back and the error code has gone. Thank you so much Paul!
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Logging off and on hasn't fixed it. I get the following when trying to access https://www.netweather.tv/forum/bookmarks/
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Hi @Paul
I'm not using any specific theme and on the desktop. I was able to bookmark up until just prior to Xmas so it's a fairly new problem. I will try logging in and out to see if that works.. just a mo..
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9 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:
A chart like the one above shows two variables:
1) The surface pressure, expressed in hPa and made visible with the white isobars.
2) The height of the level where the air pressure is equal to 500 hPa. This is expressed in decameters (dam) and made visible with the colours. See the legend at the bottom of the chart.The last variable is what we refer to when talking about "heights".
Higher values (higher heights) mean that the 500hPa level is found higher up, and therefore there is 'more air' below it, it's a thicker layer of air (usually warmer too). The more yellow and orange, the higher the heights.
Lower heights are represented by the blues and purples. In those places the layer of air is thinner (usually colder) and therefore the 500 hPa level is already found at a lower height.On average this 500 hPa surface is higher as you go further South towards the equator (obvious on charts), because warmer air has a lower density and takes up more space than cold, dense air.
The tricky thing is that often low pressure systems at the surface are associated with a "low height" of the 500hPa level, but not always.
And high surface pressure is often associated with a "high height" of the 500hPa level, but not always.If they go together, they are more powerful. If they don't they are weaker features.
For example, a "wedge" is an area of higher surface pressure that does not have a really high 500 hPa level. It is weaker than a real High, because it is not backed up by that thick layer of air, so to speak.Hope this helps!
Hi guys, sorry to drop this here but I wanted to bookmark this post as it is very helpful.. yet the bookmark button has disappeared! I am also getting an "error code: 2bookmarknoperm" when trying to open https://www.netweather.tv/forum/bookmarks/ to find info about bookmarks. Not sure if I'm being utterly stupid here or if there's a problem with the latest forum code?
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Newhaven 14:40
T: 0.8
DP: -5.4
Wind: Slack, ENENW ish. I dunno.
This cold spell for me has been a bit rubbish to be fair. I made the mistake of being taken in by the hyperbole on the mod thread and waiting for 10, 20 or 30cm of snow to arrive. Instead yeah, I got snow falling from time to time which was lovely but apart from a couple of patchy cm of laying snow on Monday morning nothing. Probably I am being greedy but for me if I can't go out and take some photographs as in 2009, 2010, 2013 or 2018 it's all a bit boring.
Having said that the temperature remained below freezing for three days and the dew points hovered around -5 so I knew that anything falling from the sky wouldn't be marginal but be snow. That doesn't happen so often these days so a reason to be cheerful!
I don't post much on this forum but would like to say that seeing your pictures and video's from around the area have been great and there has been some funny moments. My favourites are..
It's a whiteout! Oh no it's not, oh yes it is..
You need to learn how to read a radar Paul..
That blob which may come your way is actually Thanet wind farm..
Take care everybody and keep smiling
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Hello from Newhaven
14:40 - T steady at 1.1 but the DP has shot up from -4.5 to -2.2 over the course of the last hour as the humidity rises.
There has been light snow over the last half hour or so which is slowly getting heavier. I'm quite interested in the heavier lot to the north east which seems to be heading my way but who knows
If it does get to me I'll find an excuse to pop to the shop for something random to buy. If it misses I'll curl out my bottom lip and sulk for a bit
Have a great day everybody
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A biting wind here in Newhaven with the temperature slowly edging downward from a max of -0.3 to a current of -0.9 and a dew point of -5.8. We had light to moderate snow much of yesterday afternoon and again this morning. Total snow a whopping 2-3cm'ish but hard to tell as it's been blown about too much.
Not really expecting much more but not complaining as it's been great to see the snowy pics from others in the area.
Have fun
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1 minute ago, Thunderstruck said:
Yep, named after a pub at the top!
Thanks @Thunderstruck and @Angel Wings Bread and Cheese hill is a great name for somewhere, just behind Bacon Butty Boulevard in my list of favourite place names
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14 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:
Yeah, that’s what I heard too, with Bread and Cheese Hill also being blocked. Good thing it isn’t a normal rush hour out there!
LOL. Is Bread and Cheese Hill an actual place?
Please say yes.
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
There's some good stuff on that site, thanks for sharing!