Paul

A fresh thread as the 12z's roll out this afternoon. This is still a hunt for cold thread, so some extra chat is ok, but as always the theme has to still be model related discussion. The discussion has become very ugly at times in recent days, which is sad to see. It's a minority of people involved in these things, but a vocal one. It's perhaps a sign of the times on the internet generally, that being respectful and reasonable is sometimes optional, but it's not something that will ever be acceptable on here. So, those who aren't prepared to follow the forum guidelines, will, unfortunately, have their posts removed and ultimately will also find their accounts restricted. The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them. If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment (This thread was the short range model discussion). You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a post which you think would work well for both. Thank you, and happy cold hunting!

I'm locking this one now, fresh thread here:

Anyway, we know recycling is far better than just binning stuff, so let's revisit Icon later and move on from from bingate to see what the rest of the 12z's do.

Once you join the group, it'll be the second to top section on the forum front page (below the recent posts bit).

The London, SE and East Anglia thread officially has a new home, please head over to the group to join https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/194-se-london-and-east-anglia-weather-discussion/

A fresh thread for the new group, and plenty to be chatting about as we head towards Christmas.

Welcome to the new home of the Southeast, London and East Anglia regional area. In here, there'll be the normal ongoing thread about the weather and everyones daily lives in the region, but there is now the option for multiple threads (for instance for weather events, stats, model chat or whatever else), there's a photo gallery available, and also a member map. To post into the group, you will need to join, but that's a one-click process and everyone is welcome. Please let us know how you find it, and if you have any ideas for improving the group.

Sometimes, for personal reasons or whatever else, you may not wish to read the posts from another member. And when that happens, there's an option on the community to ignore another user. On a desktop/laptop, there are a couple of options for this. The first, quickest way is to point your mouse over the users name, their profile details will pop up and at the bottom of that is the option to ignore them. The other route on desktop, is to click your username at the top of any page and from the menu that pops out, select ignored users (under settings). On mobile or tablet, you'll need to click the hamburger menu top right of the screen, choose account, then choose ignored users. Regardless of the route you take, you'll end up on the ignore users page: https://community.netweather.tv/ignore/ From there, you can put the users name it (if it's not been auto-filled for you) and can choose to ignore their posts, messages, mentions or signature. If at any point you want to stop ignoring or modify the ignore settings for a user, you can go back to the ignore users page, select them and make the changes you require.

Good evening SE'ers - tomorrow will see a change for this region as you become the next one to move over to our new regional group system. That'll mean more space to spread out, including the option for multiple threads, a SE gallery and a built in members map as a start. To give you an idea of what's to come, those in Scotland have been using the new system for a little while: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/192-scottish-weather-discussion/

Just because the team are trying to let the discussion flow in here more, that doesn't mean personal and/or sarcastic digs at one another are ok. There are a set of guidelines posted above, we all need to abide by them.

So, putting some ground rules/guidelines in place for this thread: Please don't post one liners about a model run/partial model run Please post post charts (or data from them) to back up your point of view Please remember this isn't a hunt for cold thread so the focus may solely be on the model output rather than on whether there's cold weather expected Posts can cover the longer or shorter range on the models - but please make it clear what time frame and locations you're referring to These are in addition to the usual guidelines on the forum, which can be summarised as: Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

Each run has some variation in obs etc going into it, but it's swings and roundabouts to an extent. That being said, the 06z and 18z don't stack up quite as well as the 00z and 12z on the verification stats.

Just quoting the first post of the thread, for those who may not have seen it. We have a second, slower paced model thread running, for those who want to cross post in there, or post longer summaries etc.

As per the message in the new model thread (hunt for cold version), this thread is now open to all model related discussion and not just short-range. For those who want a slower paced look at the models.

A fresh thread and a slight change in theme ready for the 12z's this afternoon. As the thread is now hunt for cold themed, some more banter is ok, but the theme of the thread is still model discussion so please bear that in mind and don't allow the thread to go off on a tangent for any length of time. If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment (This thread was the short range model discussion). You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a post which you think would work well for both. As ever, please keep it friendly - and follow the guiding principles detailed in the message above. Thank you, and happy cold hunting!

With the main 12z's about to roll, I'm going to lock this one to start a fresh thread (and slightly changed thread layout). The new one is here:

For those who didn't see it yesterday, @Nick F's latest blog is well worth a read - particularly if you want to understand more about the MJO, the part it plays and the prospects for cold this Xmas. Blocking high pressure for now, but could there be a white Christmas? WWW.NETWEATHER.TV A blocking area of high pressure will be with us through into early next week, but it looks to turn increasingly unsettled as we head into the Christmas Weekend. With cold air not far away though, we could see some...

These are still a work in progress and just being tested internally currently (a range of parameters of mogreps, plus the met office global model will be available soon). But, ignoring the slightly iffy formatting, you can see a fairly sizeable spread for London on the air pressure ensemble. So, a lot of uncertainty, to say the least. Also, for those who maybe weren't here in the summer when these were launched, there are now a free set of UKV charts available on Netweather from all 8 runs a day. UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

It's not the cream of the crop model you often seen quoted by Met Office forecasters, that's the UK based version which is much higher resolution than the global (20km version) which has been made available by them.

Thing with those charts is that they are always huge! They are taking any precipitation with any amount of frozen stuff in it and treating it all as powder snow. That's why they are always eye catching and pretty much never right.

Latest blog from @Nick F Blocking high pressure for now, but could there be a white Christmas? WWW.NETWEATHER.TV A blocking area of high pressure will be with us through into early next week, but it looks to turn increasingly unsettled as we head into the Christmas Weekend. With cold air not far away though, we could see some...

Can see the low heading further south on the met office model at 168 hours.

Brave. Look back though the model threads over the last decade and you'll see they're littered with similar 'nailed on' cold events going wrong from this sort of range and even closer in.

If you saw the load on the database you'd maybe not say that! It's something to do with the software which means large threads with lots of posts happening create more load than threads with < 100 pages or so.

Interesting discussion around the snow risk. 850hpa temps aren't the best guide on their own. I'd recommend using the 850-1000 thicknesses for a better indication - you're looking for blues on these maps for any chance of snow, but the deeper the blue the higher the risk.