[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

Sore point. Indeed it was Jan 1st strat charts showed a very strong warming at the 10mb level and

split vortexes down through all levels. We would almost certainly have been looking at different

synoptic charts to the ones on view now with a complete turn around of fortunes. Unfortunately this

was to be a big red herring.

Below is the 10mb temperature chart I saved from the 1st of Jan.

10mb 384 01.01.14 w.gif

My knowledge of strat thread is very "threadbare" (pardon the poor pun) so to speak - but I thought that the charts are a lot more stable and accurate higher up in the atmosphere, and I seem to recall other warming events in other years being predicted at 300+ hours and working their way down to T0 quite often. It just seems that every time there is a glimmer of hope this year, the models find a newer way to to smash each and every cold chance to smithereens, and then dance on the grave for good measure!

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

another pdf on the elusive probability using 500mb anomaly charts

 

update on 500mb anomaly charts 2 jan.pdf

I suspect that this will sound crazy with a very powerful PV sat over Eastern Canada/Western Greenland directing a series of lows across the Atlantic straight at us for weeks now, but it looks to me from your 500 mb charts that the pattern whilst being similar has moved between 5 & 10 degrees west. Do you think that this retrogression will be maintained, and if so, how much of a further correction would be needed to bring cold to our neck of the woods? Thanks in advance.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

t192 sees the high strengthening

Remaining cold for many

With lwow pressure to the north and south of the UK the high could only really move NE

Any chance of the high in the Arctic splitting the vortexs over Canada & Northern Russia?

[Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13]

serious question...

when does the displaced azores high stop being a displaced azores high and become a high in its own right?

what we have had over the last two weeks is a ridge building from the azores high, this then builds and 'leaves home'. the centre is now over the uk... and a linking ridge back to the azores is expected to deteriorate as the cut off low develops, thus cutting off the high from its original position. the high is expected by all models to drift slowly northeastward. now this cannot still be refered to as 'the azores high'.

A bit like the SIberian HIgh in winter migrating west initially towards Russia, then Scandanavia and Eastern Europe before perhaps reaching us. We would not call this a displaced Siberian high or even a Western Europe/UK high - it is what it says on the tin - a Siberian high and likewise an Azores hig

[In Depth Model Discussion and Summaries]

nothing new really in the last 24 hours outputs, the +ve areas continue to be shown but none of the 3 suggest an actual 500mb ridge over/e/se of the UK.

Have been watching for a number of years under a couple of different usernames and can make a reasonable stab at reading 850T, 500hPa and anomalie charts. However I would be grateful if you could give a few tips on reading the 500mb charts. I can understand your your point that if the high pressure to our east is not closed, then the high pressure feature is likely to be transient in nature. However the azores high in the atlantic has been very consistent (albeit ridging closer and pulling away sw on occasion), and often is not shown as a closed loop.Many thanks in advance

[Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13]

Yes it looks like that filling trough would drift away with ridging from the azores/atlantic anticyclone following in, similar to what the gfs has been showing for a while now.