[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Just to let you know it's snowing in Ashbourne and it's sticking x

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Hi sorry if I've missed the answer to this but a couple of people have mentioned the jet stream powering up again with the power off the states , how will this affect the block that's forming , will it wipe it out and return us to the constant barrage of lows and rain ?

Sorry if someone has answered this question already

TF x

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Mr Murr

What's your thoughts on the models downgrading the cold over the next few days or indeed upgrading !

Thanks

TF

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Just a quickie from me just popped in for a quick gander at the models and to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and hopefully a Snowy New Year

Take care everyone

TF xxxxx

[Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Hi

On the model charts how can you tell if the energy is going over the top or underneath ?

Sorry to sound stupid and it's probably really obvious .

Thanks

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

It seems to me from a simple novice point of view that the charts just keep getting colder and better and pushing the high further back into FI (don't shout if I'm wrong)

Also can I just mention Old Met Man and his posts from last night were really informative what a star he is .

[Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >]

As summer sun said earlier in a post the NAO is showing signs of going positive how likely is that to happen ?

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111112/ECH1-240.GIF?11-0Snow for Scotland & the north- ( sleet mix at ground 0M)All eyes on retrograde block into Canadian Maritimes -S

Sorry but what's a retrograde block ? And what effects would it have for us ?Thanks

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

I think it's the 12z : -)

Why is that ? Is it because it gathers more data as it goes from run to run ?

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

Frosty in your opinion which is the most accurate GFS run is it the 0z or the 12z ?

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

I'm sure most of us would love a Steve Murr BOOM ... I know I would î•

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

As a newbie I'm totally confused some say maybe a cold shot mid November some argue no such thing , it's very confusing , some of the charts posted look ok for a cold spell then some don't I suppose it's just different people different opinions but It is very confusing . The only way that I definitely know if there's a true hint of a cold spell is when Mr Steve puts a post on ... Then I take notice !!

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

Sorry but what would influence would an -AO have on our winter in the UK ... What is a -AO ?

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

So what was the pattern in the weather and models pacific side and uk side that gave that great winter snow in 2010 ?

Thanks BA for answering

[Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013]

If there was to be Ridging on the Pacific side what does that mean for winter In the Uk ?

Is it that it would mean blocking of the Alantic thus allowing the Polar air to flood down ?

Thanks

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13 16z----->]

Absolutely zilch here no wind it was actually windier yesterday in the daytime kept waking in the night to check and nothing diddly squat .

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps]

Well I've just got in from a cracking game of hockey can't grumble about the weather plenty of mud to slide in could do with it being a little cooler I do prefer my hockey to be on cold autumn winter mornings but overall not bad weather today

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

But hasn't the GFS got the polar vortex on the move to a nasty place ?

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

Hi SS I do believe the purple blob is the vortex !!!

Probably get slatted now (holding my breath)

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

I was wondering that same as TF where on the chart randomly picked does it show the vortex? is it the blob of purple?

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

Thanks Nick last year the polar vortex got blasted into pieces which I think I'm right in saying helped our winter turn cold are thee any signs of this happening again this year or is it too early to tell ? I understand model and weather forecasting is not very good way out in FI but as with everything there must be a certain pattern that may be showing as to what the winter may hold !

And the massive cold pool just north of the uk why are people getting excited about it will the Azores high fall away back to Spain etc allowing that cold pool to fall over us is this why people are getting a little giddy ?

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

You either want it to the east/ne or stuck to the west of Greenland. You sometimes get splits in the PV in this case one to the west of Greenland and one to the east, which leaves nice room for a Greenland high. Definitely not over Greenland as that turns into a horror show for cold and snow lovers.

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

Hi sorry for my ignorance I'm just getting used to the models could someone tell me where the vortex is best placed to aid a cold winter for the uk ? Is it Greenland ?

[Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13]

he aint far off the money in my opinion my dear boy. Watch for our ferind the Canadian vortex.

What influence would the Canadian vortex have on our weather ?

[Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->]

Hi tamara

The snow and ice distribution thats accuring that you spoke off what effect will that have on the winter in the UK

Thanks